Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[mb018538]

Plume-tastic ECM 12z, hopefully this will be a nice blast of warmth/heat before things probably break down. Mid twenties on the way perhaps

[Summer Sun]

The high holds on well into next week on this evenings ECM high 20's possible for the south later next week for a time

[joggs]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The high holds on well into next week on this evenings ECM high 20's possible for the south later next week for a time

Really hope this comes to fruition. 

[Summer Sun]

The main message to take from tonight's ECM is a breakdown from the Atlantic is delayed till D10

[Scorcher]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Plume-tastic ECM 12z, hopefully this will be a nice blast of warmth/heat before things probably break down. Mid twenties on the way perhaps

The breakdown is still right at the end of the run too- it keeps being pushed back which could mean we can squeeze out even more warmth over the next 10 days or so. It looks a fairly promising outlook with the trough in the right place to allow plenty of warmth for all.

[Singularity]

Each and every run, I wonder if the trough might stall out west of the UK. Today we've seen one out of three GFS runs achieve this, while ECM remains resolute in bringing it on over, albeit not quite as fast as once looked to be the case.

Of the 12z det. runs, GEM is the one showing a stall, though like the GFS 06z we then see a UK/Scandi ridge rather than European one. This belies the fact that the stalling low has so far only been achieved via a split of the jet (as far as the det. runs go, anyway), which means you still have support for a shallow low to slide into Europe, causing the plume of heat to quickly destabilise. It's an impressive plume for the western Med. (850's into the mid-20's, more like something out of July or August) so there would be some mighty bangs down there I'm sure.

We are once again looking at a GEFS mean which is keen on tanking the GLAAM big-time.

The past few times, the GLAAM has instead stayed in the positive zone. On the most recent occasion this meant that the GWO tracked through phases 8-0-5 as opposed to a GEFS projection at one week's range that went all the way down into phase 2. That's a huge difference in the distribution of momentum, and a similar adjustment this time around would in theory see the idea of a UK trough in the 10-16 day range banished in favour of high pressure quickly recovering the situation after the breakdown of the plume. For I moment as it was rolling out (around the +252 hour mark) I did wonder if the 12z would manage that, but alas, no.

So the big question is, will the atmosphere take up the La-Nina base state on this occasion, or is GEFS once again being far too keen to make the transition? Tamara has in the recent past outlined the critical nature of the transition time with respect to summer weather prospects. I for one hope to see the GLAAM holding up positive for another month or so, as much as that comes up against ever-increasing odds!

[Frosty.]

564 dam is the holy grail in a british summer just as much as 510 dam is in winter. The Ecm 12z shows a lovely plume of heat extending from the south towards the end of next week with temps potentially close to 30c 86f across southern England and widely mid to high 20's c for most of England and Wales for a time. Hopefully this will verify and even upgrade in duration and then repeat frequently throughout the summer. I think it has a good chance next week since the latest met office update mentioned increasingly very warm and humid conditions in the 6-15 day range..fingers crossed!

Edited May 31, 2016 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

564 dam is the holy grail in a british summer just as much as 510 dam is in winter. The Ecm 12z shows a lovely plume of heat extending from the south towards the end of next week with temps potentially close to 30c 86f across southern England and widely mid to high 20's c for most of England and Wales for a time. Hopefully this will verify and even upgrade in duration and then repeat frequently throughout the summer. I think it has a good chance next week since the latest met office update mentioned increasingly very warm and humid conditions in the 6-15 day range..fingers crossed!

Indeed Frosty, if the ECM holds back the Atlantic for one more day (until beyond D10) it may even be the first shot of the year at the magical 90F mark - a feat achieved on a couple of GEFS members tonight. Most output, however, seems keen to bring the Atlantic in quickly between D9 and D11. Too far out to call yet but, as I said last night, what happens in the models over the next couple of days may give us some clues for the coming summer - which has the upper hand, the Atlantic jet or Azores ridging?

[Matthew.]

Yes the bbc are increasing temperatures for next week also. It would be very nice to see temperatures hit 30c this early on!

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

which has the upper hand, the Atlantic jet or Azores ridging?

Please let it be the Azores ridging, we deserve a good summer!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Excellent charts i hope this turns into a full blown heatwave and hitting 30C before the summer solstice is something that rarely happens these days.  Hope its a sign of things to come

[Matthew.]

I love the excitement of this forum when the bringers of good tidings arrive. British summers certainly gets the nerves going!

Edited May 31, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I love the excitement of this forum when the bringers of good tidings arrive. British summers certainly gets the nerves going!

there aren't any good tidings just possibilities if the situation is the same in 7 days time then I might join in with the sentiment until then I will watch with caution and I suggest others don't get too carried away either

[Iceaxecrampon]

Out of season as ever but as a footnote if it was winter look at those belting streamers for the SE.

[joggs]

28 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Out of season as ever but as a footnote if it was winter look at those belting streamers for the SE.

Could we see the charts pls?

[mb018538]

Perhaps something of a slight downgrade across the board this morning - still some warmth hitting the south, but nowhere near as nice as some of the charts from last night! After this it certainly does appear that we could be in for a pretty unsettled spell of weather, with a classic negative NAO setting up. Hoping as we get a bit closer in time that the trough stalls a bit further west and pumps that heat up.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUN 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A NE flow between Low pressure over the Europe and High pressure to the NW of the UK will slacken slowly over the next few days with the weakening troughs over Central and Southern England clearing very slowly away South tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the NW at first and the SE later. Occasionally warm.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week or so as the pattern of Low pressure over Europe and High pressure to the North continues for a while longer. Then through the second week a slow but subtle change in both strength and flow pattern develops as it moves into a more traditional West to East or SW to NE direction over or just to the South of the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows slow changes over the two week period most of these in the second week as Week 1 continues to see some showery outbreaks of rain moving in from the East as pressure remains lower over Europe. A lot of dry and warm weather is expected in between though and with light winds it could feel arm and humid. In the second week pressure rises over Europe and a more traditional pattern gradually develops. This does mean that for the UK cloud and rain will spill in off the Atlantic at times in association with Low pressure up to the North and NW of the UK with the driest and warmest weather returning to more Southern and Eastern areas where any rainfall becomes much less common.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows similar conditions to the Operational Run in Week 1 but in Week 2 shows an alternative path to more normal pressure patterns with the Azores High slowly coming into play as it ridges either North through the Atlantic or better still NE towards the UK at least for a time. This doesn't translate to fine weather for too long on this run though as cool and showery Low pressure near NE Britain towards the end of the run would ensure cool and bright weather with showers in the North and East the most likely weather type to close the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The main theme of the GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning reflects a confident path towards the Northern blocking High pressure finally having given way to lower pressure their by then and with High pressure down to the SW winds from a West or NW direction has a lot of support with some rain at times, chiefly but not exclusively over the North and West with the best conditions probably most likely in the South and SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack pressure being maintained over the UK for the rest of the week and weekend and with somewhat warmer air beginning to develop under brighter skies later plus instability aloft some thundery showers look possible at the weekend in the South. Then as we move into next week we have to watch for Low pressure to edge in from the SW more organised thundery rain looks set to move slowly NE across the South and West over Monday..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the pattern of slack pressure conditions developing over the UK in the next few days as the Low pressure over Europe fills up. Some old troughs ambling around still bring the risk of some showers, perhaps thundery at the weekend but with a lot of dry, eventually bright and warm weather too as we approach the start of next week

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows very slow changes over the next 10 days but it is extremely slow progress. The weather will change even more slowly under this patterning with a lot of dry and fine weather under rather warm and humid weather for much of the time. Low pressure to the SW is shown equally slow to move in breaking up into another thundery zone lying to the South and west of the UK late in the run with pressure still quite high to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a High pressure ridge edging South over the UK at the weekend slowly displacing the slack pressure zone across the UK currently. Things then warm up next week especially in the South with Low pressure inching North over the eastern Atlantic bringing warm winds up from the South with any rain or thundery showers only affecting the far West or NW by this time next week.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the Low pressure over Europe finally weakening towards the weekend with extremely slack conditions likely across the UK for several days and with brighter and warmer conditions sparking off some thundery showers in the South at the weekend. Then it's all about the progress of showery Low pressure in the Atlantic and how much and what speed it feeds more unsettled conditions into the UK from the SW towards midweek, ending the week near or over the UK with cooler and showery weather for all by then.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night follows this morning's operational run with Atlantic Low pressure having filtered into the UK from the West and SW over previous days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems to be a slow change gaining more support between the models over recent days towards pressure rising over Europe and falling to the West and NW with winds finally veering towards a warm Southerly next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.4 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 95.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 84.2 pts and GFS at 82.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 52.3 pts to 46.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 31.5 pts to 29.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is currently a lot of contrast from place to place across the UK and this will continue over the next few days as all models support only slow changes in the next 3-4 days. These changes revolve around the release of Low pressure from Europe towards High pressure later next week. This process begins as High pressure also begins to build down from the North at the weekend with several days of fine and increasingly warm conditions as the cool NE flow is lost to warmer winds from the SE or South. Then next week with higher pressure over Europe and Low pressure drifting slowly North or NE towards the west of the UK it could become very warm and humid in places and as that low to the west pushes troughs towards us from the SW it could feed some thundery rain and storms up from the SW at some stage by midweek. The pattern thereafter appears quite mixed too between the output but using the GFS Clusters as an example it would appear that we could well slip into a more traditional pattern of Low pressure to the NW and Higher pressure to the SE with SW winds bringing rain at times to the North and West while the South and East see the best of prolonged dry and warm periods between intermittent rain. This theme is not a done deal yet though and there is still some stubborn resistance from some runs that keep pressure quite High north of the UK which as ECM shows keeps the Low pressure coming in from the SW next week closer into the UK and keeps showery conditions going for all. However, in my opinion the charts could look an awful lot worse with all areas seeing some good weather over the next few weeks when it will also be reasonably warm. All areas will likely see at least some showery rainfall over the next few weeks too perhaps most likely across the South to begin with and then the North later..all good seasonal growing weather which will keep the lawnmowers among other gardening tools and related tasks necessary.

Next Update Thursday Jun 2nd 2016 from 09:00 

Edited June 1, 2016 by Gibby

[Faronstream]

Are they are chances of real warmth in June? Like 32-35 celsius for a week or so, i can't see it in any models right now.

[summer blizzard]

Consensus now seems to be that this relatively settled spell ends next Thursday. Both GFS and uro have the trough making it more or less over the UK. 

[joggs]

16 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Consensus now seems to be that this relatively settled spell ends next Thursday. Both GFS and uro have the trough making it more or less over the UK. 

That would suggest sunshine and showers/storms set up.Fairly warm in light winds?.

I can handle that.

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Perhaps something of a slight downgrade across the board this morning - still some warmth hitting the south, but nowhere near as nice as some of the charts from last night! After this it certainly does appear that we could be in for a pretty unsettled spell of weather, with a classic negative NAO setting up. Hoping as we get a bit closer in time that the trough stalls a bit further west and pumps that heat up.

I don't really see the downgrades you speak of. Yes the ECM is not showing tye day or 2 of real heat it showed last night but most of the run yesterday was warm to very warm as opposed to hot anyway. It still looks very good for most into next week.

The GFS is possibly even an upgrade on its runs from yesterday. There is still the potential for heat to develop later on next week- I think as always it's important not to read too much into individual op runs. The details will change again later on.

[StormChaseUK]

Yes the 00z did blip back again to changeable conditions, but the 06z is a nice treat  from sunday onwards, warmth closeby, air slightly unstable at times. Looks good

[mb018538]

I was merely remarking that the 12z yesterday showed temps around 29/30c due to the plume being a bit deeper. That's not to say that it won't be warm - I'm certain a few 25/26c will show up if the output verifies. More importantly for weather watchers on here, it looks like a good chance there will be some beefy thunderstorms kicked up as low pressure edges in. Something to float everyone's boat! The 6z isn't bad in the mid term either.

[wishingforsnow]

This is reminding me of June 2014 where it was uncertain what way the month would go; shortly before the month started, low pressure was forecast to be dominant after the first few days, it was all doom and gloom with people lamenting that the previous hot spell in early/mid May 2014 would be 'it' for hot and sunny weather and that summer would be horrible from then on but later on the High Pressure set up close by and remained that way keeping the Atlantic influence more minimal. I remember forecasters describing June 2014 as a 'sun or bust' scenario and that's what we're looking at now. Still uncertain but from what I can gather there's either the possibility of the European High Pressure or a trough with low pressure becoming more influential over the UK according to the last EC32 model.  Don't put too much though into Matt Hugo's tweet from Monday as the EC32 is constantly changing and the trough and low pressure dominance is only a reflection of one potential output for June - lets not forget that the extremely hot outcome for the last week of May he was previously backing did not come off. Hopefully the first option will win out. My feeling is that June and the summer in general will be a mixed month/season of some warm/hot periods mixed with some cooler/unsettled periods with not one weather type being particularly dominant (like 2014). BBC and Met Office seem to think the same thing.  

Regarding the GLAAM, I think it will track progressively negative by the end of the summer regarding the developing La Nina. In my opinion the 'ENSO neutral' period between Nino and Nina has to be at least a month, if not two. So my feeling that the better summer weather will be coming in June and July still stands   Remember we also don't currently have a strong jetstream (compared to its strength during the past Winter) and we aren't going through a solar minimum period  which are two factors that should spare us from a 2007/2012 style outcome in any case.

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Frosty.]

There is lots to like about the Gfs 6z op run, especially the temperatures which rise nicely through the coming weekend and this trend continues throughout next week, widely into the low 20's c and nearer the mid 20's celsius for most of next week. This weekend looks like becoming largely fine across at least central and northern uk as high pressure ridges down from the north but there is a risk of heavy, slow moving and thundery showers breaking out across the south and during next week it becomes more generally unsettled from the southwest with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms with some intense downpours but there would be plenty of sunshine around in between times and as I said at the beginning, the whole of the UK becomes bathed in much warmer and more humid continental sourced air so it will be good riddance to mid teens celsius and hello to low / mid 20's c, certainly feeling like summer if anything like the 6z verifies..the good news is the met office update sounds increasingly warm for all areas next week, becoming very warm and more humid with sunshine and heavy showers / T- storms, most settled (least unsettled) across the NE of the uk ..Bring on the warmth!

Edited June 1, 2016 by Frosty.