South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[Dami]

look at that baby

[tinybill]

that line of rain going to bring a lot of rain  in a short time  very soon to us  soon

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Squall coming through, wind nothing major the rain is nuts! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay.. Wind follows the rain Some pretty big gusts 

[March]

Squall just been and gone. It wasn't that impressive, looking at the radar it seems our section lost some strength just before passing and there was a section about 15/20 miles south a lot stronger. Had better this year. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Now all quite and stopped raining..

[Dami]

oh well a little bit of excitement, shame not a rumble but can't have it all

[loopydreamer]

Squally here now... it's really wild out here 

Edited March 26, 2016 by loopydreamer

[loopydreamer]

Oh... it's stopped already... lol

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, loopydreamer said:

Oh... it's stopped already... lol

It looked frightening on the radar but was over before it started, here I was going to hide under my bed.

Edited March 26, 2016 by lassie23

[Captain Shortwave]

We had a 10 minute spell of heavy rain and strong winds, just about over now.

[HammerJack]

If carlsberg done squalls, it certainly wouldn't be like that.... 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A level one from estofex an interesting read too, although some terminology that goes a bit whoosh over the head 

Another depression over the N-Bay of Biscay will move to the NE during the night while gaining strength. 1PVU maps show a steep horizontal potential temperature gradient and partial overlap of SE-ward surging cold front with eastward spreading dry mid/upper level air. A few limiting points exists however: the cold front outruns steeper mid-level lapse rates during the end of the forecast and the surface front seems to be affected by strong subsidence at mid-levels. However a small corridor of overlap may exists and a convectively enhanced line with showers/isolated thunderstorms could evolve beneath the cyclonically curved 45 m/s mid-level speed max. Shear would be supportive for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Due to ongoing uncertainties, a level 1 was issued.

It has to be mentioned that past model runs (f.ex. GFS) showed a classic pattern for an organized convective line with more widespread enhanced convection. The development of this depression has to be monitored closely in case of better overlap of ingredients compared to current data. 
The level 1 was expanded to SE UK, which could also be affected by the cold front.

[alexisj9]

Still raining here, though has got a little lighter recently, has the front stalled?

Been over two hours now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning all think I have been spoilt already today waking up and snapping these 

 

 

[tinybill]

14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Morning all think I have been spoilt already today waking up and snapping these 

 

 

radar  picking some heavy looking showers  in our area all  ready

[stainesbloke]

Beautiful sunny start to the day here but already cloudier with the potential for some lively showers later. 

Tomorrow looks not too bad now with any severe winds confined to coasts and the far SE, affecting N France and Benelux more.

Happy Easter everyone! I'm off to get fat on chocolates 

[Captain Shortwave]

We have had some light showers already down in south Essex, convective potential looks decent so despite some rain there will be plenty of interest for those who like their explosive cloudscapes and thundery showers.

Tomorrows conditions still dependent on the track and movement of that secondary low, if it moves a little further south and exits the UK quicker then we might get away with an okay day and mainly dry conditions will follow the rain band.

Edited March 27, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[NO LONGER POSTING]

And we have lift off..

 

[Snoopie42]

Morning and Happy Easter! Think most of the detail available at this stage with regard Katie has already been discussed, however, see latest charts below for reference.

GFS 850's and Wind Gusts

   00z

   03z

Arpege

Arome

GFS Precipitation

 

Certainly some notable weather overnight, worryingly so in the Channel / South coast. You would think that an Orange warning would be issued by the Met Office at some point today? Certainly will be interesting to see how this unfolds as there is still time for upgrades and downgrades, whichever your preference? In the here and now, sky has just gone black....looks like a hefty shower approaching! Have a good day all!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@Snoopie42 undecided on tonight still, re exactly above high res models all have a larger area of higher winds with higher gusts while the gfs is well out on its own (bar the euro4 kinda backing it)

Strange such massive differences at short range..

Some hefty showers incoming sky gone black to my south 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Regarding tonight and tomorrow, the divergence really comes from when the low in question enters the cold side of the jetstream and hence undergoes rapid cyclogenesis (deepens as it engages the cold air at 500mb). The longer it takes for this to happen the further south and shallower the low will be (the deepening process causes the low to take a more northerly vector and also moves through slower).  At this point the system is still sitting on the warm side of the jet running through the Atlantic as a shortwave feature with no distinct closed low. The model output tonight should give an idea of how things will pan out as the system is expected to start deepening during this evening. 

[Snoopie42]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

@Snoopie42 undecided on tonight still, re exactly above high res models all have a larger area of higher winds with higher gusts while the gfs is well out on its own (bar the euro4 kinda backing it)

Strange such massive differences at short range..

Some hefty showers incoming sky gone black to my south 

 

@Surrey yes, I'm the same. Very odd that they are so different so close to the event....We will have to wait and see what unfolds? Shower just about to hit here, sky very dark......now thundering! It's on its Way Surrey!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thunder here! some big wind gusts too

[Emz by the Thames]

Thunder!!  Knew it was coming 10 minutes ago as I now know a convective raindrop when I see one!

A Happy Easter indeed!!