Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Is it going under......?

A very knife edge run there

[Rocheydub]

It's a sinker folks. Look at it on meteociel and scroll, you'll see the low is going to ride over the top.

[andymusic]

51 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Thanks dude , going to zell em see it's a lowish resort but awesome apre skiing and good allrounder , can't wait it's my first time on the slopes , hope we get snow falling rather than sun every day but I'm sure it will be great regardless . 

Lets hope we see some developments especially with the updated NOAA charts that look good , if I was been picky I would rather see it migrate slightly north .

models looking good for keeping the atlantic at bay even come friday right now - been to zell am zee - mcdees in the town and it was -20 at the top - my beard froze over lol - plus you got the glacier not too far away - snow sure at virtually all times including the summer

Edited January 18, 2016 by andymusic

[winterof79]

Does anyone else get the feeling that sooner or later one of these runs is going to explode heights nearby,possibly scandy and then a transfer over the top of us.

[Ali1977]

I think the chatter will be ramping up on here ,SSW incoming me thinks!!! Let's hope those few cold runs on the different Ens become reality.

[Rocheydub]

Yep, it's a sinker sadly... This is 102

[Timmytour]

i think there's someone in the Atlantic beckoning to the Beast to come over...



 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Yep, it's a sinker sadly... This is 102

How is that a sinker?

better height's to the north of us than the 12z,watch that shortwave near the Canaries pump up secondry heights,looks good to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Does anyone else get the feeling that sooner or later one of these runs is going to explode heights nearby,possibly scandy and then a transfer over the top of us.

If teleconnections hold true, that's exactly the route we're looking at.

[bluearmy]

This mornings ecmp brought a cold easterly flow at the end of its run as the ridge got far enough North. I dont think Exeter have dismissed this solution. 

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

How is that a sinker?

better height's to the north of us than the 12z,watch that shortwave near the Canaries pump up secondry heights,looks good to me.

The original question was would the low go under the block. I said no, it would ride over the top. It pushes the high down, and I call that a sinker. There is minimal difference between this and the 12z so far.

[Snowman.]

Latest cohen

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

Quote

Week 3-4

Looking at the end of the week two period, little change is predicted in the negative AO state, as it continues to trend close to neutral(Figure 1), and in the large-scale atmospheric circulation (Figure 6).  The dominant hemispheric geopotential positive height anomaly center this period remains close to Northern Europe, though is predicted to retrograde further west towards Iceland (Figure 4b).  This will allow a more northerly flow of air across Western Europe and should allow some of the very cold air in Eastern Europe to spread further west into Western Europe (Figure 6). In fact with strong ridging in the Eastern North Atlantic predicted and northerly flow of air over Western Europe, will essentially block or prohibit the flow of mild maritime air across Northern Eurasia.  Instead, nearly the entire Eurasian continent is dominated by much colder continental air.  The GFS model predicts that almost all of Eurasia will experience below normal temperatures(Figure 6).  This would be an impressive and rare feat if it verifies, which does raise some uncertainty.  The one notable exception is Northern Europe, which is the one region predicted to be most greatly influenced by a westerly flow of mild air from the North Atlantic (Figure 4b) resulting in above normal temperatures (Figure 6).

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Gazza H]

ok so theres a link in the strat thread as well but thought I'd share here as well seeing as it will have an effect on the model outputs. Judah cone's latest update and I for one think its good news for coldies. Link to the full update ....... https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

The original question was would the low go under the block. I said no, it would ride over the top. It pushes the high down, and I call that a sinker. There is minimal difference between this and the 12z so far.

Yes i see your point about that shortwave riding over the top,but i was on about the heights,still similar,still not a sinker though as heights go up towards Swalvald just like the 12z,the more heights that get there the better

[Purga]

Well on the face of it it SEEEMS like the mild air will cover us later in the week.

Typical ECM mean for the weekend

HOWEVER an interesting update from METO (Tomasz Schafernaker) indicating that progress against the block could be anything but certain

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35348988

I like the bit about the door being open for a potential cold blast from the east next week!!

 

[damianslaw]

Theme from the models is to continue to suggest the atlantic isn't going to have its way easily over the week ahead, yes we will lose the cold conditions come Friday as it invades, but it is coming up against a strong block to our east and more importantly ridge development from the south, this latter development will force the atlantic longwave trough to stretch and hit a brick wall, allowing heights to build easily into southern England and most likely merge with those heights to our east, whilst frontal features graze the far NW of the country.

I can see a dry end to January and an increasingly cold continental feed of air being pumped across the country. If some of the long range forecasts and teleconnection signals for the northern hemisphere verify we could see a notably sustained cold attack as we enter February with the same heights edging ever westwards..

In the meantime, coldest weather of the season over the next couple of days.. how different things feel to early December!

[Rocheydub]

Out to 162. and as you'd expect, some larger scale changes starting to appear, as per normal at this range. Handling of the low pressure systems in the Atlantic differs here, and this effects how much/if any HP can ridge upwards. I doubt we'd get the cut off high we all crave from there though!

[winterof79]

That chart is very nice indeed methinks the ensembles are going to tank before long

Edited January 18, 2016 by winterof79

[booferking]

Better run this we want the 2 lows in Atlantic to stay together as this helps pump the high if they slit we lose the Iceland low and it moves over the top of the high.

 

We need another trigger low to get it the deep cold here come on we have be left short change so many times its are time make it happen.

Edited January 18, 2016 by booferking

[Allseasons-Si]

more neg tilted trough in the atlantic and that shortwave is a lot further west in Iceland

18z12z

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Latest cohen

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

 

With the major Nor'easter(s) expected in the eastern seaboard of america later this week and beyond I find it hard to believe that any major blocking would be likely in the area cohen suggest. 

 

 

[Purga]

Very close to developing an epic easterly, WAA right up the western coast of Norway and a large pool of intensely cold air out to the east.

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

With the major Nor'easter(s) expected in the eastern seaboard of america later this week and beyond I find it hard to believe that any major blocking would be likely in the area cohen suggest. 

 

 

This is week 3-4.

[winterof79]

Surface cold creeping closer

[Snowman.]

Pressure now building into Eastern Greenland.