C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 2.7C, while maxima look like reaching the low 12s, so an increase to 5.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.5C to the 21st (10.6: +6.5) {Record High: 10.6C]
5.6C to the 22nd (7.3: +3.1)
5.5C to the 23rd (4.2: -0.1)
5.4C to the 24th (2.2: -2.5)
5.2C to the 25th (1.6: -2.7)
5.2C to the 26th (4.1: -0.8)
5.1C to the 27th (2.9: -2.4)
5.1C to the 28th (3.5: -1.7)
5.0C to the 29th (3.7: -0.7)

Quite a cool end to the month likely now, with the odds shifting against a record mild winter.
 

[snowray]

Yes a fascinating time coming up, charts looking decidedly colder next week, makes me wonder if we could come close the the average for February, certainly a good chance that we will end up in the 4's. So not the mildest winter on record after all.

Edited February 20, 2016 by snowray

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield bang on average at 4.3C.

Today cooler than forecast so far it's a question where the front goes for now.

[damianslaw]

A colder than average end to the month is now forecast, so the chances of recording the warmest CET winter value ever now appear quite slim.. I suspect Scotland will end up with at least an average Feb CET. Overall it will have felt more like a winter month for many compared to Dec and Jan (in the main). Here it has felt quite average the last couple of weeks despite the very mild start, and with next week looking cold, overall a fairly average February, hopefully we've some snow thrown in before the month's end.

The last week had potential to be quite a snowy one, the synoptics didn't quite come right, but we weren't far off. 3rd time lucky perhaps (after the mid Jan cold spell)

[The PIT]

Plenty of time for cold to have the normal downgrade to average so bets still on for me.

A quick look tonight made me think snow but not particular cold rather the snow due to the air being very dry.

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎16‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 9:20 PM, DAVID SNOW said:

The models now firming up on the cool/cold last weak of February(as expected) so no record breaker this season.

So here we are 4 days later, and the cold spell is even colder than I expected!

[Relativistic]

Hang on a second, we still have over a week left of February, this cold snap is not set in stone yet! Mildest winter ever is still on.

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 20th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Interitus]

21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A colder than average end to the month is now forecast, so the chances of recording the warmest CET winter value ever now appear quite slim.. I suspect Scotland will end up with at least an average Feb CET.

As CET is Central England Temperature not quite sure what you mean by that!

Anyway with the sporting analogies, if this winter doesn't record the warmest it may be more like Devon Loch in the 1956 Grand National -

 

 

Edited February 21, 2016 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 7.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 13s, so an increase to 5.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.5C to the 22nd (6.5: +2.3)
5.5C to the 23rd (4.2: -0.2)
5.4C to the 24th (2.6: -2.1)
5.2C to the 25th (1.8: -2.5)
5.1C to the 26th (1.9: -3.0)
5.0C to the 27th (2.5: -2.8)
4.9C to the 28th (3.0: -2.2)
4.8C to the 29th (2.6: -1.9)

Today's maximum needs to be 13.5C to tie the daily record, or 13.7C to beat it.

Once again, the cold end to the month has strengthened, so much so that reaching the 81-10 average after corrections cannot be ruled out.
 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I thought I'd undercooked it with my 4.8C call.  It might be too high!
It doesn't feel like the mildest winter on record outside right now.  Glad to see some colder conditions, but I'm not hoping for a repeat of March/April 2013.  One last cold shot with snow then spring please

Edited February 22, 2016 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

No update so far

[Roger J Smith]

Summer Sun -- they did eventually post a value -- it was

5.5 C through 21st.

(+1.8 relative to 1961-1990)

(+1.2 relative to 1981-2010)

Edited February 23, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

No record for the 21st, short by 0.5C. The 00z GFS would have the CET at about 4.8C before corrections. So an average month is still right on the edge of possibilities after corrections.

Edited February 23, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Looks like its going to be a late update again today

[BornFromTheVoid]

Estimating the minimum today as 2.0C, with maxima in the low 7s, should give a CET of 5.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.4C to the 24th (2.5: -2.2)
5.2C to the 25th (1.6: -2.7)
5.1C to the 26th (2.5: -2.4)
5.0C to the 27th (2.4: -2.9)
4.9C to the 28th (3.0: -2.2)
4.8C to the 29th (2.5: -1.9)

A well below average end to the month. Estimated value before corrections of 4.6C to 5.1C, so 4.2C to 5.1C after corrections. Best estimate around 4.6C.
 

[Weather-history]

Chilly last week to Februaries of recent times (21st-28th or 22nd-29th)

2013: 2.6

2006: 3.4

2005: 1.8

2004: 1.9

2001: 3.4

 

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 22nd

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 23, 2016 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

What was the CET for the 10th-20th period. It's interesting that such a mild winter may end up producing three thirds of a month with reasonably cold CET values.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

What was the CET for the 10th-20th period. It's interesting that such a mild winter may end up producing three thirds of a month with reasonably cold CET values.

3.7C provisionally.

[Roger J Smith]

Not only is the winter falling off the pace of mildest (1868-69 .. 6.77) it is now in some danger of tying or finishing below second place 1833-34. February needs to be 4.5 to tie that winter (6.53). At 4.4 it ties 1988-89 for third (6.50), at 4.3 it is fourth and at 4.2 it joins 2006-07 and 1974-75 in a three-way tie for fourth place (6.43). At 4.1 or 4.0 it would be sixth alone and 3.9 would see it tied for 6th with 1685-86 (6.33). That's about as far as the extreme combination of actual values and downward adjustment might go.

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 23rd

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of -2.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 6s, so a drop to 5.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.2C to the 25th (2.1: -2.2)
5.1C to the 26th (1.8: -3.1)
5.0C to the 27th (2.1: -3.2)
4.9C to the 28th (2.5: -2.7)
4.8C to the 29th (2.0: -2.4)

A likely range now of 4.7C to 4.9C before corrections, and 4.3C to 4.9C after corrections. Best guess is 4.6C.
 

[damianslaw]

Surprised the CET yesterday was held at 5.5 degrees, we had widespread sub zero mins.. I'm expected a fair downward correction at the month's end, some of the CET returns look quite dubious to me..

Also had it not been for the marked warm up last weekend, we would most likely be looking at a CET not too far away from the 81-10 average.

For Scotland and far N of England I suspect the final value will be quite an average February.

Tomorrow looks like returning a cold CET value, coldest of the month, possibly coldest of the season so far.. anyone have the stats for coldest CET value day of the winter so far?

[March]

Well yesterday's highs were higher than forecast.