Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[chris55]

Reading through the thread from today kind of reminds me of the week we have just had regarding the cold spell, and when it will end. The models in the run up to this spell and how long it would last were all over the place as a whole.

I get the feeling any long range prediction at this stage is not to be taken with to much certainty.

Solid signals of either cold or mild are lacking and with such output, and differing views, plus throwing in a potential SSW leads me to think I'll just sit back and see what unfolds.

[Rocheydub]

It's time to take a break from the models, this last cold 'spell' produced very little for me, despite promising so much in the run up!  3 frosts and a 15 minute sleet shower! The NWP showed it to be much more potent, and the current output really doesn't offer me any hope. Even GPs torpedo seems to have fallen short! Maybe in late Feb with a SSW? I'm worn out though! 

 

I'd advise any of the rest of you with model fatigue to do the same, I do it every winter at least twice, and often return refreshed ready to chase another winter holy grail on the NWP.

 

See you in a couple of days!

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Not to be take litterely of course , but ECM at t144 isn't that awful , once we analyse the bigger picture , we have WWA straight into the artic , and big giant Scandinavian ridge which will not move anywhere quickly .

the problem we have is a positive tilt on the ridge with the low pressure in the Atlantic not having a cat in hells chance of undercutting , 'for now'

we need to see pressure drop in Europe , and a vertical tilt on the high , and yes Nick Sussex can explain what we need to see upstream , a deeper dig with troughing etc . . . But I believe we are not far away from an ideal set up there .

Nick over to you !

Sorry I just passed out! lol Horrible consistency from the ECM when you don't want it to churn out the same synoptic crxp!

You explained it fine but I don't think its happening, however at T144hrs you can see the ECM struggle to get east hence the development of the shortwave near Scotland however the PV re-loads and fires east.

Thereafter its a carbon copy of this mornings horror show, the upstream pattern over the USA couldn't be flatter.

Lets hope the ECM loses its consistency because I'm not sure I could cope with another operational run such as this without reaching for the brandy bottle!

My new optimism rating after the ECM has sadly slumped down to 2/10!

[wishingforsnow]

12 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Reading through the thread from today kind of reminds me of the week we have just had regarding the cold spell, and when it will end. The models in the run up to this spell and how long it would last were all over the place as a whole.

I get the feeling any long range prediction at this stage is not to be taken with to much certainty.

Solid signals of either cold or mild are lacking and with such output, and differing views, plus throwing in a potential SSW leads me to think I'll just sit back and see what unfolds.

Agree with this. Too much uncertainty over a cold or mild possible outcome as forecast and model output is swinging from brilliant one day and awful the next and when the effects of a SSW would be felt or if it will even happen. So February's weather remains a big fat question mark right now until there is solid certainty not in FI that supports a particular outcome.

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Banbury]

39 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

cant believe we are heading back to the Dec pattern again with another eurotrash high on the ECM

We're not ??

Not from what I can see

[nick sussex]

In a desperate attempt to maintain some interest in that wretched ECM run. I'd look out for the ECM ensembles and spreads from T144 to 168hrs, just to see if theres any solutions taking that shortwave se rather than ene.

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by nick sussex

[Redwood]

9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

It's time to take a break from the models, this last cold 'spell' produced very little for me, despite promising so much in the run up!  3 frosts and a 15 minute sleet shower! The NWP showed it to be much more potent, and the current output really doesn't offer me any hope. Even GPs torpedo seems to have fallen short! Maybe in late Feb with a SSW? I'm worn out though! 

 

I'd advise any of the rest of you with model fatigue to do the same, I do it every winter at least twice, and often return refreshed ready to chase another winter holy grail on the NWP.

 

See you in a couple of days!

Yes a break is needed me thinks.  I will come back on in a few days when I hope to see terms such as euro slug gone, atlantic blocked, scandi high building, PV smashed and sustained cold likely with plenty of PPN

[shotski]

Let me know if I'm reading this chart wrong but this looks very promising come Feb ?

Edit its 2015 

Edited January 19, 2016 by shotski

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, shotski said:

Let me know if I'm reading this chart wrong but this looks very promising come Feb ?

Edit its 2015 

Lol! Regardless of the wrong year that CFS still didn't verify. Different year same old story with the CFS. Another complete waste of money. NCEP would be better giving that money to charity rather than continuing with that model which is useless.

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Regardless of the wrong year that CFS still didn't verify. Different year same old story with the CFS. Another complete waste of money. NCEP would be better giving that money to charity rather than continuing with that model which is useless.

Probably a bit harsh on the CFS given that is a JMA anomaly chart

Also it did verify when you look at the actual verified pattern for the 7th February.

Atlantic ridge pushing through the UK into northern Europe, low heights stretching through southern Europe towards the Azores. Pretty much shown by the anomaly chart in that post.

Anyway this is off topic.... so for tonights output. This is probably the best the ECM gets to.

An attempt to build a high towards Svalbard which would in effect push the jetstream straight north towards the north pole, this would halt the eastward progression of low pressure and allow a block to form to our north east, the ECM doesn't make it this time but at least it is sniffing at this possibility. Quite a few GEFs members go for this albeit the cold weather never really gets to the UK, also there are a lot of members with strong positive heights over France and the south of the UK. This ridge seems to be the only interest apart from the events going on above the troposphere.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! First of all ,although models at the moment look cheerless for cold lovers ,ask yourself a few questions....

1/ Have the models been great regarding the reliability of there outputs lately......Answer= No.

2/ Have the models been accurate even in the reliable timeframe.......Answer= No.

3/ Do you have confidence on the modelling for next week......Answer=No.

4/Would you like to put some money on verification on what the models are showing at T+120.....Answer = No.

Ive put two charts up from both Ecm and Gfs at the T+120 period. Look at them and SAVE! See the difference in a couple of days. Pointless , bashing your head against the proverbial brick wall! Interesting times ahead... Im  going to save these two charts and look back later in the week...

[nick sussex]

CS, LMAO! Oh well that's my oops moment! However my comments re the CFS stand. Anyway not long till the ECM ensembles, hopefully they're better than the operational run.

[stewfox]

19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! First of all ,although models at the moment look cheerless for cold lovers ,ask yourself a few questions....

 

Still learning what's so good about that ****  ***chart ?

[ANYWEATHER]

6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Still learning what's so good about that ****  ***chart ?

Hi ,nothing for cold lovers , just posted it up and save and see how the model output looks like in a couple of days given the recent model output...

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Still learning what's so good about that ****  ***chart ?

Warm air going into the Arctic, attacking the PV. And with that warm air normally helps to develop some positive heights to its east/ne.

Unfortunately the PV still isn't in the mood to leave centre stage.

Edited January 19, 2016 by nick sussex

[Dancerwithwings]

25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! First of all ,although models at the moment look cheerless for cold lovers ,ask yourself a few questions....

1/ Have the models been great regarding the reliability of there outputs lately......Answer= No.

2/ Have the models been accurate even in the reliable timeframe.......Answer= No.

3/ Do you have confidence on the modelling for next week......Answer=No.

4/Would you like to put some money on verification on what the models are showing at T+120.....Answer = No.

Ive put two charts up from both Ecm and Gfs at the T+120 period. Look at them and SAVE! See the difference in a couple of days. Pointless , bashing your head against the proverbial brick wall! Interesting times ahead... Im  going to save these two charts and look back later in the week...

 Next week.....Well look where we were suppose to be 7 days ago....big differences! so again who knows

Todays Chart

7 days ago for today

[Methuselah]

I'm no' much of a fan of the CFS Model, either...But, along with all the other models, the CFS is an ongoing experiment, and, tweak them here, tweak them there - in the not too distant future, computer models will reveal all, and make our collective musings redundant???

[Ali1977]

Are the ECM ENS out yet?

[joggs]

Well I'm giving it a few days off now and come back and see if the models have picked up on some of the promising background signals that have been touted.

I will say if you are disheartened atm,just think how quick this cold spell we are currently in evolved.So anything is possible.

[Singularity]

In a bit to summarise in one image the possible direction of travel ending the month and into the first week of Feb using the ECM 12z det. +240 chart as a start point:

 

I can see the tropical forcing exciting an amplified planetary wave (or waves), the amplification signal then propagating east to produce a standard pull to the northwest of HP from the UK/Europe as the trough drops in to replace it.

Simultaneously or soon after, the SSW event - presuming it occurs - gives rise to the possibility of height rises to our NE, perhaps in the form of the blocking over Siberia extending west.

 

Please take note that this is not necessarily what I see that particular ECM run producing over the following days (though it is possible - see below), rather the general direction of travel I'm looking out for in the model output for 25th Jan through to around 7th Feb.

Where ECM does make some sense to me in this regard is the way that ridging starts to show its hand in the mid-Atlantic from day 5, with the SW-NE jet alignment becoming less frequent again (having only established a few days beforehand). This is needed if we are to vacate high heights from Europe within that period 25th Jan to 7th Feb. That would have already started to take place by the end of the ECM run had the polar jet not been so strong. Again we look to the AO and it's positive trend until around the end of the month - this is the main hindrance to getting the next cold spell in motion before Feb. This trend is connected to the expected SSW event and as such it should cease by the time of the SSW onset. 

A big question rolling around my head is whether the models are overdoing the positive AO trend ahead of the SSW or not. On this, all I know of so far is ECM having a positive AO bias which may be important with respect to it's handling of the coming 10 days. GFS seems to be less prone to that based on how it handled recent weeks, but I have a feeling this is offset somewhat by the progressive bias with mid-latitude troughs.

[Weather Observer]

46 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hi ,nothing for cold lovers , just posted it up and save and see how the model output looks like in a couple of days given the recent model output...

Anyweather's charts show us in the middle lane of a  crowded 10 lane highway heading north. I was hoping he was going to show us the way to the exit. At least journey's end, the Arctic, will be cold.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Weathervane

[ANYWEATHER]

2 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

Anyweather's charts show us in the middle lane of a  crowded 10 lane highway heading north. I was hoping he was going to show us the way to the exit. At least journey's end, the Arctic, will be cold.

The Exit will be In the next few days,,,,,,,,

[ukpaul]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are the ECM ENS out yet?

 

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by ukpaul

[Richard Taylor]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Take it easy, don't let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy.................. seems apt today.....

Looks like people are checking out any time they like... to take a break from the model thread

TBH I don't blame them, it's the models driving people crazy!

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

 

 

There goes any cold in January then. Pretty rock solid for no Easterly there. 

We really are back to looking at the further reaches of the models for proper cold.

Come on GP, give us some hope.