C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 24th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.5C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of -1.5C while maxima were around 5C, so a drop to 5.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.1C to the 26th (2.3: -2.6)
5.0C to the 27th (2.1: -3.2)
4.9C to the 28th (3.2: -2.0)
4.9C to the 29th (3.4: -1.0)

Little change, finishing value before corrections on the border between 4.8 and 4.9C.
 

Edited February 25, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 25th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.4C basically average for the time of year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of +1.4C while maxima look like being around 6C, so remaining on 5.2C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.1C to the 27th (2.2: -3.1)
5.0C to the 28th (3.4: -1.8)
5.0C to the 29th (4.0: -0.4)
 

The minimum today is much milder than originally forecast, as was yesterday's maximum, combined with the slightly milder final 4 days forecast overall, means it's now likely to be somewhere from 4.8C to 5.0C before corrections. This puts the 81-10 average of 4.4C right on the edge of possibilities after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Relativistic]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

So we are yet to sink below 1869?

Edited February 26, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet
Stupid wording.

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

So we are yet to sink below 1869?

Close, but no cigar Meto, the warmest will still be way back in the 19th century!

[Roger J Smith]

Note, the metoffice blurb is in reference to second wettest winter, meanwhile it seems almost locked in that 2015-16 will be second mildest winter behind 1868-69. Somebody tracking the wettest winter might want to post the identity of the wettest winter, I don't think that was also 1868-69.

[Gael_Force]

14 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Note, the metoffice blurb is in reference to second wettest winter, meanwhile it seems almost locked in that 2015-16 will be second mildest winter behind 1868-69. Somebody tracking the wettest winter might want to post the identity of the wettest winter, I don't think that was also 1868-69.

The wettest winter was just two years ago, if I'm remembering correctly.

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 26th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of +0.7C while maxima look like being around 6C, so a drop to 5.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.0C to the 28th (3.1: -2.1)
5.0C to the 29th (4.4: -0.1)

The minimum today is again much higher than forecast, meaning that 5.0C is the most likely value now before corrections, and reaching the 81-10 average is next to impossible.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 27th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎26‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 11:42 PM, Roger J Smith said:

Note, the metoffice blurb is in reference to second wettest winter, meanwhile it seems almost locked in that 2015-16 will be second mildest winter behind 1868-69. Somebody tracking the wettest winter might want to post the identity of the wettest winter, I don't think that was also 1868-69.

Matt Taylor BBC Weather now calling it warmest EVER CET  DJF , he mentions  records going back to 1659, so no confusion with the 1910 onwards stats then.

A bit premature?

And a bit wrong!

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Matt Taylor BBC Weather now calling it warmest EVER CET  DJF , he mentions  records going back to 1659, so no confusion with the 1910 onwards stats then.

A bit premature?

And a bit wrong!

What?! I was sure that 1869 was going to win out.

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

What?! I was sure that 1869 was going to win out.

Well, you have Matt from the BBC/METO on your side

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Well, you have Matt from the BBC/METO on your side

I thought it was going down to the wire and may hinge on the extra day. The video was recorded on the 27th so surely a bit premature for the CET figure.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35678575

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

I thought it was going down to the wire and may hinge on the extra day. The video was recorded on the 27th so surely a bit premature for the CET figure.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35678575

When it is very close, I don't know why it can't wait. It's not the first time that the Met Office jumped the gun with saying blah blah will be the xth this. I think it was 2004 or 2005 and they made an announcement by mid December that that year would the 4th warmest and I thought to myself what if a cold spell comes during the second half of December and knocks the December CET down?  That is what exactly happened and it ended down the list by a couple of notches from what the Met Office initially said. 

[Roger J Smith]

I was tracking the race with 1868-69 a few pages back, this is the same post as you'll find there except that I cut out the tracking before 25th ...

After this date _________ 1868-69 ________________ 2015-16

25 Feb ___________ (7.2, 5,6, 7.6) = 6.80 ___ (9.7, 5,4, 5.2) = 6.77

26 Feb ___________ (7.2, 5,6, 7.7) = 6.83 ___ (9.7, 5,4, 5.2) = 6.77

27 Feb ___________ (7.2, 5,6, 7.6) = 6.80 ___ (9.7, 5,4, 5.1) = 6.73

28 Feb ___________ (7.2, 5,6, 7.5) = 6.77 ___ (9.7, 5,4, est5.0) = 6.70

29 Feb ____________ done see above _____ (9.7, 5.4, est4.9) = 6.67

____________________________________________________________________________

28th _ In the above (edited) estimates, I have updated the posted values (which may be adjusted in the final figures) with expected pre and post adjustment values for 28th and after month ends (est 4.9 to 29th). There was very little change from actuals to earlier projections and the race now seems almost settled in favour of 1868-69 ... the way things are trending, current 2nd place 1833-34 (6.53) is still part of the discussion although fading, 4.5 is needed after adjustments for a tie.

Amazing how mild the first 16 days of Feb 1869 were. The 23rd and 24th of January in that winter were actually below zero then the mean from 28 Jan to 16 Feb was 8.9 C with eight days in the Feb portion at 9.5 or higher (3rd to 8th, 10th, 16th).

So, unless they are computing the actual averages of all days in the season (this makes it a bit easier for 2015-16 to beat 1868-69 because of that mild February in 1869), I don't see how this mildest winter of all time claim is yet justified. It may or may not end up that way but February 2016 needs 5.2 just to tie for first using their own methodology.

[The PIT]

Looking like Sunny Sheffield will finish on 4.2C average enough. It may end on 4.3C if tonight is very mild. Joint 4th warmest winter on our records coming in at 5.9C.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 28th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is -1.9C, while maxima look like being in the low to mid 9s early tomorrow morning.
That means that a final value of 5.0C before corrections is almost certain.

[Froze were the Days]

Amazing just how many people got both January and February fairly close on their guesses  - after the December debacle, less mild for both those months but still above average.

[DAVID SNOW]

Final figure looks to be 4.9.

Matt Taylor, you are a naughty boy.