South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[lassie23]

Hopefully it will end up a damp squid.

[Dami]

fingers crossed. 

[tinybill]

Is That  Katie  in the channel  if it  is  she looking  mean and  nasty

 

[Rain123]

Another shower passing through. Looks like a few heavier bursts in it too are heading for me.

[AdamStorm7891]

Had a couple of really torrential showers pass through here today with hail and gusty squally winds. Been waiting for our garden fence to go already so I'll be surprised if it survives tonight/tomorrow!

Met Office now upgrading their warnings to Amber for the far South-East, I can easily see 55-60mph even in the London region and 65-75mph in coastal regions possibly slightly higher locally.

[Essex winter]

Its not looking good for our part of the world.very likely be a few trees & fences down by the morning.batten down & stay safe guys.

[AdamStorm7891]

6 minutes ago, Essex winter said:

Its not looking good for our part of the world.very likely be a few trees & fences down by the morning.batten down & stay safe guys.

They're now saying the winds will persist up until about lunchtime tomorrow!

[Daniel*]

Good to see the amber warnings out I did expect this several day ago

It does cover a big chunk of Southeast England. I can only assume all those counties in Amber catchment are at risk of seeing 70mph gusts.

Edited March 27, 2016 by Daniel*

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Hopefully it will end up a damp squid.

SQUIB Lassie  "a damp firework that doesnt go off" Squids are always damp.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Good to see the amber warnings out I did expect this several day ago

It does cover a big chunk of Southeast England. I can only assume all those counties in Amber catchment are at risk of seeing 70mph gusts.

Been a little while I have heard a 70mph wind gust 

Edited March 27, 2016 by Surrey

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Biggin said:

SQUIB Lassie  "a damp firework that doesnt go off" Squids are always damp.

Didn't sound right, but i thought i'd risk itThanks BTW

[Blessed Weather]

1 minute ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

They're now saying the winds will persist up until about lunchtime tomorrow!

Interesting! I've been noting for the last couple of days that the Arpege model was forecasting that the initial southerly strong winds between 03.00 and 05.00 Monday (agreed by all models) would be followed later by westerly strong winds later into the morning, around 11.00 or 12.00, as Katie exited into the N. Sea. Arpege was out on it's own with this forecast and the NMM and GFS didn't support the idea. It's only on the NMM 12z run this afternoon that there's finally a move towards the Arpege. You can see how the NMM 12z chart finally resembles the charts the Arpege has been producing for the last 2 days.

Of course will have to let the next 18 hours play out to give a final verdict on which model was closest!

First the NMM runs for mid Monday morning:

Sat 0z  Sun 0z  Sun 12z

Next the Arpege runs for mid Monday morning:

Sat 0z  Sun 0z  Sun 12z

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS also backing the high res, although winds not as strong.. Time will tell 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Am I reading that right.. 4mb lower in an hour 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Dami said:

Yep that looks right, Surrey. Sorry tab messing up, couldn't get rid of this quote, and wouldn't let me type underneath it.

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Am I reading that right.. 4mb lower in an hour 

Yep looks about right Surrey, hopefully she slows her build up down substantially.

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Didn't sound right, but i thought i'd risk itThanks BTW

Well you never know, it could end up raining calamari.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

25 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep looks about right Surrey, hopefully she slows her build up down substantially.

She best do, she's bombing down quick! Will post up 7pm chart up shortly 

[Biggin]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Didn't sound right, but i thought i'd risk itThanks BTW

Only jesting lassie, all good

[Biggin]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

Bedtime, up later peeps.

Edited March 27, 2016 by Biggin

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Steady at 7pm let's see what 8pm shows

 

Edited March 27, 2016 by Surrey

[tinybill]

996  reading at   the  moment  before Katie gets  her act  together looking at  the  radar it's  going to get a  bit  wet  in the south  east very  soon

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hmm.. 

 

[Coopsy]

Gonna be an interesting morning...

[Daniel*]

I was about to post that Surrey quite concerning if so.

She's deeper than modelled and thus that brings a greater chance of more severe weather conditions? The next c.12 hours will be interesting.

 

Edited March 27, 2016 by Daniel*