Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Nick L]

Theme of the 12z EC is essentially pretty cold but largely dry aside from the odd light snow shower drifting in off the North Sea.

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

That doesn't sound good enough for with in 15 miles of the coast, need -9 at least if precip is light,   Unless there are other more  conducive parameters.  No point worrying about it yet I suppose. 

The Irish coast benefits by having more lively precipitation though. Worth monitoring on the next few runs.

[Banbury]

Cant grumble with that

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

You have to laugh, its amazing what doesnt look too good, some are so hard to please

Feeling cold in a set up that we craved for, you never know what might crop up

Ok so u don't think it's borderline for snow on the south at weekend,with -2/6 uppers?

[karyo]

Just now, Banbury said:

Cant grumble with that

That's an improvement to the 0z ECM for the same period. :-)

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Theme of the 12z EC is essentially pretty cold but largely dry aside from the odd light snow shower drifting in off the North Sea.

The 240 could be pretty snowy though if that Low tracks where I think it is going to though.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok so u don't think it's borderline for snow in the south at weekend,with -2/6 uppers?

 

[bradymk]

ECM sticking with the mainly dry and cold theme again so far..

[terrier]

Good day all round from the models today great update from Ian f earlier. I know a lot crave snow but cold and dry will suit many round here after all the flooding we have endured. 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

 

Probably is but its certainly cold and harsh frosts

[Banbury]

Good set up

[MR EXTREMES]

Expect the ecm 240 to be cold 

[bradymk]

Another slider at +216, and very cold over the UK. Looking like a possible lengthy spell of cold

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Expect the ecm 240 to be cold 

The 216 is cold

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

The 216 is cold

Expect the -10 close to Scotland 

[MR EXTREMES]

The ecm 240 is epic for longevity look at the deep purples heading back towards Scandinavia and into Europe could be pretty exciting start to spring 

[nick sussex]

The UKMO looking like by far the best output at T144hrs and likely beyond if it went past that point. The ECM drops the low south but too far west and with less cold advection into the UK from the ne. The GFS has the low a bit further east but doesn't develop anything like the height rises towards the nw.

The ECM is better than the GFS past T168hrs as it looks like cutting shortwaves se in towards the UK and keeps the PV lobes separated. The GFS reforms low heights to the north.

So a mixed bag of outputs this evening, colder yes but depth of cold could be a lot better.

 

[SMU]

Well the ECM almost trumps the UKMO but the UkMO has lower heights over the UK at 120-144 & probably slightly lower 850s

At 216 -240 the UK surface temps close to sub 2c days with mainland Uk at -9c 850 in very still air.

 

very cold over night if theres any snowcover !

S

Edited February 21, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Well the ECM almost trumps the UKMO but the UkMO has lower heights over the UK at 120-144 & probably slightly lower 850s

At 216 -240 the UK surface temps close to sub 2c days with mainland Uk at -9c 850 in very still air.

very cold over night if theres any snowcover !

S

It's not as cold at the surface as you'd imagine. Generally 4-5c for most of England and Wales by day on the 2m temps. 

[Harsh Climate]

Over the next 7 days or so I see little in the way of snow in the form of convective snow showers, but there is certainly the potential for frontal snowfall as energy tries to spill in from the west into our cold pool.

If the north sea snow machine is to switch on we really do need some sort of reload with -10 uppers and the wind off the sea.

ECM 240h looks to be headed that way

 

[damianslaw]

All models showing a rather cold end to winter, possibly notable cold by the very end of the month and into spring...

ECM showing extensive northern blocking with a flow from the NE as we enter March, its a long way off, but it is a very cold blocked wintry pattern which usually signifies it is picking up a major change in the northern hemispheric set up. Indeed it has a classic east based negative NAO about it - the best position for cold snow lovers..

GFS less keen in showing the same degree of blocking, namely because it isn't showing the same level of strong heights to the NE or NW.

UKMO showing a potent arctic maritime airstream.

In the meantime we have a cold northerly episode on our doorstep, frost and dry sunny days with chance of snow showers in any trough developments, which won't be picked up correctly at this range.

What is now encouraging for anyone hoping for something more sustained cold wise, is the fact the models have continued to upgrade the chances over recent days.. and everything perhaps seems to be falling into place.. we shall see though.

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It's not as cold at the surface as you'd imagine. Generally 4-5c for most of England and Wales by day on the 2m temps. 

I find that the ecm generally overstates the T2m on its raw data. 

Howevet, in a sunny situation at the end of February, I expect it could be there or thereabouts, especially as there is no snowccover across england and Wales. 

[Daniel*]

Overnight lows punishingly cold at or below -15*C in Highland glens I'd guess, In mid winter I'm sure there would be an ice day for quite a few on alas it is March, ripe for hoar frosts.

I would think maxima would go no higher than 3C for London

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It's not as cold at the surface as you'd imagine. Generally 4-5c for most of England and Wales by day on the 2m temps. 

Possibly but I believe 100% that over a large swathe of the Uk at 216 & 240 you would be close on ice days should the ECM varify...

 

[Frosty.]

No complaints from me about the Ecm 12z.. the current mild mush across the southern half of the UK this weekend will shortly be sent packing and the week ahead then becomes progressively colder from the north with frosts becoming more widespread and severe in places with crisp sunny days but also the chance of wintry showers, most frequent across exposed northern and eastern counties but the cold air becomes entrenched across most of the UK and there is no sign of mild air returning on this run. I hope we are in for a prolonged cold spell, get the cold air in place and see what happens with variations on the cold theme as the ukmo 12z showed earlier!