Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

Complicated. Thursday - how much will be left on the trough coming from the SW? Saturday - will yet another low stall to the west, or will it join forces with low pressure to the east? After a sunny and warm/hot start to the week, still no way of confidentiality predicting the end of the week yet. But chances still there for dry and warm all week, especially away from the SW.

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

especially away from the SW.

Sorry, but I'm not seeing that anywhere. The SW is going to bask in a few days of sunny and warm weather.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Sorry, but I'm not seeing that anywhere. The SW is going to bask in a few days of sunny and warm weather.

I think all MWB is suggesting is that he front will effect the SW by mid week.

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Sorry, but I'm not seeing that anywhere. The SW is going to bask in a few days of sunny and warm weather.

I wouldn't discount it, but as all the Atlantic attacks seem to be coming from the SW, I'd have thought you were most at risk of getting wet out of everyone. If it doesn't get to you, it'll be sweltering down there, I've got a little imaginary wager on Croyde reaching 30C on Tuesday or Wednesday

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I wouldn't discount it, but as all the Atlantic attacks seem to be coming from the SW, I'd have thought you were most at risk of getting wet out of everyone. If it doesn't get to you, it'll be sweltering down there, I've got a little imaginary wager on Croyde reaching 30C on Tuesday or Wednesday

Should be close the ecm is going for 22C.

[knocker]

After a fine start to the week the ecm has the front slowly traversing the UK from 12z Wednesday but not clearing the NE until late Thursday. But Friday the next low arrives on the scene tracking NE bringing some wet weather but clears quite quickly and by Sunday 00z it's over Oslo with transient ridge building behind it.

Be afraid, be very afraid

[Matthew.]

A week without the Jetstream

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

A week without the Jetstream

Glad to see it take a French vacation (though the Brit tourists might not) - desperately needing rain now.

An edit for @stainesbloke

The taps turned off from the middle of June.

Edited August 13, 2016 by Nouska

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Should be close the ecm is going for 22C.

From the various posts on the ECM maximums recently, I have come to the conclusion that they are a waste of bandwidth. Full day sun, easterly wind, it will be much much higher than that.

[knocker]

Tonight's det. runs are rather indicative of what the anomalies are showing.

A deep depression over the Pole and trough in the eastern Atlantic with HP over eastern Europe.The orientation of the latter is doing us no favours as it ridges west over N. Scandinavia allowing a low pressure area to south of same. Thus everything is primed for surface lows to track along a NE quadrant over the UK. Temps around average taking the UK as whole.

In the later period the ridging HP retreats east although there is no certainty on how far setting up a not unfamiliar pattern of LP to the NW and HP to the SW with awesterly upper floe which tends to favour a N.S split vis the UK. As always this doesn't prclude some ridging from the Azores in the favourable phase.

 

Edited August 13, 2016 by knocker

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

Glad to see it take a French vacation (though the Brit tourists might not) - desperately needing rain now.

Could do with something thundery here, been a while! Has France dried out now since very wet June?

[knocker]

Today

High Pressure steadily building across the UK from the SW. Dry apart from northern Scotland with temps ranging from 12C to 22C

This morning's GFS has the HP centred in the North Sea by 00z Tuesday with the UK in a light SE/S flow with temps possible reaching 26C in a few spots in the far south.on Tuesday. The encroaching Atlantic front is 300Km to the west.

The HP proceeds to retreat NE and the front east to arrive over the south west by 06z Weds, It progresses slowly and is across central England by Thursday 00z.As this front slowly dissipates and finally clears east the next depression tracks NE and it's associated fronts arrive Friday to bring more showery outbreaks for the weekend. The beginning of next week is a horror story but I think the evolution from the end of the week best treated with extreme caution at the moment as very unlikely to verify.

Forgot the temps for Weds and Thursday. Possible 26C in the south Weds and only just 24C in Chichester on Thursday.

I have to say Sidney was gobsmacked when he saw the chart for next Tuesday

[knocker]

The ecm has next weekends low running up the Channel.

[Man With Beard]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

 

And I can't see that the ECM is very different. If anything, the timing of that front to the SW, so elusive this week, is slightly more progressive this morning and slightly more active, so charts showing the front into the SW by Wednesday morning, still a good warm or hot Wednesday for most, but Thursday showing as a bit more messy today and that's likely to impact on the temperatures a bit. Still feels like a "nowcast" is coming up for the latter part of the week.

The second low to the south west now is showing as a direct hit for the weekend. I'd say the track is still to be decided, but all one can say is, if the ECM verifies as is, the weekend could be a total washout and blowout. 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Snowyowl9]

Plenty of thunderstorm chance from later wednesday now,with a 30c possible IMO in the south.

http://.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[phil nw.]

Mid-week sees the approaching trough slowing and then gradually weakening as it comes east.

Looking at a couple of images-GFS rainfall and the t84fax

It currently looks like parts of Wales and the south west see the bulk of the rain before it starts to die away.Looking at the ens many parts further east see very little.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Phil, As you say Wales/South looks to take the brunt of the rain as shown here by the Net/wx - MR Model, With enough Cape values to trigger Thunderstorms for some and max temps of 27/28c possible in the far South. Detail subject to change at this range re - storm potential..

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The upper air for 18z Weds

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Phil, As you say Wales/South looks to take the brunt of the rain as shown here by the Net/wx - MR Model, With enough Cape values to trigger Thunderstorms for some and max temps of 27/28c possible in the far South. Detail subject to change at this range re - storm potential..

 

East coast looks dreadfully cold, actually

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

East coast looks dreadfully cold, actually

Yes much cooler for the N/E Coast compaired to the South for Wednesday. A real contrast indeed..

Edited August 14, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[The PIT]

The downgrade of the warm spell continues steadily. Wednesdays seems the best. Maybe some notable cool nights away from the south of the country as well this coming week. Next weekend since it's my log weekend is looking rather unsettled now. Thankfully FI land so it could well the same way this hot spell went.

[summer blizzard]

By Friday the 12z has the Atlantic back in full control..

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

By Friday the 12z has the Atlantic back in full control..

The annoying thing is that, other than that low (which no matter where it comes from WILL end up over the UK), the Atlantic is still fairly weak. I wonder if over future runs the presence of high pressure in the Scandi area will help fend off or send these lows south.

[damianslaw]

Interesting synoptics, the kind that would have cold snow lovers drooling in winter.. as it is, a break off azores ridge moving NE through the country and becoming inflated by developing heights over west russia - outcome heights firmly ensconced over scandinavia with a long draw easterly. Question how quickly will the atlantic trough encroach upon SW reaches. Current charts suggest not fully until Thursday, meaning a few dry warm days ahead for many, very warm in some central/western/southern parts - south midlands a prime spot for high 20's, but 30 degrees looks unlikely with the flow from Germany/Netherlands as opposed to France/Alpine regions.

Forecasting events beyond Thursday remains difficult, the trough could anchor itself in a more southerly position, brushing extreme SW/S parts only, and keeping most places dry, it could advance further NE, and envelop much of the country by the weekend, resulting in a miserable wet damp and quite cool affair. 

Will be good to see who has the upper hand, the scandi ridge or the atlantic trough. The atlantic does look very sluggish, however, this factor doesn't bode well if the trough does gain the upper hand, as it will most likely stall over the UK locked in place by the ridge to the NE, and thus be forced to move SE into Europe, only for the next feature to settle itself over the country.

Eastern coastal parts with an onshore wind will be rather disapointing given the orientation of the wind, if it backs more the SE, conditions should be rather better. Far north of Scotland could be a good place to be over the coming week, especially sheltered highland glens, and the Moray Firth area - something that is more likely in late spring /early summer, than late summer - the period we are now entering.

Edited August 14, 2016 by damianslaw

[knocker]

The Saturday and Monday depressions according to the ecm. I confess I remain puzzled as to why people are still talking about the Scandinavian ridge as I don't see one. Plus there is a 100kt jet stream just the south of the UK next weekend.

Edited August 14, 2016 by knocker