Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Snowman.]

The GEFS have been hinting at height rises north for a few days, like I said yesterday don't be surprised if the OPs start getting interesting in FI low and behold they are!

[Timmytour]

Not a great deal of difference at this stage though if anything the Atlantic is slightly more progressive and Azores High coming into play earlier

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Timmytour
typo

[Hull snow]

Things look intresting for later in the month definitely things afoot

[Timmytour]

Just now, Hull snow said:

Things look intresting for later in the month definitely things afoot

Just a long as it's afoot of snow!

Such a different run...albeit with some similar ideas...... but what chances of an undercut against that?

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Ha.

Would be handy to see your locations @wishingforsnow @lukesluckybunch.perhaps given your location 'may' highlights your preferences? ! Also. 

I split my time between Bristol and the South East, but wouldn't heights to the Northwest be more beneficial for keeping Atlantic energy south of the UK as a whole?

[Kieran]

 

High extending into greenland at 192,  could be an attempt at an undercut. Interesting trend emerging

 

Edit: Atlantic wins out at 210 but wouldn't take much for the Atlantic to get blocked off and that cold to our east to nudge our way.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Kieran

[Timmytour]

12 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I split my time between Bristol and the South East, but wouldn't heights to the Northwest be more beneficial for keeping Atlantic energy south of the UK as a whole?

Just to say...if you put your location in your profile or a signature you show, it might stop anyone having to go looking for that post where you revealed where you are when the cold going hopefully gets really going

Edited January 18, 2016 by Timmytour
typo

[mickpips]

9 minutes ago, Kieran said:

 

High extending into greenland at 192,  could be an attempt at an undercut. Interesting trend emerging

 

Edit: Atlantic wins out at 210 but wouldn't take much for the Atlantic to get blocked off and that cold to our east to nudge our way.

The cold to our East ?   There is very little cold to tap in to from my reading and if anybody is looking for snow at that time period , 850's conducive to snowfall are 100's of miles away

[Alexis]

So many small lows being spawned and spinning around in the Atlantic, small changes would have big consequences down the line. I wouldn't pay much attention post 144 as usual at the moment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Then the ECM T192hrs:

The majority of the energy is heading ne.I

However I'd like to see that T168hrs timeframe built on rather than waiting for a couple of more days for another possible chance.

 

 

 

Nick

That shallow Iceland High is of interest here as will either slide SE and keep Atlantic at bay or will force them on southerly track acros UK IMO and I think it is the point too where outputs will show a critical change [if they are to change] of where we go.  RJS picked up on this attempt by mild to re-assert but to ultimately fail reloading to what we still believe will be the coldest hit of winter.

Looking at the models, can anyone really say where we are going?  I can't

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, mickpips said:

The cold to our East ?   There is very little cold to tap in to from my reading and if anybody is looking for snow at that time period , 850's conducive to snowfall are 100's of miles away

Its pretty cold to our east and even se uk chilly.

but the most striking thing is the squeeze on the vortex ridge building on the west side or nw side of the states Canada and east side of Greenland so strat warming could well happen.

for the gfs it's not an Atlantic dominated run 

[wishingforsnow]

UKMO 12z now shows HP building north of the UK towards Scandinavia 

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[booferking]

Always seem,s to be the same  for this wee Island promising signs of a trend something good on the cards it shows heights build nearly get there but then it drops the idea only for them to reappear and shows the holy grail for a few runs then when the reliable comes a water down event takes place and the Atlantic bulldozes over the top of it.

That,s what i see happening here hope i am wrong but been here to many times before.

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

UKMO 12z now shows HP building north of the UK towards Scandinavia 

Ukmo looks dreadful in my opinion Greenland swamped by the pv lower heights don't think ukmo would lead on to a Scandinavia high it does how ever suggest settled cool with frost 

away from the nw

Edited January 18, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[Lukesluckybunch]

13 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Its pretty cold to our east and even se uk chilly.

but the most striking thing is the squeeze on the vortex ridge building on the west side or nw side of the states Canada and east side of Greenland so strat warming could well happen.

for the gfs it's not an Atlantic dominated run 

That's one positive its not dominated by the Atlantic,a few tweeks here and there with the high pressures then we could get lucky!

[Southender]

I think the only thing we can be fairly certain of is, it looks pretty dry as a whole (bar some rain around this weekend) with lots of HP around our locale.

Whether that moves into a more favourable orientation for another cold shot late Jan/Early Feb remains to be seen...

[Singularity]

UKMO is pretty similar to the GFS 12z det. at day 6, with the same issues going forward. Get a sharper ridge in the western N. Atlantic and perhaps the split with a low slipping SE can be achieved as per the 12z JMA, but at the moment that remains the only det. run to head in that direction.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECM det. have a go tonight or tomorrow, followed by the usual question of amplification bias.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Singularity

[wishingforsnow]

20 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Ukmo looks dreadful in my opinion Greenland swamped by the pv lower heights don't think ukmo would lead on to a Scandinavia high it does how ever suggest settled cool with frost 

away from the nw

To me it shows a fairly dry outlook but with a few tweaks if things develop in the right way, its another sign of a possible shot at further cold. The PV looks reinvigorated but that is a common precursor to a breakdown and a SSW. The question remains to be seen whether further UKMO runs will go further with building the high pressure over Greenland or Scandinavia and a weakened vortex. Then we should be in business. Meanwhile the High Pressure should also keep low pressure systems from bulldozing over the UK as they did for the previous 2 and a half months. 

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Mucka]

There has been a few signs of an Omega block setting up around day 10 but if that signal is correct then positioning will be crucial.

If the block is over the UK then we will have to wait for any chance of a cold feed but if it sets up further West we will be locked into a polar air flow and if it sets up further East then we will likely a continental flow though more S/SE than Easterly.

If it happens my preference would be for a West based block as the guarantees cold uppers but I would much rather it be East based than central based (over the UK) as we will then need to wait for further developments.

As things stand the models seem to be favouring and central/East based Omega block should it happen but because it is FI there is room for quite big changes in how the models play around with the prospect of renewed MLB/HLB toward end of January.

The prospects for February cold are good when we see blocking in FI as a srong theme but we could still get unlucky and have blocking set up in the wrong areas.

Image taken from GFS 06z control run day 10.

 

*For some reason won't let me copy image here so will try in Edit.

Edit. Nope I really frickin hate this new forum software, full of bugs, had to copy URL address to get it to work

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Mucka

[booferking]

Control run GFS going to have a go here we need that low in Atlantic to phase with the vortex better to help pump the high and also the jet needs digs south at the right time and the northern arm weakens.

GFS Control not to dissimilar to the JMA.

Edited January 18, 2016 by booferking

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Control run GFS going to have a go here we need that low in Atlantic to phase with the vortex better to help pump the high and also the jet needs digs south at the right time and the northern arm weakens.

And thinking in more general terms - virtually ever GFS member favours some form of MLB to be influential at end of 192 so the signal for renewed blocking toward end of January couldn't be much stronger.

Given that I would expect the signal for cold to gradually strengthen as well but even with blocking cold is not guaranteed.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

Interesting GFS 12hrs run compared to an underwhelming UKMO at T144hrs.

The UKMO flattens out that more amplified east coast USA low and is much more progressive, this progressiveness has shown up in many 12hrs runs over recent days.

Which its subsequently had to backtrack from the next morning.

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Lets just hope by the start of February we will be all wondering how many lows can track along the south coast. GEFS are starting to turn out some lovely looking charts ( if your looking for cold) but as was said further up they all do show areas of high pressure situated around the UK. So even if we did get high pressure of some sort were not guaranteed cold weather at all. 

Edited January 18, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[Ali1977]

About 6 really nice charts for the 1st of Feb - ensemble graph should look better than the last one.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

 

Lets just hope by the start of February we will be all wondering how many lows can track along the south coast. GEFS are starting to turn out some lovely looking charts ( if your looking for cold) but as was said further up they all do show areas of high pressure situated around the UK .

wow why do these charts never seem to come off ,ever .:(