Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Show me a chart without strong heights in the reliable time frame to the south over Europe then the faith will begin - been the problem for a good 6/7th's of the winter so far and what went before.

We need that initial push if WAA toward Scandinavia it after that ridge is built we want to see lower height over Europe develop and if you compare the 12z 168 chart with the 06z you will see heights are lower in this crucial time-frame which gives potential for undercutting.

Again we can have heights build again after that as it will then reinforce the block and we want low pressure to form further East to get a nice Easterly flow.

 move West.

[Rocheydub]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

We need that initial push if WAA toward Scandinavia it after that ridge is built we want to see lower height over Europe develop and if you compare the 12z 168 chart with the 06z you will see heights are lower in this crucial time-frame which gives potential for undercutting.

Again we can have heights build again after that as it will then reinforce the block and we want low pressure to form further East to get a nice Easterly flow.

 move West.

You must admit though, as that chart is, it's not going to undercut! If it did, and dragged the whole pattern west by 500 miles or so, then yes, we could be in the game, but very unlikely looking at that chart!

[northwestsnow]

You can just hear the blocking to the NE shouting, c'mon, i want to give those long suffering coldies in the UK some cheer', and the uber vortex and all its associated energy shouting back, 'don't think so'.

Just look at the sheer size of that PV sat over Greenland - depressingly familiar.

Torpedo? I think we need a h-bomb!!!

Edited January 19, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

You must admit though, as that chart is, it's not going to undercut! If it did, and dragged the whole pattern west by 500 miles or so, then yes, we could be in the game, but very unlikely looking at that chart!

I admit we don't get the necessary undercut this run but we do get some undercut at around 192 and we are in a pretty good position at that point but in FI all the energy heads NE.

There is no reason to consider GFS has FI right in this regard and more undercut around day 9 and we would be in business. Sure better to see it actually modeled than not though.

We are just looking for improvements in the overall pattern at the moment and you must admit 12z is a big improvement up to FI than 00z or 06z 

Let's just hope the improvements are continued in the output out to 192 for now.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Mucka

[warrenb]

The problem is,the UKMO and the GEM both go with a December repeat. Look nothing like the GFS.

[tight isobar]

Well its the iberian heights for me scuppering things! .. its a case of she's going she's going. ..oh no shes not ...

Id like to ring the neck of that thing...However still potential and things are perhaps knife edge for the craved beast.

@easterly incursion. 

[bobbydog]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You can just hear the blocking to the NE shouting, c'mon, i want to give those long suffering coldies in the UK some cheer', and the uber vortex and all its associated energy shouting back, 'don't think so'.

Just look at the sheer size of that PV sat over Greenland - depressingly familiar.

Torpedo? I think we need a h-bomb!!!

too many people worrying about the size of the vortex over greenland/canada or 'euro-slug' highs. they are not the deciding factors or even a hindrance.

GFS 240hrs

Jan 17th 1947

Jan 31st 1991

the strat might be the deciding factor this year and things are not looking too bad up there at the moment...

[warrenb]

Ah the Strat or as I call it, the WIO index of 2016.

[mb018538]

Feeling slightly less optimistic after seeing tonights output. It may not what seemed like forever in December, but the mid term outlook looks very similar with mild air and the NW/SE split setting in again.

[offerman]

 Charts looking mild all the way right now into Fi

[Ali1977]

Quite a few ens building the high over Scandy, not quite influencing the UK. I also note some are showing a high building over in the mid the high Atlantic , all we need is a bit of WAA within that high and the potential is there for both to link. The flat pattern showing in the Op with the high sitting over Scandy won't take much to make things much better for us. SSW would assist with this.

[nick sussex]

Nice try from the GFS 12hrs run but still too much energy being thrown off the PV over Greenland.

The UKMO is an improvement on the 00hrs run. I'm not sure whats worst the deep cold teasing by getting very close and being thwarted or no hope at all!

We'll see what the ECM has to say but after some very underwhelming 00hrs outputs my optimism has rocketed from 1/10 to 4/10.

[SLEETY]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Nice try from the GFS 12hrs run but still too much energy being thrown off the PV over Greenland.

The UKMO is an improvement on the 00hrs run. I'm not sure whats worst the deep cold teasing by getting very close and being thwarted or no hope at all!

We'll see what the ECM has to say but after some very underwhelming 00hrs outputs my optimism has rocketed from 1/10 to 4/10.

ouch a slight upward trend in your mood,the gfs is getting close to a decent cold outlook again,it wasnt far off,hoping for more improvements in the next few runs,so your optimism can go to 10  

[Singularity]

Send WAA to Scandinavia and then have a shortwave break away from the polar jet and things can get a bit funky as GFS drops a hint of this evening.

With HLB off the menu for 10 days or so, achieving an easterly is, however, going to be a long shot. Really we are waiting for the train of Atlantic lows to slow down again to see if we can achieve anything with a mid-latitude ridge. GP has identified 23rd-28th Jan as the window for the GWO heading back to phase 5, at which point we "should expect some more amplification to be levered into the upstream flow" (quoting from Friday's post by GP).

Impacts are then seen at "back end of January or realistically early Feb" which happens to coincide with the expected onset of a SSW or at least stratospheric displacement.

GFS/GEFS continue to be blind to this expected GWO behaviour, insisting still on a move to 8/1. I believe that's where all the flatness and westerly momentum is coming from in recent GFS longer-range output. There's reasonable grounds to assume that it's completely wrong with that idea, with the credibility of output beyond a week's range highly questionable.

 

Speaking of which, The 12z GFS det. +240 to +384 differs from previous runs at 10 hPa in that it has a shorter duration warming with quicker impacts.

That shows the beginnings of a split, which I've not seen from this model's det. runs for late Jan/early Feb until now. Compared to a displacement it can achieve longer lasting results... but it's a sudden change from recent consistency so to be taken with enough salt to preserve a mammoth.

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by Singularity
Missed out a section!

[nick sussex]

Just now, SLEETY said:

ouch a slight upward trend in your mood,the gfs is getting close to a decent cold outlook again,it wasnt far off,hoping for more improvements in the next few runs,so your optimism can go to 10

Yes my mood wasn't great this morning! My optimism only reaches 10 when the easterly is within T24hrs! lol

The actual mean zonal winds are expected to fall significantly  next week, that was off last nights ECM . We'll have to see whether that can effect the outputs by giving any block some help to get west.

Hopefully tonights ECM won't have my optimism falling again!

[wishingforsnow]

I'm just hoping the eventual outcome of this saga is a decent cold February/possibly March. Hopefully today is just another 'bad day' for model watching and today's output doesn't become a recurring trend that verifies for February.

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Ali1977]

The Strat definitely looks like warming quicker than previous runs as per Singularitys post - you would expect some very different FIs coming up over the next day or so whilst they try work out what's happening - once this happens - by the weekend maybe we should have a good idea on where early Feb is heading. I for one think the PV will be slowly obliterated between now and end of Jan, where this happens and how it effects us is another question. Glosea / Mogreps should get a grip of this first, although I'd imagine reaction to SSW or even good SW isn't particularly easy to model during; or beyond these phases. 

The Ens are probably on this occasion not a bad model/tool to look at - we're already seeing a few stragglers go cold, we need to see that number increase over the next few days.

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a few ens building the high over Scandy, not quite influencing the UK. 

You've just described a typical Winter for N Europe (incl UK) and Scandi. It's the 'default' in probably 9 Winters out of 10. Known to a gambling man as a "safe bet".

[Singularity]

Worth having a gander at this - that's the next big MJO orbit captured by the ECM monthly (left chart), this being another part of the jigsaw for high AAM and GWO 7/6/5/6 orbit. For some reason the det. doesn't manage to get out of the COD even by day 10 but the ensembles out to that range (right chart) are keen enough.

Meanwhile GEFS continue to have a rather strange take on things:

- which I sense is linked to it's GWO behaviour as I remember seeing in December the same pairing of such an MJO outlook and the GWO projected (very wrongly as it turned out) to head into phase 8 then 1.

If we could get GEFS in line with ECM(F) then we'd probably find ourselves having a lot of fun discussing the output beyond 10 days range.

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

You've just described a typical Winter for N Europe (incl UK) and Scandi. It's the 'default' in probably 9 Winters out of 10. Known to a gambling man as a "safe bet".

Eastern Europe about to go brutally cold over the next few weeks, Atleast the cold is near by, correct set up and we'd tap into that in 48 hours....This could take ages in a Dec cold spell. 

Lets see what happens, can't be worse than Dec.

[SLEETY]

cant believe we are heading back to the Dec pattern again with another eurotrash high on the ECM

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

cant believe we are heading back to the Dec pattern again with another eurotrash high on the ECM

Not sure we have really, not at 144 anyway - jet is meandering, just needs a nudge south now!!

[wishingforsnow]

Well hopefully the only way is up and not down for the models in the next 10 days. I can't believe how things were so different only yesterday model wisd that I don't believe the prospect of further cold in winter has been obliterated completely just from today's output alone in models and forecasts when there is further evidence to suggest otherwise. 

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Not to be take litterely of course , but ECM at t144 isn't that awful , once we analyse the bigger picture , we have WWA straight into the artic , and big giant Scandinavian ridge which will not move anywhere quickly .

the problem we have is a positive tilt on the ridge with the low pressure in the Atlantic not having a cat in hells chance of undercutting , 'for now'

we need to see pressure drop in Europe , and a vertical tilt on the high , and yes Nick Sussex can explain what we need to see upstream , a deeper dig with troughing etc . . . But I believe we are not far away from an ideal set up there . 

Nick over to you !

[gottolovethisweather]

19 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Not to be take litterely of course , but ECM at t144 isn't that awful , once we analyse the bigger picture , we have WWA straight into the artic , and big giant Scandinavian ridge which will not move anywhere quickly .

the problem we have is a positive tilt on the ridge with the low pressure in the Atlantic not having a cat in hells chance of undercutting , 'for now'

we need to see pressure drop in Europe , and a vertical tilt on the high , and yes Nick Sussex can explain what we need to see upstream , a deeper dig with troughing etc . . . But I believe we are not far away from an ideal set up there . 

Nick over to you !

Yeah that surface feature coming out of the Americas on tonight's ECM t+96 - 23rd January chart (cue Nick Sussex paintjob) is riding along the Northern arm of the Jet appears to move the Azores High towards us over South and Western parts of Europe. Will have to see how this is modelled over subsequent runs as yesterday the BBC 10-dayer suggested the Scandi/Northern Europe Block might yet hold firm into next week and make a comeback. Time will tell.

 

All in all, I am but talking of one operational run in isolation here and am not necessarily looking at the bigger NH picture here which is of course, a dangerous thing to do. No more from me on the ECM having looked at the rest of the run now.

Edited January 19, 2016 by gottolovethisweather