Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[tight isobar]

Well in all seriousness' I reat wouldn't be 'at all' surprised to see the Azoret/iberian ridge much further west and puncturing through Scandinavia out into siberian reaches. ..or am I just hopeful? ??!!!

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, Chris K said:

 

Short term, the colder air holds on longer, but the 18z GFS shows surface temps hitting 10-11c in SW corners Friday and again on Saturday a further NE to cover most of the SW quadrant of the UK...so the BBC forecast sounds about right to me and not sure if either are wrong based on tonight's outputs? ( I am aware there will still be changes likely and I am not suggesting this will be sustained longer term). 

Remaining chilly/cold the further North & East you are. My key interest is what happens to that High to our East...hopefully not sit there for ages...

 

 

Hmmm yeah I'm thinking the Atlantic 'breakhthrough' might only make it to the far W/SW corners of the UK after all? So technically they're not wrong there but most of the UK stays cold.

[Liam J]

So the cold spell is going bite back this week with some very cold nights possible under high pressure with light winds right through to next weekend, ice days possible as well. 

Even a week today hardly mild looking is it with afternoon temps in low single figures for many, milder further west...

[MR EXTREMES]

17 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFS 12z vs 18z at 168.  Quite a big difference!

12z 

18z 

Another developing low around the Azores which also leads me to think maybe leading towards heights cutting into Scandinavia 

Edited January 17, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[Chris K]

17 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

My take on the synoptics for what its worth .We really need this stubborn high to retreat east over Europe ( which is doing no favours now just delaying this eventual mild spell) to allow the depressions in the atlantic to move right through and reset our area of the world, possibly then allow a north and eventually north easterly to develop. While thats there i believe we will struggle to get any real cold as its unlikely to move north. There are little heights over SCandinavia so depressions will keep trying to push north of us. I think reset needed.

As far as i am aware, there's no such thing as a 'reset' in weather. It doesn't work like that. In fact I would prefer the High to stay put and at least have a chance of moving somewhere more favorable later on. If we had the Atlantic rolling through, it would likely be caused by a strengthening Jet Stream and result in unsettled spells dominating for whatever time period. I personally do not think that would help at all, if it is cold weather you seek, because that occurring would suggest a more zonal flow.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Chris K

[nick sussex]

Looking at the position of the PV any cold has to come from the east/ne.

So the Euro high ridging north looks like being a way to get there. That eastern USA low is an important player in any evolution as that runs east and amplifies.

Hopefully any milder interlude will be shortlived and we can get there sooner rather than later.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I have just run through the animation on the latest 18z GFS and the Atlantic doesn't 'get in' at all, certainly not across Eastern Britain anyway, hence why my part of the world is struggling to reach 5c even at this time next week.

Assuming it is on the right track (a leap of faith given it is the 18z GFS!) the next question mark is whether the heights to the East can push either North or West sufficiently to pull that cold pool back West?

A chilly week coming up to say the least and as matters stand, I am not confident of any meaningful warm up at all...

Edited January 17, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[Yarmy]

5 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

My take on the synoptics for what its worth .We really need this stubborn high to retreat east over Europe ( which is doing no favours now just delaying this eventual mild spell) to allow the depressions in the atlantic to move right through and reset our area of the world, possibly then allow a north and eventually north easterly to develop. While thats there i believe we will struggle to get any real cold as its unlikely to move north. There are little heights over SCandinavia so depressions will keep trying to push north of us. I think reset needed.

I asked a couple of years back whether there was any evidence that the so called zonal reset could presage a colder outlook. JH replied that, in his many decades of meteorological experience, the answer is a resounding NOPE.

[TomDav]

Building heights over Scandi

[Derbyshire Snow]

18 minutes ago, Chris K said:

As far as i am aware, there's no such thing as a 'reset' in weather. It doesn't work like that. In fact I would prefer the High to stay put and at least have a chance of moving somewhere more favorable later on. If we had the Atlantic rolling through, it would caused by a strengthening Jet Stream and result in unsettled spells dominating for whatever time period. I personally do not think that would help at all, if it is cold weather you seek, because that occurring would suggest a more zonal flow.

my thinking was that we need some heights to develop over Greenland and to the north and then depressions would therefore gradually have to move on  a more southerly track, eventually far enough south to bring in north easterlies and easterlies. I think theres a much better chance of cold reaching our shores  than trying to get this easterly through just  a Scandinavian high developing. This high pressure over GReenland would then hopefully encourage a SCandinavian high to develop and then give a real true potent blast.

 

Interesting GFS developing but those heights still needed over Greenland to give encouragement to the European high. Depressions are trying to track further south 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

I have just run through the animation in the latest 18z GFS and the Atlantic doesn't 'get in' at all, certainly not across Eastern Britain anyway, hence why my part of the world is struggling to reach 5c even at this time next week.

Assuming it is on the right track (a leap of faith given it is the 18z GFS!) the next question mark is whether the heights to the East can push either North or West sufficiently to pull that cold pool back West?

A chilly week coming up to say the least and as matters stand, I am not confident of any meaningful warm up at all...

I think any warm up is likely to be short lived and definitely not a complete zonal horrorfest judging by recent model output.

[Yarmy]

10 minutes ago, TomDav said:

Building heights over Scandi

Tom, are these your own home grown charts? They look great.

[Argyle1980]

The JMA is well on board with this cracking set up.

The GFS and ECM is also toying with something coming in to the NE at months end.

one cold snap over and the building blocks being layed for something special maybe.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Argyle1980
Adding a question

[Argyle1980]

Correct me if I'm wrong but do the uk met office look at the JMA?

Edited January 17, 2016 by Argyle1980
Spelling

[Derbyshire Snow]

that is a great set up for a long cold spell. Can we get there, long way to go

[Argyle1980]

1 minute ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

that is a great set up for a long cold spell. Can we get there, long way to go

Again it's end frames but it does pair up with the ideas of others around this time frame for hights up to our NE..... Again one to watch and to keep us all more positive .

[Derbyshire Snow]

4 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

Again it's end frames but it does pair up with the ideas of others around this time frame for hights up to our NE..... Again one to watch and to keep us all more positive .

Agreed I believe thats where our next blast of cold needs the greenland high to develop.. Jet stream needs to push south or even better cut off

 

more runs needed:-)

Edited January 17, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Argyle1980]

1 minute ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Agreed I believe thats where our next blast of cold needs the greenland high to develop.. Jet stream needs to push south or even better cut off

Well it's a step in the right direction my friend and we all know a good trend is our friend.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Derbyshire Snow said:

Agreed I believe thats where our next blast of cold needs the greenland high to develop.. Jet stream needs to push south or even better cut off

With where the vortex is positioned its very unlikely we'll see a proper Greenland high initially, many colder spells have started with a Scandi high and retrogression with then a trough dropping south into Scandi and then pressure rising over Greenland.

The historically good spells had that type of high pressure  musical chairs for a lengthy period. I'm not for a moment suggesting that's round the corner! lol

We first need the Euro high to ridge north in response to troughing digging far south into the Atlantic and then hope for a change of luck which is long overdue, regardless of this more seasonal spell it hasn't delivered more nationwide and has just papered over the cracks.

Crunchy snow and sub zero maxima is whats needed to salvage this winter.

[Derbyshire Snow]

absolutely. I dont often post but i have had 40 years of looking at synoptics and just enjoy lurking at what others come up tih. I tend to use some of my previous experience of charts when i comment.

Great to see the snow( for some) this week although its been hard work. We really need better synoptics to produce the goods, but we are heading to historically the best time for it. I just have the feeling it will be our turn this year. I will keep looking for those Greenland heights building and not so much to Scandinavia yet. Although i do agree it will have  to link up to the Scandinavian/ Siberian high to produce a sustained bitter cold spell.

 

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

that is a great set up for a long cold spell. Can we get there, long way to go

This chart I think mirrors GP prediction almost to the day. 

Here's hoping for some firming up over the next couple of days

 

[swilliam]

6 hours ago, IDO said:

 

 

 

6 hours ago, IDO said:

 

Sorry keeps loading up old replies and I do not know how to get rid of them - plenty of bugs in the new system - wonder when these will be addressed.

JMA shows the absolute best of what could be developed from this pattern

 

Nirvana from there.

 

In reply to Yarmy JH is absolutely right - going back to zonal is always a bad thing. If the overall pattern is in general amplified then anything can happen (as we are seeing). If it goes back to zonal then something special has to happen and this is often difficult requiring something like Fred or whatever the depression was called that instigated the large scale WAA at the end of Dec. Ever since then we have had interesting models to look at. I have never understood people saying a reset back to zonal is needed or would be good.

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by swilliam

[Derbyshire Snow]

9 minutes ago, swilliam said:

 

 

Sorry keeps loading up old replies and I do not know how to get rid of them - plenty of bugs in the new system - wonder when these will be addressed.

JMA shows the absolute best of what could be developed from this pattern

 

Nirvana from there.

 

In reply to Yarmy JH is absolutely right - going back to zonal is always a bad thing. If the overall pattern is in general amplified then anything can happen (as we are seeing). If it goes back to zonal then something special has to happen and this is often difficult requiring something like Fred or whatever the depression was called that instigated the large scale WAA at the end of Dec. Ever since then we have had interesting models to look at. I have never understood people saying a reset back to zonal.

 

What i was trying to convey. we need heights to build over Greenland and push the jet stream further south, sending depressions tracking further south. Hopefully the Greenland high would link up to a then building Scandi high and we would gradually get to be on the north side of the jet stream, giving us lots of snow prospects on east and north easterlies.. Heights to the north , lows to our south, and if one of those lows could track in to Europe . Decades ago this often occurred.

 

This stubborn European high is one of the obstacles, and thats what i mean by a reset.

But its my thought on the way forward. 

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[booferking]

A few of these are starting to appear in the GEFS.

Edited January 17, 2016 by booferking

[Derbyshire Snow]

this chart is what i mean... superb!!