Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Singularity]

I can't get the quote function to quote the right post... But in reply to MWB's question, I am outlining the difference between GFS and ECM - but I don't know yet which one has it right. The actual situation in two days time will provide the all important information

[Frosty.]

I'm sensing something of a middle ground scenario next week, starting warm and humid in the s / se then becoming cooler and fresher from the north through the middle of next week before temps start to recover again towards the end of next week as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest across southern uk.

Edited August 4, 2016 by Karl.

[kumquat]

A perhaps somewhat rarer NE/SW divide at day 8 (according to GFS 18z)

Hurricane Earl has blown up, who knows the consequences?

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z shows high pressure still influencing the south by next midweek, not bad at all further south, it does become cooler and fresher but nothing dramatic. The very cool plunge hardly even reaches the far north!

Edited August 4, 2016 by Karl.

[northwestsnow]

Thats a decent ECM this morning! Very brief northerly before the azores high ridges back in, OK nothing overly hot or warm but after a lovely 2 or 3 days and a cooler few days its back to high pressure in control-

 

[Snowyowl9]

Not too much rain after today maybe depends on ECM vs UKMO quite a difference really.

I`ll wait till tomorrow`s models see what happens,clear today`s showers.

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a decent ECM this morning! Very brief northerly before the azores high ridges back in, OK nothing overly hot or warm but after a lovely 2 or 3 days and a cooler few days its back to high pressure in control-

 

Yes it's a decent Ecm 00z for the south of the uk, more unsettled further n / nw but even the north settles down towards the end. The Northerly is only a glancing blow further south with a nice recovery later as the Azores high builds in again. This weekend becomes warm and fine in southern uk, 22/24c on saturday with broken clouds and sunny spells, sunday looks warmest, very warm mid to upper 20's c further s / se, it still looks good in the south next Monday. Scotland really feels the cool northerly next week, more than the ukmo shows but it doesn't last long before its cut off by the ridge later next week onwards.

Edited August 4, 2016 by Karl.

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a decent ECM this morning! Very brief northerly before the azores high ridges back in, OK nothing overly hot or warm but after a lovely 2 or 3 days and a cooler few days its back to high pressure in control-

 

Yes and unexpected too. Hopefully not an outlier in its ensembles. 

[Man With Beard]

Op runs for T144 (Wednesday). Spot the odd one out! 

      

Brief northerly on Thursday for all - SW areas not particularly affected

But High Pressure is back by Friday and the northerly is cut off. A swift recovery of temps would follow in the days after due to the continuing strength of the sun, I'd think, though the ECM/GFS actually leave a small gate open for the Atlantic within a couple of days after these charts?

    

 

[coldcomfort]

Well rather mixed emotions this morning, but without question the big positive is a less cold and significantly drier outlook, especially for the west where it was so wet earlier this week. On the negative side the weekend looks rather less promising now, with a good deal of cloud likely across many areas on both Saturday and Sunday, a fear I alluded too earlier this week. Still on balance I'd take this mornings offerings, at least it will be pleasantly warm this weekend for the majority of us.

Edited August 4, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a decent ECM this morning! Very brief northerly before the azores high ridges back in, OK nothing overly hot or warm but after a lovely 2 or 3 days and a cooler few days its back to high pressure in control-

 

This weekend looks lovely the further south you are according to the Ecm 00z with increasing warmth and humidity, in any sunshine temps should respond with mid to upper 20's c on sunday and monday in the s / se. For southern & southeast England it's a cracker!

[stodge]

Morning all

Just a quick comment or two from me this morning as time precludes a more detailed analysis.

A significant step back from the more apocalyptic charts being posted yesterday. All the OP models keep the HP much closer to the SW than seemed likely yesterday and the significant eastward re-positioning modifies and then cuts off the cool N'ly flow. There will be a cooler spell early next week, no question, and the medium to long term outlook remains unclear. From a traditional North-South split to the possibility of pressure rises to the east or north-east, plenty of options on the table.

More runs..,you know the rest.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Apologies for wrong quote but I feel the models have really moderated the cool snap next week, just like in winter whenever a Northerly is shown, it downgrades and the same is happening now. At this rate, the south will hardly notice it.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z continues to blow away the northerly at an increasing speed - just 2 or 3 cooler days midweek now before this. It may end up a really good week if you like sun but don't like it too hot, no deluge of rain around that I can see.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows a fine warm weekend coming up across most of England and Wales, unsettled and cooler further n / nw and then a glancing blow northerly next week from monday with temps briefly dipping below average and some rain and showers but with sunny spells too but some unseasonably cold nights with slight frosts in rural northern areas before the cool supply is cut off by a ridge of high pressure building NE into the uk..and from there, it just gets better and better during low res which shows the summer we have been missing this year, scandi height rises, link up with the Azores high bringing sustained beautiful warm / very warm and anticyclonic nationwide bliss!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Karl.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a glancing cooler NWly flow for a time next week but it's soon shunted away by high pressure building in from the southwest from later next week onwards and further ahead the Azores high is increasingly influential across the UK with largely settled and warm weather across at least the southern half of the uk..August would turn into a good month further south if anything like this occurs.

Edited August 4, 2016 by Karl.

[snowy weather]

On 30/07/2016 at 11:42, Gael_Force said:

I see your question has been well answered by others and a great tutorial as well. TY all.

Yes thank you everyone, much appreciated

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows some cooler winds and air early next week high pressure is tantalizingly close to our west and could start to move east cutting off the cooler flow of air by around mid week

By day it shouldn't be too bad if the sun is out but overnights will be a lot cooler than of late with single figures for some rural areas and possibly even in some of our towns and cities in the far north

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z shows a brief Northerly incursion next week, the main thrust is down the north sea but cool air spreads south with a mix of sunshine and showers and some unseasonably chilly nights where skies clear but the cool air supply is cut off by high pressure slowly ridging in from the southwest later next week when it becomes fine again with temperatures recovering considerably towards the end of the run when most of the uk looks fine and warm. In the meantime, this weekend looks fine and warm across England and Wales with well broken clouds and long sunny spells but westerly winds strengthen on sunday which takes the edge off the warmth but the south / southeast could reach 24 / 25c on both sat / sun. Scotland and N.Ireland look more unsettled, cooler and also very windy on sunday..but as i said, a significant improvement later in the run.

[Frosty.]

Another superb Gfs 12z in low res, again thanks to scandi height rises and a really blocked pattern with no Atlantic filth possible, I hope the gfs is on to something here. High res shows a fine warm few days ahead further south but sunday brings strengthening westerly winds associated with a depression which pushes wet and windy weather across northern Britain late saturday and overnight. Next week shows an increasingly watered down Northerly incursion but even so, temps drop below average with some rain and showers around and chilly nights with mid to upper single digits celsius but high pressure cuts off the cool air with a warm and fine end to the next working week, a bit of a less warm / less settled blip at the end of next week before things become as peachy as the earlier 6z..it's what we have been missing through this patchy summer so far.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows next weeks cooler incursion becoming shorter and weaker, it's being shunted further east, it does become cooler for a while next week but not that cool. Pressure soon starts to rise from the southwest during the second half of next week and its really all about the Azores high (ridge) building in and then rebuilding in with increasingly fine and warm weather, the run ends very encouragingly.

[phil nw.]

Yes Karl according to the GEFs apart from a few showers the next couple of weeks; although starting rather cool,look quite decent as we head towards mid-month.

Something of a change in the pattern is on the way with a transient northerly toppling into a +ve height anomalies across N.Europe/UK in week 2.

Day 5 and 10 charts

if that verifies we could see a nationwide Summery spell,a rare thing this Summer.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Karl according to the GEFs apart from a few showers the next couple of weeks; although starting rather cool,look quite decent as we head towards mid-month.

Something of a change in the pattern is on the way with a transient northerly toppling into a +ve height anomalies across N.Europe/UK in week 2.

Day 5 and 10 charts

if that verifies we could see a nationwide Summery spell,a rare thing this Summer.

Fingers crossed Phil, encouraging signs for the rest of this summer today.

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Karl according to the GEFs apart from a few showers the next couple of weeks; although starting rather cool,look quite decent as we head towards mid-month.

Something of a change in the pattern is on the way with a transient northerly toppling into a +ve height anomalies across N.Europe/UK in week 2.

Day 5 and 10 charts

if that verifies we could see a nationwide Summery spell,a rare thing this Summer.

All over the place though, isn't it? For next week, the ECM alone has progressed from heatwave, to arctic blast, to mid-Atlantic toppler, to UK High and back to a high pretty similar to what we're going to get this weekend! 

I'm wondering now if the Atlantic is actually going to flatten the pattern further and we'll end up back to square one within 10 days with an encroaching trough to the NW. Let's hope not - let's hope the models have final settled on the right outcome as it would be very welcome further north I suspect.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's GEFS 12z mean shows a short-lived cooler incursion from the nw / n next week but it's quickly shunted away to the NE by a ridge of high pressure building in from the southwest during the second half of next week and really from then on its good news as the Azores high becomes increasingly influential with largely settled and warm / very warm weather with temps into the mid to upper 20's celsius across the southern half of the uk.., looks warm and settled in the north too with low 20's c. As mean charts go, these  look very encouraging through mid to late August.