Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[gottolovethisweather]

On 15/01/2016 at 6:47 PM, gottolovethisweather said:

Indeed the forecast 850s aren't astonishing in truth though. Bar the weekend when parts of the East of England will feel genuinely bitter with Maximum Temperatures around of only 2c or so, especially on Saturday. The main story other than a dying front moving through will be the dry frosty crisp picture, overnight minimums of -10 or lower in some parts.  Come Monday the warming uppers (relatively speaking) very very slowly transfer their way Eastwards to all parts come Thursday. During Monday the only snow-producing 850s left are out towards the North and East of the UK. However, I ask this of you Mucka and perhaps one or two of the more experienced posters in here, am I painting a realistic picture here?

Sadly this doesn't appear to have been far off the mark then some three days on, especially so given the general air of excitement about the place that evening which I broadly wasn't understanding at the time. Tis easy to get lost in the hype sometimes in here, take note if you struggle to read the many different chart types or a complete novice at this forecasting game.

 

Back to the here and now, it does seem the milder incursion of a breakdown will pollute all parts by Friday now. By my reckoning that still made this a ten day cold spell, broadly speaking. Before then, some cold days and cold to very cold nights for a lot of the UK when overnight conditions allow. The dry signal is most welcome as is the abundant sunshine which will hopefully come with it. The longer-term prospects I haven't been contemplating, so I will stick with the trusted few in here and hope that us coldies who did miss out on the snow will get another shot at it before too long. The milder blip has incidentally been well modelled by the strat guys and by those well versed in the MJO etc from a good few days back now. If we can believe them and trust in them, our next shot at cold won't be too many days and weeks away.

I reported a snow day (flakes seen falling but didn't settle) on Saturday so can't complain too much when you think where we were, barely a fortnight ago. 

Edited January 18, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM is certainly pointing to a pretty pooe setup, ties in the with bbc monthly outlook updated today.

GFS looks better with more potential.

BBC monthly outlook was probably put together before these recent model trends came out and if there are further significant developments in the models this coming week it will change next week. The same monthly outlook predicted a mild wet January throughout and look what we just got? Even if it wasn't a notable cold spell its more seasonable than anything in their initial monthly predictions which are vague and to be taken with a pinch of salt after the first week.

Tonight's ECM and GFS start terrible initially but they do improve later in the run. The question is still up in the air whether the 'block' forming will provide mild or cold settled weather, and as ever, 'more runs needed'

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[nick sussex]

I think if this was December then high pressure close by perhaps with some surface cold would be okay but a period of that now just eats into more of what remains of the winter.

Of course dry and cold is better than wet and mild IMO but at this point I'd be looking for cold and snow. The PV really needs to displace further to the nw to give a chance of an east/ne flow.

[mb018538]

At the moment I would favour mild....though if it plonks itself over the top of us then of course we could have inversions setting up and the like. ECM is pretty poor, but is only one run - the ECM ensemble may paint a better picture!

[tight isobar]

Just a couple of perturbation s courtesy of gfs 12z...

Well everything has to start somewhere. 

 

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

At the moment I would favour mild....though if it plonks itself over the top of us then of course we could have inversions setting up and the like. ECM is pretty poor, but is only one run - the ECM ensemble may paint a better picture!

hope the op was right at the top of the chart,its the mildest ecm run for long time,hope its not a new trend,stil ecm fl never reliable anyway thank goodness

[chris55]

The general pattern doesn't have a strong zonal/Atlantic look to it IMO. December seems to have delivered enough of that! 

Give it a few days and I'm sure there will be plenty to talk about.

 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hope the op was right at the top of the chart,its the mildest ecm run for long time,hope its not a new trend,stil ecm fl never reliable anyway thank goodness

It cant be a trend until it has support and shows for a consistent set of runs.

[SLEETY]

Just now, chris55 said:

The general pattern doesn't have a strong zonal/Atlantic look to it IMO. December seems to have delivered enough of that! 

Give it a few days and I'm sure there will be plenty to talk about.

 

hopefully not how mild its going to be,where is GP when you need him lol

[wishingforsnow]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just a couple of perturbation s courtesy of gfs 12z...

Well everything has to start somewhere. 

 

Taking into account the models' tendency to be 'progressive' I think that for one thing, the Bartlett high on the ECM was an exaggeration in the same way that those rogue GFS runs showing the Atlantic breakdown of the cold spell in the midst of Hurricane Alex and return of the Euroslug for today were a few days ago. So perhaps its overdoing the impact of the 'mild blip' in between blocks.

But at the end of both tonights ECM and GFS runs there is potential and some tasty outcomes for cold showing, as in those GFS charts above. I still feel like something big is about to happen either at the turn of the month or further into February. It may be a cold settled block, it may be snowmageddeon or even just a period of stagnant, drier than average even if mild weather would make a difference to the crud we had to endure at the beginning of Winter.

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Banbury]

On 17/01/2016 at 0:50 PM, IPredictASnowStorm said:

29 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Not normally a pessimist but looking ahead with some fear, the output is evolving into a mild evolution to mid February  

How do you work that out/???

 

 

[Derbyshire Snow]

Looking at the models today, still no change generally. Jet stream still strong sending lows to the north towards the north of Scandinavia. This high pressure over Europe is doing a great job of deflecting them northwards... we must get this meandering high  to slip away south east , that one has done its job. Heights midterm are not developing again strong enough over Greenland , still too much energy leaving the US. Heights on last nights GFS were much better in that region and even showed energy trying to push  west of Greenland. However the models have ditched that idea temporarily

 

Looking forward to tonights output though. There are signs we could get something good

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[tight isobar]

^^ not sure about tonight's given both variations and slow progression of change ie Atlantic inroads. .

More to be eyeballing cross suites over the next few days for hopefully more' decisive possible agree, on forming blocks...be it northeast/northwest. .....

[IPredictASnowStorm]

13 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Looking at the models today, still no change generally. Jet stream still strong sending lows to the north towards the north of Scandinavia. This high pressure over Europe is doing a great job of deflecting them northwards... we must get this meandering high  to slip away south east , that one has done its job. Heights midterm are not developing again strong enough over Greenland , still too much energy leaving the US. Heights on last nights GFS were much better in that region and even showed energy trying to push  west of Greenland. However the models have ditched that idea temporarily

 

Looking forward to tonights output though. There are signs we could get something good

 

It is showing the same as it did when we got the snowfall in 2010

[Jason M]

A few properly cold GEFS tonight. Interestingly they are probably the first genuinely deep cold charts I've seen for days. 

Doesnt prove much of itself, maybe gives a little hope though. The key is whether we can shift the heights over Iberia. Shift that anomaly and we might be in business. Trouble is, it's always been a tough pattern to shift once in place.  

 

[Derbyshire Snow]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

^^ not sure about tonight's given both variations and slow progression of change ie Atlantic inroads. .

More to be eyeballing cross suites over the next few days for hopefully more' decisive possible agree, on forming blocks...be it northeast/northwest. .....

i mentioned tonights output might be interesting because last nights run was tantalisingly close to being really good. Just interested to see if this evenings  runs continue with this afternoons output or show some of the developments that were being  produced last night.

 

We will see. 10 days at least though i think before we see changes to much colder weather in UK. but hopeful and certainly not pessimistic

[Derbyshire Snow]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

A few properly cold GEFS tonight. Interestingly they are probably the first genuinely deep cold charts I've seen for days. 

Doesnt prove much of itself, maybe gives a little hope though. The key is whether we can shift the heights over Iberia. Shift that anomaly and we might be in business. Trouble is, it's always been a tough pattern to shift once in place.  

 

totally agree. these heights to our south and south east are a nuisance

[Ali1977]

Let's hope for a SSW event late this month, still showing in the GFS.....Looks quite strong too.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Hi would just like to point out somthing, why is it that the gfs is considered a lesser model to the ecm..?reason I say this because all the main websites BBC weather ,the weather outlook and so on...they all follow temperatures from what the gfs displays and not the ecm.so surely this makes gfs the main the main model to follow am I correct?

[swilliam]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hi would just like to point out somthing, why is it that the gfs is considered a lesser model to the ecm..?reason I say this because all the main websites BBC weather ,the weather outlook and so on...they all follow temperatures from what the gfs displays and not the ecm.so surely this makes gfs the main the main model to follow am I correct?

No - those that have full access to other models (ECM, UKMO  etc.) use these (i.e. met office, BBC). The reason why GFS is used by many other websites is that it is freely available.

Edited January 18, 2016 by swilliam

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening!.... Ok the 12zs ops were not that inspiring for deep cold , but the blocking is there for sure to the East. The Atlantic has been halted across the nation except for the far west and it was only a few days ago that the Atlantic was the form horse. Fridays rain has been delayed time and time again. I Myself have been roped in about the Atlantic coming in looks like Im wrong! Tomorrows charts will show big changes...  The end of January and early February are statistically the coldest time in the Northern Hemisphere.  With reasonable confidence of Strat Warming and that breaking the Polar Vortex to pieces its fair to say we have some good chances of seeing some deep Winter weather in the weeks ahead....

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, swilliam said:

No - those that have full access to other models (ECM, UKMO  etc.) use these (i.e. met office, BBC). The reason why GFS is used by many other websites is that it is freely available.

Okok I see,perhaps the ecm is better on picking up pressure patterns but the gfs is better for temperature ?..just a thought

[Derbyshire Snow]

i personally prefer the gfs over the ecm. The only problem i have, it often seems in FI to want to try to strengthen energy in the atlantic, usually  more than other models. FI is however never to be trusted anyway.

Its natural that a lot of  cold lovers prefer the model that gives the most wanted  synoptics at the time.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening!.... Ok the 12zs ops were not that inspiring for deep cold , but the blocking is there for sure to the East. The Atlantic has been halted across the nation except for the far west and it was only a few days ago that the Atlantic was the form horse. Fridays rain has been delayed time and time again. I Myself have been roped in about the Atlantic coming in looks like Im wrong! Tomorrows charts will show big changes...  The end of January and early February are statistically the coldest time in the Northern Hemisphere.  With reasonable confidence of Strat Warming and that breaking the Polar Vortex to pieces its fair to say we have some good chances of seeing some deep Winter weather in the weeks ahead....

Superb models!

Interestingly, I don't know if this means anything but my weather app shows on Wednesday day/night temperature slowly decreasing again (from 12 degrees and 9 at night on Saturday to 8 degrees during the day and 4 at night on Wednesday) following a brief spike in temperatures in low double figures and rainy days from the weekend to Tuesday. Wonder if that correlates to a drop in temperature after a mild blip as has been predicted by the models?

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[mushymanrob]

Forget the  vagaries of the op runs,  the big news for cold lovers is that todays noaa anomaly charts now keep the high very close to the uk,  they dont allow the mild southwesterlies to take hold and stick.  Theres a great opportunity on these for a scandinavian high and a very cold evolution.  Of course further runs are needed to consolidate this shift but imho those of you seeking cold would be justified in raising hopes.! 

 

Sorry,  cant post them,  im on my tablet.