Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[ANYWEATHER]

On ‎07‎/‎08‎/‎2016 at 20:19, Man With Beard said:

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

 

[Methuselah]

Those charts look wonderful and frightening, at the same time...

AS to the question asked above - there was a heatwave in August 1973 that saw 35C reached at RAF Mildenhall...

[mb018538]

Great looking runs, Sod's law I'll be in the desert southwest of the USA for potentially the hottest day of the year! I shall watch on intently either way. Hoping this plume sticks!

[Faronstream]

 GFS 12Z today  is extremely exaggerative, the high pressure will move to the east much faster and not take place over Scandinavia for a longer time, this summer has been kinda dry for many places in west Europé so now humidity will take place for sure.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

The warm spell will be shown to be brief this time next week . Met office predict 48 hours of warmth. The gfs will downgrade shortly according to my analysis of the anomalies and synoptic charts. The high will flatten and recede back to Azores.  I'm hoping I'm wrong but the +168 and + 240 have been regularly wrong this summer. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a spanish plume during the first half of next week with hot and humid conditions with hazy sunshine and scattered intense thunderstorms being set off as well as importing storms from France too..so, our second plume of the summer appears to be on the way but the good news starts before then as high pressure and increasing warmth arrive in the south of the uk by Friday and then nationwide by the weekend with temps into the low to mid 20's c from north to south but then early next week as winds go around to the s / se we import continental heat and humidity with temps well into the 80's F and for parts of the s / se well into the 90's..a very summery spell looks like its on the way.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

WOW simply wow

This won't happen

 

[Nigelapplewhit4]

3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a spanish plume during the first half of next week with hot and humid conditions with hazy sunshine and scattered intense thunderstorms being set off as well as importing storms from France too..so, our second plume of the summer appears to be on the way but the good news starts before then as high pressure and increasing warmth arrive in the south of the uk by Friday and then nationwide by the weekend with temps into the low to mid 20's c from north to south but then early next week as winds go around to the s / se we import continental heat and humidity with temps well into the 80's F and for parts of the s / se well into the 90's..a very summery spell looks like its on the way.

By Wednesday thunderstorms will arrive and much cooler weather will be here around August 18th 2016...then unsettled with a ne/sw split. It might be hot and humid but these conditions never ever last in england. 

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

The warm spell will be shown to be brief this time next week . Met office predict 48 hours of warmth. The gfs will downgrade shortly according to my analysis of the anomalies and synoptic charts. The high will flatten and recede back to Azores.  I'm hoping I'm wrong but the +168 and + 240 have been regularly wrong this summer. 

Welcome! It's been an odd summer. On occasion, what you've said is true, but the opposite has also happened, like the mini heatwave in July.

What makes this different is the potential for a Scandinavia High. If it slips away fast, so will the plume. But if it sticks, it could split the incoming Atlantic trough and actually push back, sustaining the heat. A few ensembles have shown this. We see this happen sometimes in winter. But it can take until 4 or 5 days out (T96/T120) to firm up on the models. The ECM is traditionally the king of the Scandi High, and I know the extended ECM ens this morning kept a bias to heights over Scandi until T312, so will be very interesting to see ahead.

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

By Wednesday thunderstorms will arrive and much cooler weather will be here around August 18th 2016...then unsettled with a ne/sw split. It might be hot and humid but these conditions never ever last in england. 

Uh, I guess you are too young to remember hot months of years gone by like July 2006, August 2003, August 1997, July/August 1995, August 1990, July 1989, July 1983.. the list is endless. Heatwaves used to be a somewhat regular occurrence. The fact that we've gone 13 years without a heatwave in August is far more exceptional than what GFS is currently showing and IMO we are well overdue an August heatwave. Odds are we will get one eventually - this year might be the year. 

Edited August 8, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

Nearly all the operational output and the ens mean charts are indicating a hot spell next week..as are the met office. I think it's going to happen and it could be better than July last year! :- )

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

16 minutes ago, cheese said:

 this year might be the year. 

I'm very confident this year WILL be the year

[Mark wheeler]

36 minutes ago, Nigelapplewhit4 said:

This won't happen

 

Although very unlikely to happen I think many are just enjoying the mere possibility of that coming off and the fact the models are even contemplating it eh. Question to others ? If that chart where to happen surely records would be broken?

Edited August 8, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[Snowy L]

What a run by the GFS, the uppers easily beat those seen on 10th August 2003. That year the 20c line just about made our shores, the 12z today shows it comfortably over most of England with the South Coast approaching 23/24c. Don't pay attention to the 2m temps, they regularly show 30c not being reached in Cyprus for example, even though it's mid thirties every day over there. This set up would easily be 35c for the UK and most likely heading towards 37, 38 or even 39C in some spots.

 

I'm very confident of this hot spell happening because it coincides with me leaving the country on the 14th

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

What a run by the GFS, the uppers easily beat those seen on 10th August 2003. That year the 20c line just about made our shores, the 12z today shows it comfortably over most of England with the South Coast approaching 23/24c. Don't pay attention to the 2m temps, they regularly show 30c not being reached in Cyprus for example, even though it's mid thirties every day over there. This set up would easily be 35c for the UK and most likely heading towards 37, 38 or even 39C in some spots.

 

I'm very confident of this hot spell happening because it coincides with me leaving the country on the 14th

Bugger me! It seems as if the shower stool might be a good investment? Can one cope with three days' perpetual cold showers?

[Man With Beard]

26 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Although very unlikely to happen I think many are just enjoying the mere possibility of that coming off and the fact the models are even contemplating it eh. Question to others ? If that chart where to happen surely records would be broken?

Based on the GFS 12Z, 36/37C is my punt. If it had been two weeks ago, 38/39C.

Latest GFS perhaps a couple of degrees down but it's immaterial at the moment - the trends are being set, the detail will follow in a few days, if it's still showing.

 

[bryan629]

35 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Nearly all the operational output and the ens mean charts are indicating a hot spell next week..as are the met office. I think it's going to happen and it could be better than July last year! :- )

Absolutely agree with you Karl, all the evidence points to an upward spike in pressure and temperature next week. 

Cohens AO blog typifies this weeks slightly subdued weather this week in terms of cool, but then talks of a surge in warmth next week for Western Europe. 

You really dont want to read what he says for later on in the month... I`ll get my coat on that one lol... but the here and now is some fantasticweather being modelled and look forward to... regardless of a 20c hpa isotherm arriving a 16 will do anyday of summer... 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

 

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

a big miserable downgrade on the 18z, wouldn't bother calling it a heatwave.

[SMU]

Some people getting carried away talking about records & 2003 - theres a reason its a record because the conditions were totally optimal -

The current outlook doesnt look as good - infact the evening trend hasnt been that great - moving the hot uppers eastwards quicker - certainly a hot plume on the cards however its still a few days away yet so the pendulum could swing either way !

Also looks to windy for record breaking heat - ideal conditions are dead calm still stagnent air -

I will go with a punt of 34c being the top temp

[Gael_Force]

46 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Absolutely agree with you Karl, all the evidence points to an upward spike in pressure and temperature next week. 

Cohens AO blog typifies this weeks slightly subdued weather this week in terms of cool, but then talks of a surge in warmth next week for Western Europe. 

You really dont want to read what he says for later on in the month... I`ll get my coat on that one lol... but the here and now is some fantasticweather being modelled and look forward to... regardless of a 20c hpa isotherm arriving a 16 will do anyday of summer... 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

There was too much store set on this man's blog last winter, remains to be seen if there is any improvement on the prediction skill in summer.

[Nigelapplewhit4]

Warm air gets swept away next Wednesday to Friday as a deep area of low pressure brings heavy rain and cold weather to uk. High pressure returns the following weekend. Very cold today in Manchester. 

[Man With Beard]

00z ensembles for London

Still looking hot next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, perhaps even Thursday, perhaps lower 30s rather than upper 30s at the peak. Fewer runs stay hot later in the run but still fairly dry. Not quite as hot as previously forecast for Sunday.

But the main theme is, from this Thursday for about a week, very warm and mostly sunny weather - most prolonged in the SE, but most other parts of the UK enjoying plenty of good days too.

[cheese]

The only thing I'm disappointed with is the weekend. It's looking fine and warm for the south but up here things look iffy - Sunday looking particularly precarious with GFS going for high teens here, despite higher pressure than Thurs-Sat which are all expected to reach low 20s.

[mb018538]

7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Some people getting carried away talking about records & 2003 - theres a reason its a record because the conditions were totally optimal -

The current outlook doesnt look as good - infact the evening trend hasnt been that great - moving the hot uppers eastwards quicker - certainly a hot plume on the cards however its still a few days away yet so the pendulum could swing either way !

Also looks to windy for record breaking heat - ideal conditions are dead calm still stagnent air -

I will go with a punt of 34c being the top temp

I agree with what Steve is saying here - there is absolutely zero chance of 2003 being threatened here, even if 850s do end up exceeding 20c - that really was a perfect storm, Europe had baked all summer, perfect slack airflow. This looks breezy which will knock temps down a bit, but provided the heat is still drawn up, 32c+ should be on the cards.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z indicates fine and warm for the south on saturday under high pressure, more changeable further north but by sun / mon the whole of the uk is under the influence of high pressure and increasing warmth with temps into the mid 20's celsius further south and low 20's c in the north...so, it looks like a very summery outlook with the weather hotting up and becoming more humid from the south after the weekend with hazy sunshine and then comes the thunderstorms.