Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Summer Sun]

WOW simply wow

[blizzard81]

I am itching for the ECM to come out. Exciting times if you are a weather extreme nut like me

[Polar Maritime]

Some high Cape values to boot, Lets hope Summer ends on a high!

Edited August 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z ens shows the Op and Control were at the top end saying that the mean still touches 15 for the 850's

Hardly any rain on the London ens for another 10 days at least

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is a BEAUTY from Friday onwards to the end, forget how crappy June was, summer 2016 would be redeemed if anything like this occurs...lots of very warm settled weather and some thunderstorms next week due to the heat / humidity.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Gobsmacked seeing this after a couple of days off! 

Dont think I've ever seen the 23c isotherm line visit even close to our shores, apart from 2003, which saw the 22c line scrape the southeast. This could be quite historical if it does materialise. Just about the right time too for this to happen as the thermal lag effect is at its greatest point. We've touched 35.4c in September in Cambridgeshire before, so the realms of challenging 38c are certainly not out of the question here. 

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Gobsmacked seeing this after a couple of days off! 

Dont think I've ever seen the 23c isotherm line visit even close to our shores, apart from 2003, which saw the 22c line scrape the southeast. This could be quite historical if it does materialise. Just about the right time too for this to happen as the thermal lag effect is at its greatest point. We've touched 35.4c in September in Cambridgeshire before, so the realms of challenging 38c are certainly not out of the question here. 

Yes, VERY nice charts, imagine a nice thundery breakdown with those sorts of temps....looking very 80's-style!

Edited August 8, 2016 by stainesbloke

[terrier]

Well those charts tonight are looking nice and toasty looks like 35c won't be out of the equation into early next week looking at the gfs could be fun trying to sleep. But you just know that it will be red hot while we're at work come the weekend bet it disappears lol!!!!

[phil nw.]

Just as we feared our indifferent Summer would go on we see some warm and dry August charts.

The ens runs have in fairness been consistently showing the build of pressure from the Azores high and with time ending up as a blocking Scandinavian high.The 12z anomalies from the GFS shows this again

 

This pattern certainly has the potential for drawing heat north from the sub tropics as today's GFS op run shows.Either way it does look like a nice warm up with little rain about after mid-week.

 

[Singularity]

A classic trend with Scandi Highs is to see the jet stream trend weaker and then disrupt against the ridge with a trough split to the west.

ECM arrived today that this morning and now GFS has jumped into the cooking pot.

Funny really; it's a subtle variant on the very setup we chase in winter when seeking a continental style freeze.

This, though, would be more threatening to people's health while still hitting productivity but perhaps not as hard as widespread ice can do. Fascinating weather but dangerous in its own ways.

[William of Walworth]

These recent ultra-plumey charts do look pretty extreme for mid-next-week agreed. I was very sceptical about them until recently, but it does look like confirmation can't be far off.

My personal preference though, is for HP dominance/blocking to last beyond the extreme part of the heatwave that's now starting (possibly?!) to look like it's on the cards.

HP generally, even with moderate warmth,  for both this coming weekend and for the weekend of Sat 20th August, would be my option to pick.

So Scorcher's earlier question, about how long it all might last, is surely key here.

[Bristawl Si]

Fergie alluded to a Scandi block forming 2nd half of August in a tweet over a week ago. Glosea or Mogreps doing the business again.

Not a fan of Scandi highs in Summer - air becomes v smoggy as we import cr@p air from the continent.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Bristle boy

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyway before the potential insanity of next week, we have the weekend,

   

   

Looks mostly fine with good sunny spells and at this point it is warm rather than hot. Maybe some showers in the north on Saturday. The GFS does look warmer for the weekend as the jet is further north on Friday and Saturday and hence keep a large part of the UK in a tropical maritime airmass, the ECM however clears a front south east Friday night so a pleasant weekend whilst the GFS is very warm. Lets see how things develop from here.

[Derecho]

ECM looking good at T+168...

[Man With Beard]

I present ensemble member 3 from the GEFS - this would be utterly insane, and in all honesty, in need of a Government health warning

              

[phil nw.]

Off topic posts have been removed.

Just a reminder to please stick to model discussion-general chat for other threads.Thanks all.

Edited August 8, 2016 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

Two hot days from ECM tonight with the peak seeing the 850's touching 21

[blizzard81]

Don't know about anyone else but the transition on ecm between 168z and 192z looks way over progressive. On the 168 chart we have things in prime position for the plume to have a direct hit into the UK but on the the 192 chart it looks like it has moved on 48/72 hours, not 24. Just doesn't look right to me

[SMU]

ECM somewhat more progressive than the GFS & more indicitive of the usual Uk hot spell....

still his 21c uppers though-

[blizzard81]

Well as the ecm didn't wake up and smell the scandi high coffee until this morning, I have more faith in the GFS for now.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM somewhat more progressive than the GFS & more indicitive of the usual Uk hot spell....

still his 21c uppers though-

Now there's a turn up, usually it's the gfs which is more progressive!

[March]

More runs needed! 

[Man With Beard]

  

In all honesty that's pretty good agreement for a D9 chart - and it must be remembered, even if this was showing at D4 it could still change a little by the time D0 arrives

GEM way different, though still warm

 

 

[blizzard81]

I think the ecm 12z op is having a bit of a wobble. A little like the overnight gfs op 00z run.

[joggs]

I do get the feeling we might just see the western edge of the plume imo.This being a blend of the GFS,ECM, latest and meto outlook.I thought the background signals weren't conducive to a long holding hot spell,tamara's musings,and been on the money this summer.

Edited August 8, 2016 by joggs