Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[shaky]

Gfs 18z westward correction again!!

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Not many Easterlies in there unfortunately. 

[Ice Day]

Others have beaten me to it, but a growing grend on GFS to reinforce the block a little to delay the Atlantic.  A 84hrs....

 

Viewed in isolation, looks like an easterly could be incoming, but the pattern is too mobile.................at the moment!

Edited January 17, 2016 by Ice Day

[karlos1983]

Well well well, another shift back west of the cold, extending it probably until Friday for the west now  lovely crisp nights. By the time this mild spell arrives we will probably be 2 days away from the next cold spell at this rate lol

12z Vs 18z

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well well well, another shift back west of the cold, extending it probably until Friday for the west now  lovely crisp nights. By the time this mild spell arrives we will probably be 2 days away from the next cold spell at this rate lol

12z Vs 18z

 You just have to laugh at the 'Atlantic breakthrough' looking more delayed and less effective with growing model runs. Perhaps Hurricane Alex not having as much power as it could have had has also been a helping hand in that its not giving the jet enough energy for a huge breakthrough when absorbed? A lot of the more 'progressive' runs from earlier this week like Thursday had the Atlantic steamrolling in tomorrow and it was thought Alex was the reason for such an early breakthrough being shown, which now seems to have been downgraded and delayed since...

Edited January 17, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, the Atlantic is way further west! could do with dry days and very frosty nights

[karlos1983]

By Friday the warmer uppers are trying no nudge in, but it will still be cold at the surface.

 

[Ice Day]

At 102hrs, the 0c 850 line has shifted west, from London to Bristol.  Another example of how the cold keeps being extended bit by bit.

[damianslaw]

Trends from some of the models today is to hold back the atlantic longer - we do have a very cold pool developing to our NE, and at this time of year they are much harder to shift than earlier on in the winter, 'as the days lengthen the cold strengthens'. Typically the latter part of the winter sees a much drier theme take hold, February can be a very dry month.. I'm seeing signs the atlantic breakthrough could be a rather weak stunted affair and shortlived.. those heights to the NE aren't going to disappear quickly.

Keep an eye on the azores high and how it behaves, a link up with scandi heights could easily be the form horse with the Jetstream carrying fronts further to the NW.

 

[Methuselah]

IMO, the upcoming battle between maritime and continental airmasses has been a bugbear, for some time now. Will the continental air win out? I don't know. I guess I favour, with my head, a Scandinavian trough-east Atlantic ridge scenario - with winds from between NW and NE (depending on the track of LPs) - but, anywho, things seem to be progressing in a way not too dissimilar to what GP was suggesting??

[shaky]

Temps must be pretty cold day and night on gfs 18z for the coming week!!colder dew points from the continent aswell!!

[tight isobar]

For the moment' disregarding the northern hemispherical pattern!  (To which will play ball in latter times)..

The squeeze of pressure rise into icelandic territory and succumbing Atlantic progress. .leaves things VERY open minded @short-mid term analysis! !!

[Hotspur62]

It is interesting how latest GFS is showing Atlantic influence having real difficulty penetrating against the strong block.The East of the UK will have a cold week I think with some hard frosts Tues/Weds night with temps falling to -6 or -7 in favoured frost hollows. This is a trend now that the GFS has shown and along with the ECM showing interesting developments in its latter stages I really feel that it may only be next weekend that has average to slightly above average temps before temps may begin to fall again.

I think the end of the week may well show some promising charts again for week beginning 25th Jan and by then it will be ready for GPs torpedo  !! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

that's some difference to bbc's 12°

[nick sussex]

Oh no not another Russian high tease from the ECM.

In terms of a possible opening the low which is expected to develop near the eastern USA around T120hrs, to get more sharpness to the trough to the west that low needs to amplify as it moves east.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that's some difference to bbc's 12°

12C if you happen to be out in a boat off the West coast of Ireland maybe?

[Ice Day]

Interesting run here.  Heights building in the mid atlantic and is looking quite like the ECM at 144

ECM 

GFS 

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that's some difference to bbc's 12°

Lol I just saw bbc LR forecast at 9.55 and they seem confident that the  Atlantic will push through Friday with temps up to 11 degrees in the South which will last into next weekend. Somebody is going to be wrong...the question is who ?? 

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, Hotspur61 said:

Lol I just saw bbc LR forecast at 9.55 and they seem confident that the  Atlantic will push through Friday with temps up to 11 degrees in the South which will last into next weekend. Somebody is going to be wrong...the question is who ?? 

I'm sure that was put together before tonight's model outputs so who knows if they'll change their tune tomorrow?

[Mair Snaw]

Just a quick one.... is there a particular pattern that the models deal with better?? im guessing they deal with Zonal (horrible word) best as that is our default weather type.. im thinking more Northerly or easterly etc?? i know its a busy time period in here but was just thinking will we see another week of model mayhem from a different type of set up ??

[Ice Day]

GFS 12z vs 18z at 168.  Quite a big difference!

12z 

18z 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I'm sure that was put together before tonight's model outputs so who knows if they'll change their tune tomorrow?

Well, it's a classic battleground scenario, isn't it? From what I've seen, I'd guess that mild air will win-out, in the short-term; but - after that - who knows?

[Chris K]

14 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Lol I just saw bbc LR forecast at 9.55 and they seem confident that the  Atlantic will push through Friday with temps up to 11 degrees in the South which will last into next weekend. Somebody is going to be wrong...the question is who ?? 

 

13 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I'm sure that was put together before tonight's model outputs so who knows if they'll change their tune tomorrow?

Short term, the colder air holds on longer, but the 18z GFS shows surface temps hitting 10-11c in SW corners Friday and again on Saturday further NE to cover most of the SW quadrant of the UK...so the BBC forecast sounds about right to me and not sure if either are wrong based on tonight's outputs? ( I am aware there will still be changes likely and I am not suggesting this will be sustained longer term). 

Remaining chilly/cold the further North & East you are. My key interest is what happens to that High to our East...hopefully not sit there for ages...

 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Chris K

[Cheshire Freeze]

Could be a good run this in FI. Few milder days and then....

[Derbyshire Snow]

My take on the synoptics for what its worth .We really need this stubborn high to retreat east over Europe ( which is doing no favours now just delaying this eventual mild spell) to allow the depressions in the atlantic to move right through and reset our area of the world, possibly then allow a north and eventually north easterly to develop. While thats there i believe we will struggle to get any real cold as its unlikely to move north. There are little heights over SCandinavia so depressions will keep trying to push north of us. I think reset needed.