Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Scorcher]

15 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, a very poor end to the ECM run, straight back to cold and cloud. Had my fill of that thanks! Let's hope the GFS is more on the mark.

Amazing that you're emphasising the end of the run when we've got a whole week of excellent weather ahead- the ECM has been pushing back the breakdown anyway.

[northwestsnow]

I think its worth remembering western Britain  will have seen probably 10 days or more of fine warm weather before the breakdown at the end of the next working week.Thats probably better than the whole summer in some years past!!

Anyway, GFS prolongs the nice weather into next weekend, we wait to see if the Euros fall into line or stick with the quicker end to the heat, either way, the bulk of next week looks very warm and at times unstable, tantastic!!

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z is so good i could crush a grape

Delays the breakdown yet again - can it Donald the euros again!!!!??

[Man With Beard]

GFS has done well (it would seem!) with events for the end of next week - at T144, the trough in the Atlantic is as far away as ever. Remember, just three days ago some other models had the Atlantic trough on top of us at this time!

[Matthew.]

Look at that Azores high sneaking in from the Sw

[knocker]

Both the ecm and NOAA 6-10 anomalies are more or less in agreement with the breakdown at the end of the week accordiing to the ecm. Both have major troughs N. Scandinavia and NE Canada.

In the meantime

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.

[summer blizzard]

The difference in modelling between the GFS and Euro is largely down to the interaction of the wave currently in the Carribean which will develop over the weekend and exit into the Atlantic mid week as a secondary low. The GFS captures it early and essentially swings it north so that it never really affects the UK (the next low wins but that's an ordinary one). The Euro on the other hand allows the low to ride the Azores High and it never really gets properly captured so we have a low much further south headed straight for the UK. 

 

Welcome to hurricane season 2016 and its associated model flip flops. 

[Airedalejoe]

What's this 'cool' and cloudy? It's been bloody freezing! Endless weeks of our trade wind North Easterlies, usually cloudy, sometimes wet, sometimes windy.

Looking forward to this change, would prefer it dry and sunny so outdoor living can be had but even a rise in temps will be a bonus, 10C in June is a joke!

[Frosty.]

46 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:

What's this 'cool' and cloudy? It's been bloody freezing! Endless weeks of our trade wind North Easterlies, usually cloudy, sometimes wet, sometimes windy.

Looking forward to this change, would prefer it dry and sunny so outdoor living can be had but even a rise in temps will be a bonus, 10C in June is a joke!

Agreed, it's been absolutely dire in the NE especially and poor across the east and southeast generally but the good news from the Gfs 6z & met office latest update is for warm / very warm weather to cover most of the UK for most of the week ahead except the far north. The warm up is already happening in the east so many of us will join the west in the glorious weather that the western half of the UK has been enjoying all this week and interest for storm enthusiasts as early as today in a few places and more so in the week ahead with homegrown scattered T-Storms breaking out and some being imported from France too but I'm just pleased to see the majority of the UK is now feeling the warmth instead of just the west!

Edited June 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[markyo]

47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, it's been absolutely dire in the NE especially and poor across the east and southeast generally but the good news from the Gfs 6z & met office latest update is for warm / very warm weather to cover most of the UK for most of the week ahead except the far north. The warm up is already happening in the east so many of us will join the west in the glorious weather that the western half of the UK has been enjoying all this week and interest for storm enthusiasts as early as today in a few places and more so in the week ahead with homegrown scattered T-Storms breaking out and some being imported from France too but I'm just pleased to see the majority of the UK is now feeling the warmth instead of just the west!

I suspect these forcasts may be over cooking it for the midlands northwards,forcast 23c today by me,just scrapped 18c now and full cloud. Fact it will warm up but for many not much higher than low twenties i bet. Further south yes it will be warmer but even this won't be long lasting. 

[Chris.R]

23.4 C, around what was forecast

[Captain Shortwave]

Finally the low cloud is starting to clear off, though sea mist and low cloud could still be prevalent along eastern coasts, though more of an early morning issue as opposed to the widespread grey skies across southern and eastern areas. 

The temperatures look could for the next couple of days.

   

27C possible anywhere really from the London area, the Midlands up to north west England. I would possibly favour Manchester, especially as it is the warmest place today at 24C.

Tuesday onwards is more uncertain as cloud amounts will be higher with the risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms developing. I suspect 80F would be achievable on most days this coming week. I don't think the 30C mark will be breached though, the pattern is a bit to slack and humid, we would need a stronger ridge at 500mb to suppressed convection and allow the heat to build.

[Scorcher]

Yes CS, we're doing incredibly well here today in Manchester, it's been almost unbroken hazy sun since about midday and it's a very favourable wind direction for us at the moment. Tomorrow looks fantastic for the Soccer Aid football match at Old Trafford and the Coldplay concert at the Etihad. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS and UKMO are still in disagreement at t144

GFS is keen to keep the high UKMO isn't

[cheese]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

I suspect these forcasts may be over cooking it for the midlands northwards,forcast 23c today by me,just scrapped 18c now and full cloud. Fact it will warm up but for many not much higher than low twenties i bet. Further south yes it will be warmer but even this won't be long lasting. 

In what way? The BBC show highs of 22-23C next week for here. They're not 'overcooking' it - looks perfectly reasonable to me.

[markyo]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, it's been absolutely dire in the NE especially and poor across the east and southeast generally but the good news from the Gfs 6z & met office latest update is for warm / very warm weather to cover most of the UK for most of the week ahead except the far north. The warm up is already happening in the east so many of us will join the west in the glorious weather that the western half of the UK has been enjoying all this week and interest for storm enthusiasts as early as today in a few places and more so in the week ahead with homegrown scattered T-Storms breaking out and some being imported from France too but I'm just pleased to see the majority of the UK is now feeling the warmth instead of just the west!

I suspect these forcasts may be over cooking it for the midlands northwards,forcast 23c today by me,just scrapped 18c now and full cloud. Fact it will warm up but for many not much higher than low twenties i bet. Further south yes it will be warmer but even this won't be long lasting. 

[markyo]

Just now, markyo said:

I suspect these forcasts may be over cooking it for the midlands northwards,forcast 23c today by me,just scrapped 18c now and full cloud. Fact it will warm up but for many not much higher than low twenties i bet. Further south yes it will be warmer but even this won't be long lasting. 

As with the winter forecasts i feel that the operational charts always play to the extreme of the possible outcomes,very very rarely do these come off. Localised temps in my area will be below those forecast in my opinion. But i could be wrong!

[northwestsnow]

GFS sticking to its guns, sunday is breakdown day, UKMO says Friday.

Would have been nice to see ukmo back down, we wait for ecm.

[Captain Shortwave]

We have the regional threads and a specific thread for each day designed for people to express the weather for their location.

Can we keep talk to the models in here please.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z looks good for the week ahead with temps varying between low and mid 20's celsius across most of the UK apart from the far north with the most favoured spots in the south potentially reaching 80F which would be nothing to be sniffed at in early summer. There will be some dry and sunny weather for all but with heavy and thundery showers breaking out each day but the very nature of showers means some areas will miss them and have long sunny spells while others get a soaking but really there is nothing to moan about, it looks warm and humid, much better than the cool, cloudy dross the east has been plagued with all week long...those who have been disappointed with today should have plenty to smile about tomorrow with some parts reaching 25c 77f.

[Matthew.]

Thanks for the charts Frosty. Let's hope pressure falls to the north so them low pressure systems can slip away quietly without disturbing the Uk later next week.

[Singularity]

I'm unsure how well the models handle day-to-day warming in-situ during slack weather patterns across the UK. Though the slightly reduced temperatures after tomorrow may just be down to larger amounts of cloud. This being a point to take note of - after tomorrow, skies look to be around 50% clear for much of the time, as a broad estimate.

 

Longer term, great uncertainty in the much-advertised push from the west, as it's magnitude will depend on how a tropical cyclone, currently organising very slowly just southeast of the Gulf of Mexico, behaves over the coming 4-5 days. The models assume organisation into a large tropical storm or subtropical storm that moves through Florida and on into the Atlantic - but if it turns out stronger or weaker than that, the track will shift and future interaction with the Atlantic jet stream can't be guaranteed to play out as the models currently assume.

Take Colin-to-be out of the equation and we could hang on to a ridge from the southwest. Fingers crossed.

[stainesbloke]

9 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Amazing that you're emphasising the end of the run when we've got a whole week of excellent weather ahead- the ECM has been pushing back the breakdown anyway.

Fair enough, I was just a bit disappointed to see the return of northerly winds after a few good runs. It has been horrible here for 5 days now, no sunshine and with max temps around 12C....that's extremely poor for June. GFS has modelled a far better picture, as I alluded to in my post. The next few days look great so will enjoy that!

Edited June 4, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Summer Sun]

Next weekend will feel very different to this one if ECM is right

Before then though we've got plenty of warmth to enjoy and probably some thunderstorms thrown in as well for some

[Frosty.]

Let's accentuate the positives and there are plenty of them within the reliable timeframe according to the Ecm 12z all the way to around T+144 / T+168 hours. It looks warm / very warm and increasingly humid across most of the UK with good sunny spells and light winds but with isolated or scattered T-Storms being triggered during the week ahead, it's very good early summer weather in my book and much, much better than the very cool NE'ly cloud fest the eastern side of the UK has been stuck under for the last week. There is a change being shown from next weekend but let's enjoy what's right in front of us and see if the medium range improves. Looking further ahead, the met office indicate we could be seeing a very summery spell late June / early July so there is no reason to be downbeat, just enjoy the warmth and sunshine tomorrow and next week.