Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Lukesluckybunch]

14 minutes ago, swilliam said:

avNo - those that have full access to other models (ECM, UKMO  etc.) use these (i.e. met office, BBC). The reason why GFS is used by many other websites is that it is freely available.

My point was,is that over on TWO the weather outlook website they have 16 day postcode forecast and the data they use to generate the 16 day is from each run of the gfs ☺

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Superb models!

Interestingly, I don't know if this means anything but my weather app shows on Wednesday day/night temperature slowly decreasing again (from 12 degrees and 9 at night on Saturday to 8 degrees during the day and 4 at night on Wednesday) following a brief spike in temperatures in low double figures and rainy days from the weekend to Tuesday. Wonder if that correlates to a drop in temperature after a mild blip as has been predicted by the models?

Hi! Take no notice of weather Apps .they are a waste of time ! Just look at the trend in the models...Apps are updated by Gfs I believe  and considering the models inconsistency take then with a pinch ,no a mountain of salt....

[Timmytour]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

My point was,is that over on TWO the weather outlook website they have 16 day postcode forecast and the data they use to generate the 16 day is from each run of the gfs ☺

What other model does a 16 day run?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

12 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

i personally prefer the gfs over the ecm. The only problem i have, it often seems in FI to want to try to strengthen energy in the atlantic, usually  more than other models. FI is however never to be trusted anyway.

Its natural that a lot of  cold lovers prefer the model that gives the most wanted  synoptics at the time.

The best model in our part of the world statistacly is the ECM , with the ukmo Doing more or less as well , the gfs in notorious for not handling blocking events . It's always had a bias toward Atlantic based weather , I suppose climatology backs up the westerly bias .  All models get it wrong , and in recent times the ECM has seemingly had a tendacncy to over amplify things , the ukmo has led the way in this cold spell , ok it did over amplify at times but it got the pattern right , when all the others went into an Atlantic frenzy , apart from the gem , which seems to give us the holly grail regularly ! 

Anyway it's interesting to see models catching onto the fact that actually we won't have weeks of wind and rain , but rather more calm settled weather , with high pressure building over and to our north of us .

im off the Austria on sat snow boarding and hopefully when I get back we will be staring down the barrel of record breaking cold and snow !!! I live in hope 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

What other model does a 16 day run?

I just wondering which websites use the ecm for supplying there weather I think most use the met office or gfs.

[Purga]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Forget the  vagaries of the op runs,  the big news for cold lovers is that todays noaa anomaly charts now keep the high very close to the uk,  they dont allow the mild southwesterlies to take hold and stick.  Theres a great opportunity on these for a scandinavian high and a very cold evolution.  Of course further runs are needed to consolidate this shift but imho those of you seeking cold would be justified in raising hopes.! 

 

Sorry,  cant post them,  im on my tablet. 

Here they are Mushy and they do look good for blocking in the right place

Need consistency over a few runs of course for a real trend but nice to see.

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hi! Take no notice of weather Apps .they are a waste of time ! Just look at the trend in the models...Apps are updated by Gfs I believe  and considering the models inconsistency take then with a pinch ,no a mountain of salt....

Yeah good point  the IPhone weather app is horrendous at times, flip flopping like a fish! I'll be definitely focusing on model trends 

[Timmytour]

I think the fact the GFS has so many runs and goes out so far probably doesn't help it stand up to too much scrutiny.  I think it's best used to assess what's underlying....ie if it is consistently inconsistent, then it might be because there are variable signals to be picked up that might make you more suspicious of a consistency in other models.   We often hear that a model is being consistent with an approach, but it doesn't mean it's right, and it may be that, although GFS is not handling the signals well, at least it is reflecting them.

SSIB....have a good time in Austria.....my brothers going out to Soll at the same time.  I was able to tell him a couple of weeks ago that things were due to very much pick up over there

Edited January 18, 2016 by Timmytour
typo

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I just wondering which websites use the ecm for supplying there weather I think most use the met office or gfs.

I would imagine that, if you are looking to provide a 16 day forecast and you have punters mug enough to take the far reaches of it at face value, it's easy to simply lift the GFS data. Why invest any more time than that into it?  (ECM not available for that length of time I believe)

[swilliam]

21 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

My point was,is that over on TWO the weather outlook website they have 16 day postcode forecast and the data they use to generate the 16 day is from each run of the gfs ☺

Because it is freely available

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I think the fact the GFS has so many runs and goes out so far probably doesn't help it stand up to too much scrutiny.  I think it's best used to assess what's underlying....ie if it is consistently inconsistent, then it might be because there are variable signals to be picked up that might make you more suspicious of a consistency in other models.   We often hear that a model is being consistent with an approach, but it doesn't mean it's right, and it may be that, although GFS is not handling the signals well, at least it is reflecting them.

SSIB....have a good time in Austria.....my brothers going out to Soll at the same time.  I was able to tell him a couple of weeks ago that things were due to very much pick up over there

Thanks dude , going to zell em see it's a lowish resort but awesome apre skiing and good allrounder , can't wait it's my first time on the slopes , hope we get snow falling rather than sun every day but I'm sure it will be great regardless . 

Lets hope we see some developments especially with the updated NOAA charts that look good , if I was been picky I would rather see it migrate slightly north .

Edited January 18, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[snowbob]

13 minutes ago, Purga said:

Here they are Mushy and they do look good for blocking in the right place

Need consistency over a few runs of course for a real trend but nice to see.

Great news

wasnt it the noaa that got the cold spell just gone closest to the mark

when every model run was flip flopping 

[geoffw]

what do the ecm ensembles show ?

[TSNWK]

Geoff... They have not be referenced this evening... So I suspect they might be supportive of the op.. Which was rather uninspiring for coldies..

 

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, geoffw said:

what do the ecm ensembles show ?

 

16 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Geoff... They have not be referenced this evening... So I suspect they might be supportive of the op.. Which was rather uninspiring for coldies..

 

Pretty much what TSNWK said generally a west to south westerly flow

‏

Still things might be totally different in the morning who knows...

Edited January 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Allseasons-Si]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

Here they are Mushy and they do look good for blocking in the right place

Need consistency over a few runs of course for a real trend but nice to see.

I thoght that i would rotate these just to see them from a better angle(from a uk perpective)

not to be taken as gospal,but they do look better than the previous 6-10,8-14 ones with the 6-10 one having a trough disruption Sw of the BI and the 8-14 one with better height's to the north,atlantic hitting a brick wall there

 

[Gazza H]

Just a quick FI February weather porn chart for us before the pub run comes out 

[TomDav]

38 minutes ago, Purga said:

Here they are Mushy and they do look good for blocking in the right place

Need consistency over a few runs of course for a real trend but nice to see.

Height anomalies can be deceptive tho, e.g. climatologically the polar vortex is situated over Greenland/North Pole so even shallow low pressure can be correspond to +ve hgt500 anomalies

[wishingforsnow]

35 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Thanks dude , going to zell em see it's a lowish resort but awesome apre skiing and good allrounder , can't wait it's my first time on th sloaps , hope we get snow falling rather than sun every day but I'm sure it will be great regardless . 

Lets hope we see some developments especially with the updated NOAA charts that look good , if I was been picky I would rather see it migrate slightly north .

The abundance of sunny cold days is already a step in the right direction but to get the snow in later on would be a very welcome bonus.

ECM ensembles start off terrible again but improve towards the end of the run (28th) with the high pressure block so still something hopeful to pick out from them 

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[winterof79]

[Timmytour]

It's not going to happen....but a slight push of the high pressure west across Iceland in the early stages of the pub run....would this encourage the energy to head south east like we want it to if it did develop in future runs?

[bryan629]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

It's not going to happen....but a slight push of the high pressure west across Iceland in the early stages of the pub run....would this encourage the energy to head south east like we want it to if it did develop in future runs?

I just may have mis-read Cohens blog tonight.. but im sure he mentioned something about energy heading south east towards the Med in the near future.. Also good news if your looking for an SSW too 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

A few very cold runs appearing there...just as in the GEFS. Hmmmm.

[Timmytour]

Is it going under......?



EDIT...nope....not this run anyhow

Edited January 18, 2016 by Timmytour

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A few very cold runs appearing there...just as in the GEFS. Hmmmm.

Yes CC has its similarities I think they're sniffing something