Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[wishingforsnow]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surface cold creeping closer

[Derbyshire Snow]

Well... better heights over Greenland mid term for awhile pushing the huge depression more southerly and weakening as well, The Scandinavian high needs help to encourage it to link to the Greenland high.

 

If we can get the heights to develop more over Green land and lower over Southern Europe, we might be in business. That isnt an arctic high appearing later in the run, or is it

[london and south east kent]

hi all very cold out tonight in London  the bbc weather are saying milder in the west of uk at end of week but staying cold in the south east of England and has for next week colder air will win out with a easterly so they must be seeing something are we missing something on here

Edited January 18, 2016 by london and south east kent

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Well... better heights over Greenland mid term for awhile pushing the huge depression more southerly and weakening as well, The Scandinavian high needs help to encourage it to link to the Greenland high.

 

If we can get the heights to develop more over Green land and lower over Southern Europe, we might be in business. That isnt an arctic high appearing later in the run, or is it

Hmmm interesting model developments, very interesting....

[Derbyshire Snow]

building blocks on this run for something special.. although once again heights dissipate over Greenland under the attack of the jet stream. Net result. Scandinavian high on retreat... and a bartlett developing

 

Its a good job its FI and only one run because the last charts are about as bad as you can get for early February... lok at the jet stream  firing up

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[booferking]

The Azores high ruins what would have been a epic easterly the lows get pushed up instead of under.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Could you put some kind of narrative as well please? 

[wishingforsnow]

Ok so the main hurdle seems to be the Azores High, hopefully further runs will downgrade that particular feature, then its game on for cold but promising output nonetheless  Still a lot of water under the bridge to go but the possible presence or eradication of that Azores High will make a huge difference to whether we end up with mild and dry or cold and dry...

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[TomDav]

18Z GFS carries the theme of a major warming in the strat start of Feb

 

[bryan629]

Quite a long way off just yet but this is very impressive surely the PV is going down from this chart 

[tight isobar]

Interesting. 

Tomas shaffernaka' certainty flagging up the possibility of a direct (beasterly)..easterly inflow. .around mid 'next week'!!!

@9:55 weekly forecast. ...

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Interesting. 

Tomas shaffernaka' certainty flagging up the possibility of a direct (beasterly)..easterly inflow. .around mid 'next week'!!!

@9:55 weekly forecast. ...

One to watch definitely

[ukpaul]

10 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Quite a long way off just yet but this is very impressive surely the PV is going down from this chart 

Seems to be converging on Feb 1st-2nd as the date so it should be coming into ECM territory by the weekend. Personally would love to see it continue for a while after that, as per 2013. With this beast you can never be too sure it's beaten.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Interesting. 

Tomas shaffernaka' certainty flagging up the possibility of a direct (beasterly)..easterly inflow. .around mid 'next week'!!!

@9:55 weekly forecast. ...

Oh yes!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Oh yes!

Did he really go into next weeks forecast?? He really loves the cold bet he is on this forum right now trolling us.

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Did he really go into next weeks forecast?? He really loves the cold bet he is on this forum right now trolling us.

Just for.......http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35348988

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Oh yes!

Flip me, that's a brave call by the Met office. Not interested in the ECM run then?

Expect a big turnaround in that models ops tomorrow .

[wishingforsnow]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Oh yes!

Hopefully that comes off and delivers something promising! 

[Dancerwithwings]

Long way off yet!..... but yes!  you never know http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35348988

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Flip me, that's a brave call by the Met office. Not interested in the ECM run then?

Expect a big turnaround in that models ops tomorrow .

Who knows? Maybe the high res/advanced models used by the Met and Beeb are showing something more promising that we don't know yet 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just for clarity he said cold MAY infiltrate back into eastern areas, he did not mention a direct easterly. Anyhow, when you've got WAA perpetually pumping into latitudes further N than us, there's always the risk that a blocking feature may suddenly pop up. Especially when that feature may be a Scandi high....elusive beasts they are! 

Edited January 18, 2016 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Yep a long way off in meteorological terms...

But we have seen hints tonight via public output. ....!!!!!

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Long way off yet!..... but yes!  you never know http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35348988

Thanks yea he goes into quite some detail on that forecast.

[Snowman.]

Quite a few cold members in there.

These don't even tell the whole story there is plenty of runs that attempt an easterly just the block is too far south.

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Interesting. 

Tomas shaffernaka' certainty flagging up the possibility of a direct (beasterly)..easterly inflow. .around mid 'next week'!!!

@9:55 weekly forecast. ...

To be fair he implied the cold would encroach back westward, he didn't imply a direct Easterly or bitterly cold temperatures, probably dry cold raw air.

Edited January 18, 2016 by feb1991blizzard