Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The Gem & Ukmo 12z are also painting an unsettled outlook from Friday onwards and throughout next week...sorry..hey why am I apologising, it's the blxxdy weather's fault..not mine!

[Matthew.]

I hope Colin is the last storm we see for a while. He's really stepped up the Jet! Midweek looks like the Low is over Scotland. We can hope it moves further Nw of course but the Models seem together on this one. Time will tell how much rain we get but I remember past Low pressures and not all are as bad as it looks.

[Summer Sun]

Although low pressure takes over next week winds don't look overly strong whilst any rain or showers could be slow moving in any sunshine it would be quite pleasant

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z joins the rogues gallery of 12z output with a slow moving trough close to or over the UK next week, the weather itself would probably be a mixture of sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery but with a few bands of persistent rain on the cards from this Friday onwards. Temps next week don't look too bad, down on this week but still high teens c across the south, nearer mid teens further north..how I would love to say there was a heatwave on the way, sadly there isn't!

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[Captain Shortwave]

It will be interesting whether the models start to increase this trend to potentially park low heights to our south west like the ECM op.

      

Still fairly unsettled but it would be rather warm with winds fairly light and often from a southerly quadrant. It also starts to offer other possibilities, one of course being that these low heights get squeezed out with another weak high developing to our north, or the developing Euro high can't manage to gain a foothold as low heights correct further south west with time. 

The GEM attempts a similar idea whilst the GFS ploughs the trough through the UK, but also clears this fairly quickly so it is difficult to gauge, the ECM and GEM have a similar idea, though with different outcomes at the surface, the GFS seems a tad more biased towards a westerly regime.

[mb018538]

Output looks thoroughly awful tonight, yet again we have low heights to the south and high pressure to the north, exactly what winter requires but never seems to deliver! I think we can safely write off the next 2 weeks of summer as fairly wet and unsettled!

[Frosty.]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Output looks thoroughly awful tonight, yet again we have low heights to the south and high pressure to the north, exactly what winter requires but never seems to deliver! I think we can safely write off the next 2 weeks of summer as fairly wet and unsettled!

It's lovely output if you are a duck!

[William of Walworth]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Output looks thoroughly awful tonight, yet again we have low heights to the south and high pressure to the north, exactly what winter requires but never seems to deliver! I think we can safely write off the next 2 weeks of summer as fairly wet and unsettled!

I'm as pessimistic as anyone at the moment/right now, but 'writing off' is (almost) always poor practice when interpreting synoptics.

My only current strawclutch for later on, is that there's been quite a dramatic swing towards Low Pressure-dominating conditions over the last 2/3/4 days in synoptic prospects for later June.

Overdramatic, possibly? With some alteration of positioning still possible? Is such a  complete removal of HP influence for later in June -- influence that was still being modelled by some output pretty recently -- not still open to question?

I suppose I'm just hoping that not everything's fully nailed on yet. I'm also hoping Tamara might have time to return soon, I always welcome her detail and analysis. Who's to say summerlovers would welcome her next updates mindyou ...

Edited June 7, 2016 by William of Walworth

[damianslaw]

Not had a look at the models for a few days, they are certainly showing a very different outlook - very unsettled with the trough anchoring itself over the country aided by northern heights to the north and a southerly tracking jet. Synoptics we have seen many a time in recent summers - but too early to tell of this is the default synoptic for the summer as a whole, pivotal time tends to come later in June than now.

[knocker]

The anomalies tonight are not that straightforward vis weather at least according to my limited interpretation. The 6-10s are all certainly on the same page, so uniformity there, with the upper low over the UK, ridging in mid Atlantic and the other low NE North America. This doesn't indicate an Atlantic driven flow but more an enclosed circulation over the UK This could well lead on the surface to an area of slack low pressure over the UK sinking south over France at the end of the period. I'm not even going to attempt to guess what weather this could but produce stick with safe variables of intermittent wet and dry periods

In the 10-15 period as the upper trough declines a light zonal westerly kicks in and we could be left with a north/south split as the EPS has the the Azores HP nudging NE with the trough away to the NW.

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The anomalies tonight are not that straightforward vis weather at least according to my limited interpretation. The 6-10s are all certainly on the same page, so uniformity there, with the upper low over the UK, ridging in mid Atlantic and the other low NE North America. This doesn't indicate an Atlantic driven flow but more an enclosed circulation over the UK This could well lead on the surface to an area of slack low pressure over the UK sinking south over France at the end of the period. I'm not even going to attempt to guess what weather this could but produce stick with safe variables of intermittent wet and dry periods

In the 10-15 period as the upper trough declines a light zonal westerly kicks in and we could be left with a north/south split as the EPS has the the Azores HP nudging NE with the trough away to the NW.

 

Like I said, great weather for ducks!

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Like I said, great weather for ducks!

Not necessarily so there could well be some reasonable weather out of that scenario.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not necessarily so there could well be some reasonable weather out of that scenario.

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nah it looks rubbish

Okay I'll bow to your superior wisdom.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Okay I'll bow to your superior wisdom.

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

 

[Frosty.]

Saturday still looks warm on the Gfs 18z with sunshine and showers, some heavy and still a risk of thunder but low 20's celsius is very pleasant. Nice spiders web from my back garden too!

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Okay I'll bow to your superior wisdom.

I apologise knocker

You clearly have the superior knowledge, no hard feelings I hope knocks.

[knocker]

Not a problem Frosty.

The GFS this morning for the next ten days, A warm day today with some thundery outbreaks likely mainly confined to the Midlands and the NW before the arrival of the fronts from the west on Friday leading to a wet/dry scenario over the weekend. Next week is dominated by a slack area of low Pressure in situ over the UK with ridging mid Atlantic which looks ripe for outbreaks of thundery activity interspersed with some sunny intervals. Temps near the seasonal average.

 

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not a problem Frosty.

The GFS this morning for the next ten days, A warm day today with some thundery outbreaks likely mainly confined to the Midlands and the NW before the arrival of the fronts from the west on Friday leading to a wet/dry scenario over the weekend. Next week is dominated by a slack area of low Pressure in situ over the UK with ridging mid Atlantic which looks ripe for outbreaks of thundery activity interspersed with some sunny intervals. Temps near the seasonal average.

 

Thanks knocker

[knocker]

The change in the upper air analysis from a couple of days ago would appear to be the ridging in mid Atlantic which leads to a cut off upper low over the UK. Of course this might not necessarily happen either.

[wishingforsnow]

The models are not looking as bad for the next week as they did 2 days ago. The worst should be Monday-Thursday and from Friday to next weekend it could be drier again. Met Office seems to paint a picture of a north/south split and a trend towards warmer conditions later on. To be fair the outlook they were going for with High Pressure influence in June followed by periods of Low Pressure has been give or take accurate. Hot spells are usually followed by a breakdown though for how long and if these breakdowns become entrenched weather patterns for the UK for weeks/months depends on synoptics. To me there should be enough High Pressure influence and a weak enough jet (temporarily spiked by Low Pressure influence next week) for High Pressure and warmer weather to easily return after a temporary period of unsettled weather following this warm spell. The Jet has already been very strong during late 2015 and the first part of 2016 so taking that into account, any Atlantic influence should be shorter in length than the weather we got in Winter 15/16 and Summer 2007/2012 which were preceded by a predominantely dry Summer and Autumn (2015) and Winter/Spring (2007/2012) where there was less Atlantic influence. Whereas in years such as 2012 the Jet was due to peak in strength in the Summer due to having a weak jet up until the Spring. Trends in the models recently (eg ECM making the low pressure slow moving throughout the week with periods of pleasant sunshine in between and High Pressure edging in at the end of a few model runs too) have laid off the strength in the supposed 'Atlantic onslaught' for next week in that it may not be as strong, as was previously modelled earlier  this week which is a good sign if this trend continues  I wouldn't be so pessimistic as to say most of June is a write off from the output for only 7-10 days for next week. In fact if the models continue to downgrade the low pressure influence it, as I suspect may not be too bad, only with slightly cooler temps than this week and more rain but slow moving so dry spells in between. To me it's just a temporary usual unsettled spell following a hot period of weather but nothing to get worried about for the rest of the Summer. Met Office is also currently backing warmer conditions to slowly return after next week. 

Edited June 8, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[mb018538]

ECM offers a very faint glimmer of hope by 240 hours, as low pressure edges away east, heights drop over the Greenland area, and the Azores high starts to edge north. Perhaps by the final 10 days of June something a bit better may be on the cards. Until then it could be some classic British sunshine and heavy showery weather.

[wishingforsnow]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM offers a very faint glimmer of hope by 240 hours, as low pressure edges away east, heights drop over the Greenland area, and the Azores high starts to edge north. Perhaps by the final 10 days of June something a bit better may be on the cards. Until then it could be some classic British sunshine and heavy showery weather.

Yes ECM was starting to show improvements from last night by downgrading the intensity of the LP period next week and showing HP edging is, as it is still doing now. Models showing improvements this close to the start of next week is encouraging. I think the only really 'bad' period will be the start-middle of next week as for my location temperatures drop to high teens at the start of next week with showery weather but creep up to low 20s by the weekend. Would tie in with what the Met currently think too; that this 'unsettled' period shouldn't be more than a brief cooler/wetter interlude for a few days to a week depending on your location (and with dry sunny periods interspersed between) 

[Frosty.]

There have been a few comments about the Ecm 00z but nobody posted a chart so here it is, the T+240 shows high pressure poised to build across the UK. Hopefully the upcoming more generally unsettled spell won't last long!