Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

wow why do these charts never seem to come off ,ever .:(

 

Well they have happened in the past. But you need the perfect set up and balancing act between the block and the Atlantic trying to get in.

Too much of one or the other and you either get the block too strong and diverting low pressure further south or low pressure comes in from the sw at the weak point of the block.

At this point I'd settle for a strong ne flow and -15 uppers! lol Good for the UK and me here and we're all happy then!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

At this point I would favour some form of Euro/Scandi block developing as we end January, this could be the mild or cold variety depending on how the high develops and hence the flow we get into the UK.

          

          

 

There is scope to develop a colder pattern by either being able to pool a cut off area of lo heights westwards from Western Russia (Easterly solution) or drop another deep trough using the same cold pool to our east which is close enough to allow a cold north to north easterly to develop.

A few examples at day 10

          

 

At this time frame we need to concentrate on firstly establishing a link between the Azores ridge and the high over Russia cutting off the cold pool to our east. The second is two fold, firstly seeing a second push of high pressure align at close to northerly as possible, the second is hoping that the cold pool to our east behaves itself and doesn't do anything which will result in us being stuck under a Euro/Scandi high.

Phase 1 (Azores/Russian high link) has a good chance if we go by a few model outputs.

GFS/UKMO

          

The GEM never really gets this going with constant interactions between the cold pool and the main area of low heights over the Pole. Hence its very poor week 2 charts.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[chris55]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

wow why do these charts never seem to come off ,ever .:(

 

They do occasionally lol!

And while we wait I'm liking the GFS 12z, the Atlantic hardly makes inroads and the general theme of the run is DRY, that pleases me ha.

We are just getting out of the ground with a huge extension on our latest property venture, so cool settled days are ideal really, frosts i can deal with, though incessant rain is a nightmare.

When it comes to snow though......im happy for a few days lost to the weather!! And GFS ens showing the first signs of the next cold shot out towards the end of the month into feb.

 

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well they have happened in the past. But you need the perfect set up and balancing act between the block and the Atlantic trying to get in.

Too much of one or the other and you either get the block too strong and diverting low pressure further south or low pressure comes in from the sw at the weak point of the block.

At this point I'd settle for a strong ne flow and -15 uppers! lol Good for the UK and me here and we're all happy then!

 

yes lol,well march 2013 did deliver perfect set up ,but i dont see that being replicated yet in the models,its amazing in the UK that to get a really decent Easterly you need so many things to fall exactly in the correct place ,or it game over .Hope ECM continues from its past two runs

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

yes lol,well march 2013 did deliver perfect set up ,but i dont see that being replicated yet in the models,its amazing in the UK that to get a really decent Easterly you need so many things to fall exactly in the correct place ,or it game over .Hope ECM continues from its past two runs

Yes the easterly sagas are a point of much pain for cold and snow lovers in here. Not just getting the easterly but whether it will be a convective type or the dull snow grains variety.

Edited January 18, 2016 by nick sussex

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, wishingforsnow said:

UKMO 12z now shows HP building north of the UK towards Scandinavia 

Doesn't look pretty, but look at the heat going up the side if Norway - now judging by recent model performance this drive could get even further north, punching more heights into the Arctic as it did at the start of the month. Which would probably set off another round of "bingo cold" for northern hemisphere area at our lattitude.

In short, there's no concrete freeze up on the horizon - but it isn't as far out of reach as may seem. Luck is always useful, of course.

[mb018538]

The GFS 12z ensemble looks good for the start of our next chapter - a few really cold members emerging again. Let's hope they start to pick up on something as we move nearer the time!

[Weather Observer]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well they have happened in the past. But you need the perfect set up and balancing act between the block and the Atlantic trying to get in.

Too much of one or the other and you either get the block too strong and diverting low pressure further south or low pressure comes in from the sw at the weak point of the block.

At this point I'd settle for a strong ne flow and -15 uppers! lol Good for the UK and me here and we're all happy then!

 

January 29th 1954 was such a day. I was a tot, but it started my interest in cold weather and snow. It snowed all day in Hampshire with no wind and temperatures well below freezing. Seemed to me like sugar falling out of a grey sky.

The charts for the 18th and the 29th show how quickly it can change in what I believe was an El Niño year.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Weathervane

[wishingforsnow]

12 minutes ago, chris55 said:

They do occasionally lol!

And while we wait I'm liking the GFS 12z, the Atlantic hardly makes inroads and the general theme of the run is DRY, that pleases me ha.

We are just getting out of the ground with a huge extension on our latest property venture, so cool settled days are ideal really, frosts i can deal with, though incessant rain is a nightmare.

When it comes to snow though......im happy for a few days lost to the weather!! And GFS ens showing the first signs of the next cold shot out towards the end of the month into feb.

 

'Dry' is what pleases me too, and in fact most of the UK especially Cumbrians - the last thing we need right now is more prolonged heavy rain. Also it will be nice to not have to turn on the light at 1pm as its dark and chucking it down outside every single day.

Then, comes the prospect of getting a more sustained, prolonged cold over the UK which, should we be lucky enough that the best outcome shown by the models come off would provide ample chilly temperatures and a UK wide snow event. I feel that like Summer 2013 with hot weather, we are well overdue a good winter and now our luck regarding recent miserable mild/wet (2013/14 and 2015/16 part 1 only hopefully) or just uninteresting and occasionally cold but not enough for snow or lying snow for most places  (2014/15) is about to change 

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[wishingforsnow]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Doesn't look pretty, but look at the heat going up the side if Norway - now judging by recent model performance this drive could get even further north, punching more heights into the Arctic as it did at the start of the month. Which would probably set off another round of "bingo cold" for northern hemisphere area at our lattitude.

In short, there's no concrete freeze up on the horizon - but it isn't as far out of reach as may seem. Luck is always useful, of course.

Not pretty yet, but as is famously said 'more runs needed'

[blizzard81]

Deary me, no wonder no one has commented on the ecm 12z. The stuff of nightmares for coldies!

[nick sussex]

It's like the threads been stunned into silence!

Not sure what to make of this ECM run, quite a bit different to its earlier 00hrs run.

The GFS 12hrs run trended towards the earlier ECM 00hrs run, the ECM 12hrs has gone a totally different route.

[chris55]

Its a lull in the output lol. Let everyone draw breath, and enjoy a few frosts and some settled days. I'm sure winter 2016 has plenty to offer as we head through the second half.

[Ali1977]

MMM, can someone please post the ECM ens later, only if the Op is an mild outlier though!! Not what I expected, thought we may see something colder.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[Long haul to mild]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Deary me, no wonder no one has commented on the ecm 12z. The stuff of nightmares for coldies!

Yes, pretty grim for cold as early as T120:

 

 

Eventually goes to a UK HP, which drifts East afterwards:

 

 

 

 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It's like the threads been stunned into silence!

Not sure what to make of this ECM run, quite a bit different to its earlier 00hrs run.

The GFS 12hrs run trended towards the earlier ECM 00hrs run, the ECM 12hrs has gone a totally different route.

I know what to make of it but I can't repeat it on this forum lol. I am lost for words so all I will say is "I hope it is completely and utterly wrong" Otherwise it will be an incredibly long way back to anything resembling cold!

[nick sussex]

I could sum up the ECM 12hrs run as ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!

Off to count the cracks in the ceiling which would be both more interesting and less frustrating!

Somehow I can't see the ECM reproducing this level of dullness tomorrow, hopefully!

[wishingforsnow]

12 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Yes, pretty grim for cold as early as T120:

 

 

Eventually goes to a UK HP, which drifts East afterwards:

 

 

 

 

Hmmm its not great initially but the main thing is there is still High Pressure building north of the UK showing on this latter stages of the run, which could mean an increased chance of dry weather even if its not cold... Yet

Hopefully its just a rogue run and not the beginning of another cold v mild 'model standoff'. Last week and a half was exhausting enough and the only better thing is either way the outlook doesn't look overly wet. 

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[beefy201]

On ‎14‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 7:55 AM, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

 

Not normally a pessimist but looking ahead with some fear, the output is evolving into a mild evolution to mid February  

[wishingforsnow]

20 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Not normally a pessimist but looking ahead with some fear, the output is evolving into a mild evolution to mid February  

Based on a few runs showing a mild block vs runs showing a cold block I think it's a brave call to say that right now the evolution is solely mild for next month. Also there is the higher probability of the SSW next month to take into account on top of everything.

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[phil nw.]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I could sum up the ECM 12hrs run as ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!

Off to count the cracks in the ceiling which would be both more interesting and less frustrating!

Somehow I can't see the ECM reproducing this level of dullness tomorrow, hopefully!

Not great is it Nick?I guess we all knew this less cold period was lurking but the hope is that we see any high near the UK in a week or so such as the ens have been showing.In fact from that pov the 12z GFS mean is along those lines.

even that has more ridging than the ECM Op!

If we can get that sort of pattern then temps at the surface could be quite cold and we would be better placed for any further Amplification of the jet upstream later.

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Not normally a pessimist but looking ahead with some fear, the output is evolving into a mild evolution to mid February  

ECM is certainly pointing to a pretty poor setup, ties in the with bbc monthly outlook updated today.

GFS looks better with more potential.

Edited January 18, 2016 by northwestsnow

[ScottSnow]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Doesn't look pretty, but look at the heat going up the side if Norway - now judging by recent model performance this drive could get even further north, punching more heights into the Arctic as it did at the start of the month. Which would probably set off another round of "bingo cold" for northern hemisphere area at our lattitude.

In short, there's no concrete freeze up on the horizon - but it isn't as far out of reach as may seem. Luck is always useful, of course.

Yes don't think cold will be far away. May end up under a high pressure situation with cold nights.

I think any cold will probably come from the east next time around.

Still lying snow here in the higher ground of Tyne and Wear so not a bad little cold spell all in all. Certainly better than anything past couple of years.

[blizzard81]

The bad thing is the ecm is not the only bad op run tonight. Gem and gfs were also terrible. We have got to hope this is not a new trend to mild as we hurtle towards Feb. 

Edited January 18, 2016 by blizzard81

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Think everyone is shattered Nick...However my fav Indian model shows Eastern promise

 

If I was going to go into emergency spin mode. Then the ECM T168hrs onwards shows some scope for improvements with more digging south of the upstream troughing, the shortwave which drops into the Baltic regions later might do so further west.

I have my doubts as to whether this run will be replicated again however, it had that rabbit caught in the headlights look about!