Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

On 5/31/2016 at 13:26, Man With Beard said:

An interesting turn-up in the GEFS 06Z. The mean is fairly reflective:

By D9, the trough is now showing as another staller, allowing warm/hot weather to become established from the south. 15 out of 21 members are variants on this theme.

The trough does make some headway on the mean by D11, but again, 15 members still do not have a trough over the UK by this time and the flatter pattern on the mean chart simply reflects the multitude of options, including troughing splitting and going south. 

I'm really scratching my head over my June CET punt now, hopefully the 12Zs will be more conclusive!

Oh dear, I was going to alter my June CET punt last night but forgot, and now I really wish I had. A definite move towards trough domination this morning. By D8 (yesterday's D9), heights just about holding on, but by D9 the trough has broken through

Whereas yesterday's 06Z ens only had a few with a UK trough at this timeframe, today 16 out of 21 see the UK under some sort of trough influence. Still some way off though, but mid-June isn't particular promising at the moment.. 

[wishingforsnow]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh dear, I was going to alter my June CET punt last night but forgot, and now I really wish I had. A definite move towards trough domination this morning. By D8 (yesterday's D9), heights just about holding on, but by D9 the trough has broken through

Whereas yesterday's 06Z ens only had a few with a UK trough at this timeframe, today 16 out of 21 see the UK under some sort of trough influence. Still some way off though, but mid-June isn't particular promising at the moment.. 

I don't see anything particularly bad in that chart, it just looks more mixed than completely settled and warm periods mixed in with more unsettled periods. Not a completely cool washout in my opinion as the High Pressure still lying over Westen Europe should give an occasional influence over the weather. More changeable though. Also a lot can change out to D10. Hopefully for the better and not the worse.

Edited June 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

well gfs12z looks rather toasty and rather a good ingredients for some humid and thundery type weather especially for the south.

spain and north africa could well get some pretty extreme temps.

mini heatwave or sustained heat id punt for the latter.

can certainly see a above average june temps and pretty spectacular storms possible...... will the ecm and gefs follow suit.

low solar activity el nino switch to la nina although some way to go and greenland block now swapping for scandi british isle combination block with sustained warmth from the southerly direction this must be why the met office are bullish in there warming up forecast.

fingers crossed summers coming.

or will the low out to our west settle over the uk ????

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[wishingforsnow]

17 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

well gfs12z looks rather toasty and rather a good ingredients for some humid and thundery type weather especially for the south.

spain and north africa could well get some pretty extreme temps.

mini heatwave or sustained heat id punt for the latter.

can certainly see a above average june temps and pretty spectacular storms possible...... will the ecm and gefs follow suit.

low solar activity el nino switch to la nina although some way to go and greenland block now swapping for scandi british isle combination block with sustained warmth from the southerly direction this must be why the met office are bullish in there warming up forecast.

fingers crossed summers coming.

or will the low out to our west settle over the uk ????

 

I agree, I think that June and the summer in general could more or less follow a pattern of mixed weather with generally above average temperatures. I've personally found that since the end of Winter and mid March, periods of wet and windy Atlantic dominated weather have shortened in length compared to lasting for weeks and months as they did this past Winter.

Which is good for the current period; in that during the past Winter there was the Jet Stream at its strongest. Posted this in the Summer 2016 thread but back in the late 00s - early 10s there was a pattern where the Jet Stream would be weaker and track North more often during Winter and Spring and become stronger and mostly track South during the Summer. 

Edited June 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Convective]

12Z GFS showing more flattening of the low to the west as blocking tries to keep a firm hold. Meanwhile, this pulls more of a vertical axis on the potential 'plume'

Edited June 1, 2016 by Convective

[MR EXTREMES]

8 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I agree, I think that June and the summer in general could more or less follow a pattern of mixed weather with generally above average temperatures. I've personally found that since the end of Winter and mid March, periods of wet and windy Atlantic dominated weather have shortened in length compared to lasting for weeks and months as they did this past Winter.

Which is good, in that during then there was the Jet Stream at its strongest. Posted this in the Summer 2016 thread but back in the late 00s - early 10s there was a pattern where the Jet Stream would be weaker during Winter and Spring and stronger during the Summer. 

absolutely agree and the ukmo not bad either.

but dont look at the gem model in fi would shatter the bbq crew dreams  

Edited June 1, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[William Grimsley]

I'd say mid level thunderstorms are also favoured in this setup especially overnight for southern coastal counties as well as inland, 

Edited June 1, 2016 by ajpoolshark
removed the off topic part

[Summer Sun]

The beebs longer range forecast last night hinted at a more humid and thundery spell of weather into next week and this afternoons GFS seems to be following this

[Frosty.]

I'm pleased to say the current cool, northerly cloud fest across most of the UK away from the NW will soon be a thing of the past as it is set to turn much warmer everywhere with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius next week according to the Gfs 12z which is actually warmer than the 6z and drier too, bar a few showers dotted around with higher pressure becoming centred to the east bringing a lot of fine weather until almost the end of next week..very decent early summer temperatures looks to be on the way,  similar to what the northwest corner of the BI is enjoying at the moment...let's hope this run is near the truth for next week!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

@Frosty., we don't want drier we want a slack area of low pressure sat just to the SW with huge amounts of MLCAPE erupting out of NW France to go bang over my head!

Well, if the met office update is right, we will get what you say but I'm just pleased to see the current cool Northerly flow affecting the south and east of the uk will soon be replaced by much warmer weather for all which should please most on here..

[phil nw.]

It's good to see signs of a general warm up on the 12z GFS after the last couple of days of dull and quite chilly weather for much of central and eastern England.Indeed many parts further north and west have had some quite decent sunshine and warmth so as the easterly cyclonic feed dies away by the end of the week we are looking at much sunnier and warmer weather for many of us.

 

Low 20's max's but look out for some showers here and there further south.

UKMO also showing the slow moving low out west and the warmer surge off the continental ridge.

  

so something more Summery from later in the week -not completely dry but certainly feeling warmer with more sunshine about from the weekend as the pattern starts to change.

 

[Summer Sun]

Up-to Wednesday it doesn't look too bad warmer for all parts with more in the way of sunshine D8 to 10 sees the low breaking through so turning more unsettled with some rain / showers for all parts at some point

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Up-to Wednesday it doesn't look too bad warmer for all parts with more in the way of sunshine D8 to 10 sees the low breaking through so turning more unsettled with some rain / showers for all parts at some point

Looks like a transient low though, and with High Pressure never far away it could return after 

[William Grimsley]

21 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Looks like a transient low though, and with High Pressure never far away it could return after 

Have to agree, that low pressure to the SW is making me excited, you can just imagine that joining with that other low and then all hell breaks loose down here!

[Captain Shortwave]

35 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Looks like a transient low though, and with High Pressure never far away it could return after 

I have seen a lot worse, 850s are actually fairly warm so surface temperatures should still be pretty decent and with cold air aloft there should be some beefy showers which would be slow moving. Still a long way off with conditions improving by the weekend as the strong NE wind eases and becomes more variable.

   

Low twenties by Saturday, a huge improvement on the low to mid teens for the rest of the week.

[wishingforsnow]

22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I have seen a lot worse, 850s are actually fairly warm so surface temperatures should still be pretty decent and with cold air aloft there should be some beefy showers which would be slow moving. Still a long way off with conditions improving by the weekend as the strong NE wind eases and becomes more variable.

   

Low twenties by Saturday, a huge improvement on the low to mid teens for the rest of the week.

Looks like Summer begins next week   The cool and cloudy crud can't go away soon enough!

Edited June 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Chris.R]

2 hours ago, phil nw. said:

It's good to see signs of a general warm up on the 12z GFS after the last couple of days of dull and quite chilly weather for much of central and eastern England.Indeed many parts further north and west have had some quite decent sunshine and warmth so as the easterly cyclonic feed dies away by the end of the week we are looking at much sunnier and warmer weather for many of us.

 

Low 20's max's but look out for some showers here and there further south.

UKMO also showing the slow moving low out west and the warmer surge off the continental ridge.

  

so something more Summery from later in the week -not completely dry but certainly feeling warmer with more sunshine about from the weekend as the pattern starts to change.

 

5 sunny days  in a row here with  temperatures around 20°C every day. Summer has already started in the north-west as you say. 

Edited June 1, 2016 by Chris.R

[Matthew.]

Going back to charts showing Northerly Blocking it reminds a bit of how June 2013 began. It's as if the after affects of an Ssw event trembles on for months after. In 2013 this northerly pattern halted from the last 3rd of the month with a notable increase in temperatures. Maybe this last 3rd is where the long awaited appearance of the Azores High will make its self manifest sending Low pressure systems into Iceland as pressure falls to the North( sorry nothing against Iceland) Just a theory is all.

Edited June 1, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Polar Maritime]

Some nice warm thundery conditions continue to show this morning from the GFS, Pushing up from the S/E into next week. Temps could touch 25/26c in parts of the South.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

Great looking 00z ukmo and gfs, with almost a week of warmth being modelled. Chances of big thunderstorms too. Bring it on!

[Matthew.]

ECM looks very conducive to thunderstorms next weekend as incredibly high humidity sets in

[Gibby]

Readers of my website will of noticed that some of the detail in the services it provides have been temporarily suspended or modified while a new website is being built and this is true of the Model Analysis page. So from now until further notice just 'My Thoughts' will be published daily here. The new website should be online sometime in July and my regular daily analysis as you know it will return then. In the meantime here's my thoughts for today's crop of output.

The model output today still show a lot of slack pressure likely across the UK for another week at least as no one pressure area (be it low or high) has overall control of the UK weather. For the time being High pressure to the North and Low pressure over Europe maintains an East or NE feed of air across the UK bringing warmer air from Europe at the weekend and re-introducing thundery showers in places especially over the South and West. Then a Low pressure area over the Atlantic may hold the key to a move away from the current pattern as it drifts ENE towards the UK next week. With pressure then slowly rising over Europe some better conditions look likely there while the UK turns more unsettled with rain and showers in winds more from the SW than for some considerable time. While this process is undertaken some very warm air could waft over the South and East making any rain thundery in nature in places. GFS takes this Low pressure further to the North with the South and East seeing the warmest and driest weather of the two weeks in this evolution before it too joins the cooler unsettled theme later in Week 2. The GFS Clusters support the theme of the UK under an unsettled Atlantic feed of air with rain and showers at Day 14 with ECM's mean chart for Day10 illustrating something along similar lines.So all in all today a change looks on the way but we may have to be patient and for those who have basked in recent sunshine and warmth in the NW of the UK the change may not be so welcome as it looks like it could become their turn to see some rain and showers while the South and East have a better chance of seeing some warmth and dry periods between scattered thundery showers. 

[Summer Sun]

Big changes are coming for the east after a week of suppressed temps they will begin to rise from Saturday away from the coast with high teens low 20's quite widespread

Sunday sees temperatures more widely into the high teens and low 20's though again right on the east coast it will remain fresher

Into next week and that's when things really begin to warm up as we some humid and potentially thundery air arriving

After a week of the north west seeing the highest temperatures things will change with these areas seeing the lower temperatures (though still very respectable)

[mb018538]

ECM is still very keep to steamroller the Atlantic through by the weeks end. UKMO looks like it could evolve in a similar fashion. GFS has a more preferable evolution, but is a bit of a warm outlier In the ensemble cluster, so I would expect something closer to the ECM picture to emerge, though details will be hard to pin down. Either way, it looks warm!!

[mountain shadow]

After seeing the GFS and Meto the ECM was a disappointment however with the models not in agreement about a breakdown next week still all to play for.