Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Polar Maritime]

And back on topic please, There is the Summer thread for chit-chat. Thanks please continue.

Edited August 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[markyo]

22 minutes ago, Karl. said:

If it was a choice between another plume and yet more cool Atlantic dross I would take a plume but if it was  choice between another plume and a major anticyclonic very warm spell then I would take that since it's what's been missing from this misfiring summer. There are signs we could be on course for our best spell of the summer..Fingers and toes crossed!

I'd pass on the plume,not my favourite but very much agree that a warm anticyclonic spell is so much better than the cloud and crap so far this summer. Hopefully something in the middle will occur!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

Today was perfect,why want more? 

It's been a poor summer up north, of course I want more and i'm cautiously optimistic we will get more according to the latest models :- )

This is our opportunity for a real taste of summer that lasts more than a day or two..Bring it on!

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

It's been a poor summer up north, of course I want more and i'm cautiously optimistic we will get more according to the latest models :- )

This is our opportunity for a real taste of summer that lasts more than a day or two..Bring it on!

Charts are showing as you rightly posted a change to much warmer conditions,how warm only i suspect the next 72hr  will see,just got to get a settling down of the output to really get a hold on it.

[Frosty.]

Another Fantastic GEFS 12z mean which clearly indicates a pattern change to prolonged summery weather with a strongly influential Azores high and even better, height rises to the east as well. The mean keeps showing this so I believe the best of this summer by far is still to come with a nationwide summery extended outlook..let's finish summer on a high note..literally!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is remarkably similar to the 00z with high pressure and increasing warmth from later next week and then a slow moving low to the west helping to scoop up continental heat and humidity ahead of it so that temperatures rocket into the 80's F and maybe even higher! This also indicates a thundery breakdown later.

[Singularity]

That week 2 ensemble mean has been all too rare a sight these past few summers. The GEFS mean today (and for a few days now) has been pretty similar for the same period.

Given the persistence of ECM and GEM with more progressive solutions (greater pressure from a deep Atlantic trough), it will be interesting to see how well the American models fare (wait - is GEM a Canadian model or do I have that wrong?). Lately I've been impressed with GFS but it took this weekend's ridge too far (though not as much as UKMO did on that one extraordinary run) whereas ECM has turned out to be nearer the mark with the storm tracking faster and further south. Though it still wasn't fast enough when this weekend was in the mid-range!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean mirrors the operational run with high pressure building in from the southwest later next week with increasingly settled and warmer weather, especially across the southern half of the uk. Later in the run there is a low to the west which scoops very warm and humid continental air ahead of it northwards into the uk...if that hypothetical low was to stall further west there would be potential for quite a significant plume event. I'm looking forward to finding out which model is right, the Gfs / Gefs currently support our best anticyclonic spell of the summer for most of the second half of August while the ecm is going with three or four fine days then thunderstorms...

Edited August 6, 2016 by Karl.

[Man With Beard]

Well this is getting strange. Another day, another set of runs looking dry, sunny and warm from about T96 onwards, right to the end with GFS. The only fly in the ointment so far is the UKMO, which brings the passing trough to the north a little closer at T144, bringing the possibility of a less settled day next weekend for Scotland. ECM still rolling out at time of writing but looks OK so far, perhaps halfway between GFS and UKMO?

edit- oops, ECM like UKMO is perilously close to flattening the pattern by T144/T168. So GFS a little out on its own this morning - but of course it does have better backing from recent ensembles and NOAA 6-10 anomalies.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z shows the south of the uk settling down from later in the week ahead as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest but it takes longer for the north of the uk to improve, however, high pressure wins! and later in the run we have an anticyclone centred over the uk which slowly migrates to the east and helps to block any attempt of the atlantic breaking through..this is the best gem run I've seen for a few days regarding the extended outlook with an increasingly warm and settled outlook with plenty of sunshine.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Karl.

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 00z mean turns into another cracker with increasingly warm anticyclonic conditions with dry and sunny weather nationwide and high pressure slowly migrating to the east and enabling hot and humid continental air to drift north into the UK, temps would soar well into the 80's F, even a suggestion of thunderstorm risk too ,especially further south..no downgrade from the mean..if anything, it's an upgrade!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows an increasingly summery outlook for most of the uk except perhaps the far northwest but for most of us it indicates warmer and more settled conditions after the brief cooler blip early in the week..by thurs / fri it will be warming up again as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the south of the uk. It then becomes very warm and increasingly humid as we import a continental air mass northwards into the uk so potential for thunderstorms to break out into week 2 but still with plenty of fine weather around...it's a summery looking mean!

Edited August 7, 2016 by Karl.

[johnholmes]

As usual basing my comments on the 500mb anomaly charts and 2 out of 3 have remained pretty solid in the idea of an upper ridge over/close by the UK in the 6-10 day. This has been the case for a couple of days with only ECMWF not agreeing. So the form horse is the upper ridge idea say from day 4/5 out to day 10 perhaps 11/12 on the basis of the anomaly charts, see the usual links.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Even the EC output has a south of west flow with ridging close to the east so warm and possibly more likely thundery than the other two show?

Indeed the 8-14 NOAA chart is fairly similar to the EC output so maybe ridging giving was after a few days to less settled, still warm/humid and possibly thundery.

A fairly unusual idea for the UK in August perhaps!!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure pulling back into the atlantic during the next few days with Atlantic fronts allowed to brush around the top of the high and southeastwards across the uk and it also looks cooler and fresher than recently with some unseasonably cold nights with upper single digits celsius minima but this is just a blip..by late in the working week, pressure rises again from the southwest with the southern half of the uk becoming fine and warmer. By next weekend most of the uk becomes settled as an anticyclone intensifies over the uk before migrating NE into Scandinavia and week 2 looks generally warm and fine with plenty of sunshine..so a week or so of warm settled weather followed by a changeable end to the run through late August but this is just one possibility. It does look like a summery spell is on the way, it's just unclear how long it will last and how hot it could become but it's  potentially the highlight of the summer heading our way.

[Man With Beard]

And there it is - the Scandinavia High that Glossea picked up a good week ago

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And there it is - the Scandinavia High that Glossea picked up a good week ago

The outlook from around next Friday onwards screams potential for our best spell of this summer.

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

And there it is - the Scandinavia High that Glossea picked up a good week ago

What a performance from the ultimate glosea model!!picked the signal up about 10 days ago and now all the other models follow it!amazing stuff!!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean turns into a beauty, heat, sunshine, thunderstorms.scandi height rises, Azores high, continental weather.  It's got the lot! ..it's worth a Boom

[A.J]

off topic posts removed.....come on gentlemen, you know the score!

[Summer Sun]

GFS heating up for a time mid month

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Gfs 12z run from friday onwards, even after the plume it looks like high pressure with very pleasant late August conditions, however, the Gem 12z has very different ideas about mid August..all I can say is I hope the gfs is nearer.

[The PIT]

Unfortunately FI land does have a plume and some unpleasant hot temperatures hopefully they'll be moderated down to low 20's. We shall see.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS heating up for a time mid month

How far is the hot air coming from on that chart? South Africa maybe The contour lines go on forever!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Good gfs charts lately!! Just what us heat lovers want, a classic August heat wave to put summer back into the word August.  This could be one of the best Augusts in years if it comes off.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is another cracker, first we get increasingly warm anticyclonic conditions by next Fri / Sat  and then as the high drifts further east we get another spanish plume event which would be the second of the summer so far and isn't it great to see those height rises across scandinavia and the Azores high being so friendly. I think the best of this summer is still to come!