Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Blake]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Please folks, can we keep on-topic...This isn't the Tomasz Shaffernacker interpretation thread.

But he could be a model...

Anyway... this has put me off my breakfast http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011900/gfsnh-0-300.png?0?0

That could be difficult to budge if it verifies.

[fergieweather]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm not talking about the normal tv forecasts Ian. More the Week Ahead one and the other day it clearly used the UKMO outputs from the 00hrs because its synoptics were nothing like the UKMO fax charts done that night and could not have evolded to what was shown for this coming Friday.

Ah, right - yes, depends when recorded. Takes a while for model update to feed into graphics system. Anyway, back to models.

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Sorry.bit of a Newby. Can anyone tell me what WAA is please? 

[mickpips]

4 minutes ago, Orpingtoniceagedec10 said:

Sorry.bit of a Newby. Can anyone tell me what WAA is please? 

If you hover over WAA it tells you what the abbreviation means , - warm air advection up towards Greenland and the Arctic in this instance

[terrier]

Well ecm is flat as a pancake this morning something it seems to have picked up on last few runs. Although the gfs shows some strat warming think too much onus is been put on this bringing us colder weather it is by know means a guarantee to bring cold to our shores. We could quite easy end up in milder air also from a ssw event. 

[Harsh Climate]

If were to look for any positives the only one I can find is the models keep a core of deep cold over eastern europe and are reluctant to get rid of it, no big swath of west to east zonality sweeping right across the atlantic through russia. This is quite unusual and may be a pre-curser to something big brewing around the corner! 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Atleast if we do get a continental feed in the coming weeks, deep cold may not be too hard to tap into.

 

[booferking]

A bad trend setting in now flat as a pancake if the Azores High & Euro slug set in that won,t shift and we are done.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SMU]

I will try & add some thing later today ( as I said I would to GP / Tamara )

However as we exit this current cold - again a little underwhelmed with what its actually delivered ( across the piste ) we have 6 weeks left of winter left- with the next 4 being the core availability for the main part of england ( post that a higher sun = less potential overall )

I feel that in the next 10 / maybe 15 days we reach a juncture that will consign the rest of the winter- that being that if nothing has significantly happened on the back of the forecast AO returning to neutral then it will be game over-

The much vaunted stratospheric warming is now in view on the models however the propergation time is around 4 weeks - so we are then pushing towards the middle of Feb...

anyway ... Nothing exciting in the models at the moment ( other than the outside chance of an easterly ) & if you look at the GEM at 240 - its the most positive AO you can get.....

more later

S

Edited January 19, 2016 by Steve Murr

[wishingforsnow]

I hope this morning's sudden swing in output is just a result of the models confused by the possible impact of strat warming/SSW now that seems to be gaining momentum - as mentioned in the Strat thread its effects could go 2 ways: extremely cold or mild. Hopefully it ends up being cold, because although the second option would cause dry and mild weather for now I fear that as a result we would be seeing another spring/summer like 2012.

I suppose the one advantage from this upcoming mild period as shown in this morning's models (which are for late Jan and the whole of February is still FI) is that should the SSW occur during this period of hopefully brief mild weather, its apparently more likely then to bring the switch to cold. The idea it could cause cooling in this particular instance also seems to have support from Dr Cohen, echoed by GP and Tamara and hopefully its accurate. As Steve Murr said, the next 10-15 days are crucial in determining the weather pattern for the rest of winter.

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Ali1977]

It's understood that SSW events can influence the mid latitudes weather, however does the location of the warmth ( Siberia looking at it) have any influence on where the main changes can happen??

 

[Hotspur62]

Well as we approach the end of this current coldish spell(last of cold air likely to leave east coast Thurs night/Fri morning) it looks like we will have a good week of average to slightly above temps before the chance of another cold spell developing. I have read with great interest Dr Cohens blogs this winter and am still optimistic as others have said that we maybe entering the coldest part of the winter.  The one big concern I have  heights are too High across the Med and in past cold spells we more often than not have Low heights(i.e Genoa Low etc).I hope that this starts to transpire over the next 10-14 days and I appreciate it is not" the be all and end all" but it will certainly help. In he meantime the dreaded P word is order of the day.

At least it has been a much more interesting Model watching period this month compared to December and have found the last 2 weeks really interesting as Models have really struggled to find consistency in future trends,something I have not seen since I joined this great forum 5 years ago. Lets hope coldies have something substantial to cheer about as we depart January and enter February.

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I hope this morning's sudden swing in output is just a result of the models confused by the possible impact of strat warming/SSW now that seems to be gaining momentum - as mentioned in the Strat thread its effects could go 2 ways: extremely cold or mild. Hopefully it ends up being cold, because although the second option would cause dry and mild weather for now I fear that as a result we would be seeing another spring/summer like 2012.

I suppose the one advantage from this upcoming mild period as shown in this morning's models (which are for late Jan and the whole of February is still FI) is that should the SSW occur during this period of hopefully brief mild weather, its apparently more likely then to bring the switch to cold. The idea it could cause cooling in this particular instance also seems to have support from Dr Cohen, echoed by GP and Tamara and hopefully its accurate. As Steve Murr said, the next 10-15 days are crucial in determining the weather pattern for the rest of winter.

Yes, but re potential for SSW (ie one in defined sense), it can't be ignored that as it stands, GloSea5 (with strat diagnostics run daily) still shows little interest in this amongst its latest ensembles, until a fair way out into Feb at the earliest.

[Ali1977]

Still a fair few ens showing Easterlies by next wed...Not done yet as per that BBC forecast last night.

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Still a fair few ens showing Easterlies by next wed...Not done yet as per that BBC forecast last night.

True but as per IF doesn't look the likely option atm  . Lets hope there is big momentum swing in the next few days   

 

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[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes, but re potential for SSW (ie one in defined sense), it can't be ignored that as it stands, GloSea5 (with strat diagnostics run daily) still shows little interest in this amongst its latest ensembles, until a fair way out into Feb at the earliest.

I guess the best hope now is some sort of displacement of that horrid PV as we move through Feb Ian.

An ssw in mid to late Feb is pretty much the last thing i for one want to see as im personally not one for march/April cold.

In some respects this winter has been very similar to last years effort with a strong PV in place over Greenland from Nov onwards.

Far to early to be writing obituaries but the ink pot is open..

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by northwestsnow

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

True but as per IF doesn't look the likely option atm  . Lets hope there is big momentum swing in the next few days   

 

.

Not yet, but hopefully given what is shown in models re strat warming & displacement of PV its a trend which starts to gain momentum in the next 2 weeks

 

[fergieweather]

2 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Not yet, but hopefully given what is shown in models re strat warming & displacement of PV its a trend which starts to gain momentum in the next 2 weeks

 

Yes, clearly nothing can be discounted out further ahead. 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I guess the best hope now is some sort of displacement of that horrid PV as we move through Feb Ian.

An ssw in mid to late Feb is pretty much the last thing i for one want to see as im personally not one for march/April cold.

In some respects this winter has been very similar to last years effort with a strong PV in place over Greenland from Nov onwards.

Far to early to be writing obituaries but the ink pot is open..

 

I would think that the further into February/March one goes, the more we want to see northerlies rather than easterlies which (unless exceptional) tend to be rather boring. A northerly to bring the snow followed by a northeasterly to hold the cold in would be favourable from mid-Feb onwards. Of course, for that there would need to be a movement of the PV from Greenland across to the east with heights then lowering over Europe, which sadly seems to be the polar (pardon the pun) opposite to what's being shown. Echoing what others have said, I hope the current blowtorch charts are out of uncertainty, but it is rather concerning how much consensus there is on the return of mild. One positive is that pressure is quite high over a large swathe of the UK meaning a much drier affair if it were to pan out as the models show.

[swilliam]

I think whilst the GEFS anomalies are still showing these kind of outputs in FI then there is always the chance for something interesting to develop although we could do with some lower heights in Europe.

 

264

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Strong anomalies at this range and certainly no raging vortex.

[Ali1977]

Out of all the Ens the Op is by far the worst with regards ridging and blocking to our NE/N/NW, let's hope things change early Feb whilst the sun is still low and relatively weak. The further we go into Feb the more extreme the weather has to be to bring a proper freeze in, and ice days.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Ali1977

[Mucka]

How does 

21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes, but re potential for SSW (ie one in defined sense), it can't be ignored that as it stands, GloSea5 (with strat diagnostics run daily) still shows little interest in this amongst its latest ensembles, until a fair way out into Feb at the earliest.

How does GloSea5 verify re stat compared to GFS and JMA Ian?

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, swilliam said:

I think whilst the GEFS anomalies are still showing these kind of outputs in FI then there is always the chance for something interesting to develop although we could do with some lower heights in Europe.

 

264

348

 

Strong anomalies at this range and certainly no raging vortex.

ECM day 10-15 anomalies couldn't be more different with a GIN trough signal!

[wishingforsnow]

Let's not forget that tightening of the PV temporarily resulting in reappearance of mild weather as shown on late January models is a common precursor to vortex displacement. And we are still out of the reliable timeframe for both a SSW trend appearing in high res models and for those blowtorch charts to be taken as 'gospel'

Too early to be writing any obituaries for this Winter and as Fergie suggests at this stage nothing can be ruled out. I believe at the moment the cold potential for February/March still exists but we are approaching a knife edge period where the long outcome could swing from cold to mild or vice versa. 

At least in any case it should be mostly dry.

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Purga]

Still showing the cold options in the 06z ENS from GFS after the upcoming mild push although the Op & Control side with the mild clusters until the end when both trend colder.

Not sure how much credence is put on this by METO but it is good to see it still being shown.

[fergieweather]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

How does 

How does GloSea5 verify re stat compared to GFS and JMA Ian?

It's a much more longer-range and sophisticated suite designed (in no small part) to particularly undertake stratospheric diagnostics and forecast SSW events.