Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, skifreak said:

Some charts suggest mountain snow possible in the Scottish Highlands and falling August snow with new lying snow seems to have suddenly become noticeably more common in recent years.

This seems to get mentioned every year...and I'm pretty sure every year someone reminds people that snow on the tops of the mountains in the Highlands is not and has never been particularly unusual in August.

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Karl. said:

It's like I always say, get the cold air in place first..oops wrong season. It would be cool to see snow on the highest mountains next week though and there must be a slight chance of that occurring, there should be slight frosts in the north at least, the other night it fell to -1c 30f in parts of the highlands, next week it would get lower!

If it does will frosty make a comeback? I want the hottest spell possible at the weekend as I've been away for the past week in minehead ( lovely place ) and was fortunate enough to get a bit of a sun tan . Looking at the models it looks to me that gfs has been better in recent months compared to before. What I mean by that is when I first followed this forum the gfs was always laughed off to a certain degree but now seems to have a larger credibility amongst members . 

 

 

[bryan629]

15 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

If it does will frosty make a comeback? I want the hottest spell possible at the weekend as I've been away for the past week in minehead ( lovely place ) and was fortunate enough to get a bit of a sun tan . Looking at the models it looks to me that gfs has been better in recent months compared to before. What I mean by that is when I first followed this forum the gfs was always laughed off to a certain degree but now seems to have a larger credibility amongst members . 

 

 

Hi Mark,   Can i just drop in the chart below highlighting the Gfs skill score against the ECm ... even with the recent Gfs upgrade its not quite cutting the cake compared to the Euro model.. and in some cases has made some proper hoolies...

Im not saying which is the best model to follow... there has been plenty of cross references in the past on here .. everyone to their own i suppose, and besides we always look for cross model agreement anyway.. 

Tell you what though thats a heck of a meander for the jet to take at this time of year .. 

 

 

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

This seems to get mentioned every year...and I'm pretty sure every year someone reminds people that snow on the tops of the mountains in the Highlands is not and has never been particularly unusual in August.

I'm not talking about old snow - which is always present in August, but new snow falling and lying during August. It's occurred more times during the last 10 years than the previous 50 according to Dr Adam Watson who's been monitoring summer snow patches in the Cairngorms since the late 1940s.

Last year was a truly exceptional year for snow patches surviving through the summer, with over 600 still existent in late August.  The lower the elevation patches can persist at the almost exponential increase in available terrain.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to discussing the Model Output please, There is a dedicated thread for snow on the Scottish Mountains, Thanks.

[bluearmy]

the spread on ECM 12z from yesterday revealed a cluster of runs bringing a discreet depression way south next week in a similar way to FIM 12z. The nuances come verification could be quite interesting if this were to happen. Annoyingly, the meteo 24 ECM ens graphs have gone awol. 

 

[Man With Beard]

6 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

If it does will frosty make a comeback? I want the hottest spell possible at the weekend as I've been away for the past week in minehead ( lovely place ) and was fortunate enough to get a bit of a sun tan . Looking at the models it looks to me that gfs has been better in recent months compared to before. What I mean by that is when I first followed this forum the gfs was always laughed off to a certain degree but now seems to have a larger credibility amongst members . 

 

 

Mark I am working on a little research comparing the new GFS and ECM at 500mb specifically for central England, and I'm finding it's not as clear cut as the official N Atlantic stats would suggest (posted above) - when i add up all the total variances from the actual, the GFS ends up very slightly more accurate at T144.

But I bet we're hoping this morning's GFS will be one of those old joke runs, with the trough stuck to our east seemingly forever - well hope is easy to find on its own ensembles this morning where by D10 it is a hopeless outlier - most ensemble runs either pushing the Azores High closer, or ... building High pressure over the top into Scandinavia ... and so the Glossea forecast for mid-August appears on the ensembles at last!

[Snowyowl9]

Not a repeat of august 2006 I hope not,I doubt it but summer still doesn`t want to come just fleeting warm days not good,and dry spells few a very far between this summer.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Edited August 3, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[mb018538]

I'd say enjoy whatever good weather or warmth you are offered (if any!) over Saturday-Monday....as from Tuesday until next weekend we have an Arctic northerly to deal with! Looking very cool with showers, and some frost by night in the north. Let's just pray that trough doesn't get stuck over us for eternity.

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

And back to discussing the Model Output please, There is a dedicated thread for snow on the Scottish Mountains, Thanks.

Why is the thread on the Scottish Mountains seems an unusual place

[mountain shadow]

No real change on the overnight input with a continuation of the unsettled theme but better towards the South and East .

The good news is the GFS FI perhaps beginning to pick up on the Scandi height rises heralding a better end to the month.

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No real change on the overnight input with a continuation of the unsettled theme but better towards the South and East .

The good news is the GFS FI perhaps beginning to pick up on the Scandi height rises heralding a better end to the month.

End to the month? We've still got almost a fortnight until mid-month!

[Troubleatmill]

Just for fun and lift spirits http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3474&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

End to the month? We've still got almost a fortnight until mid-month!

We have, but it's pretty certain that once this northerly sets in by next week, the remnants will still be around by mid month....second half of the month is your best bet!

[Yarmy]

So a very nice hot weekend, followed by a sharp ridging into Greenland and its accompanying cool Northerly next week. After that, perhaps a move (on the GFS op at least) to the easterly continental flow suggested by GLOSEA from mid-month?

Nobody can complain that it's not an interesting period coming up.

[coldcomfort]

After what should be a pleasant weekend for much of the south and another very indifferent one for much of the north, it does now look increasingly likely that much colder air will move down across all areas next week behind a series of frontal troughs. These troughs are going to bring showers and even some longer spells of rain to all areas, but at this stage those closest to the N Sea appear in line for some of the most unpleasant conditions, with a day on the beach in Cromer not looking like a very appetising option later next week! Whether we see a typically winter evolution develop in the coming days, whereby the colder weather and the deepest troughing gets modelled farther and farther east remains to be seen, but looking at FI there's certainly the potential for things to get even worse as we move into mid month - with the final frames looking like something out of a meteorological summer snuff movie!  Probably wise to make use of any warmth we see Sat-Mon, because it looks like being the one thing in very short supply across the following 7-10 days at least! 

Edited August 3, 2016 by coldcomfort

[summer blizzard]

Impressive. Summer to go out on a whimper?

[coldcomfort]

10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Impressive. Summer to go out on a whimper?

No chance whatsoever of verifying on 12th if today were the 3rd Jan, but you just get the feeling that as it's the 3rd of Aug verification is pretty much nailed....

Let's just hope Sept delivers something summery, even if the days are significantly shorter we can still enjoy some heat, especially during the first half of the month.

[stodge]

Morning all

Well, the good news is Karl's fine 72 hours in the south looks pretty much nailed on so some of us will do all right though I'm acutely aware our friends in the north won't.

The story of this morning's models is the tale of the retrogressing HP and a hint of a pattern change of sorts. The weekend's HP doesn't linger over southern areas or move to the east as hot weather fans would hope but retreats swiftly back into mid-Atlantic and tries to link with Greenland heights. Whether it does or doesn't, the trough takes over, the winds turn NW or NNW and we're in a much cooler and changeable regime next week.

GFS 00Z OP for next Thursday:

Not too bad further north and west in all honesty but rain or showers from a little feature near the SE.

GEM at the same time:

Very similar.

ECM at the same time:

Again, not much difference.

The interest this morning is in FI - GFS builds heights strongly over Scandinavia and ECM hints at the same at T+240 but GEM isn't interested. The possibility of Scandinavian heights has been raised by Ian Fergusson and he has access to outputs none of us can see. I now understand the signal as the HP in mid-Atlantic builds NE across to Scandinavia. I don't share his optimism for a fine spell as GFS suggests the trough will be close to or just to the south of the UK so perhaps (for a welcome change) Scotland will do well but the south looks likely to be close to thundery LP.

As ever, more runs are needed.

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

No chance whatsoever of verifying on 12th if today were the 3rd Jan, but you just get the feeling that as it's the 3rd of Aug verification is pretty much nailed....

Let's just hope Sept delivers something summery, even if the days are significantly shorter we can still enjoy some heat, especially during the first half of the month.

Cracker of a potent cold shot (for August) in terms of how potent it could be..

[coldcomfort]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Cracker of a potent cold shot (for August) in terms of how potent it could be..

It is indeed impressive, but so would my favourite team being beaten 10-0 by a massive underdog....i.e it really isn't something I want to see. Those charts do little to dispel my notion that the UK is very much the home of right snyoptics, wrong season and they could end up giving real meaning to your Summer Blizzard handle on here....

[weirpig]

20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Cracker of a potent cold shot (for August) in terms of how potent it could be..

I take it by that chart  if that was to happen we could be struggling to hit the teens 

[B87]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I take it by that chart  if that was to happen we could be struggling to hit the teens 

Looks to be around 6-7c below average for here, so looking at 17-18c max!

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, B87 said:

Looks to be around 6-7c below average for here, so looking at 17-18c max!

yes quite a bit below average,  here the average is around 21  so id be looking around 13-14   

[coldcomfort]

8 minutes ago, B87 said:

Looks to be around 6-7c below average for here, so looking at 17-18c max!

Yes, but under a heavy shower, especially a prolonged one I think the temps could easily get dragged down by 4 or 5 degrees. That said, there would still be some parts like the south coasts of England and Wales that wouldn't fair to badly out of this setup, especially the further west you go and here it could still feel pleasant in any lengthy spells of sunshine, but these really aren't the kind of synoptics most of want to see as we start to close out this very indifferent summer!