Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows an unsettled outlook from the weekend and especially throughout next week as a large trough swings SE over the UK with a very cyclonic pattern so there would be a general mixture of sunshine and heavy showers with hail and thunder but also longer spells of rain, however, there would also be some fine and pleasant intervals too, especially in the south, temperature wise, I think we would be looking at mid to high teens celsius from north to south with regional variations but there is some improvement by T+240 hours. Change is on the way..in the meantime, enjoy the continued warm spell for the next few days with plenty of sunshine and a few thunderstorms here and there with temps into the mid 20's celsius.

[knocker]

Good agreement this evening between all the anomalies in the 6-10 day period with troughs adjacent to the UK and NE North America leaving the Atlantic dominated by low pressure with a zonal westerly flow bringing periods of wet and maybe windy weather interspersed with sunny and drier interludes with temps returning to around average.

No major changes in 10-15 period so at the moment when this fine spell ends at the end of the week the transition to the new regime is looking likely to last at least until the 21st.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Good agreement this evening between all the anomalies in the 6-10 day period with troughs adjacent to the UK and NE North America leaving the Atlantic dominated by low pressure with a zonal westerly flow bringing periods of wet and maybe windy weather interspersed with sunny and drier interludes with temps returning to around average.

No major changes in 10-15 period so at the moment when this fine spell ends at the end of the week the transition to the new regime is looking likely to last at least until the 21st.

Aye it's looking good for the gardens to get a good watering and the ducks will love it too!

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Aye it's looking good for the gardens to get a good watering and the ducks will love it too!

Ducks maybe but Sidney was rather pensive when I gave him the news this morning.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ducks maybe but Sidney was rather pensive when I gave him the news this morning.

LOL yes I forgot to mention Sidney, hope he's ok knocks

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Good agreement this evening between all the anomalies in the 6-10 day period with troughs adjacent to the UK and NE North America leaving the Atlantic dominated by low pressure with a zonal westerly flow bringing periods of wet and maybe windy weather interspersed with sunny and drier interludes with temps returning to around average.

No major changes in 10-15 period so at the moment when this fine spell ends at the end of the week the transition to the new regime is looking likely to last at least until the 21st.

Yes not a great summery pattern after this weekend - small chance of a ridge breaking through by the end of next week but even the great GFS isn't keen so likely that there would be a few more changeable/unsettled days after that too.

[knocker]

No great change in the outlook this morning.

Thundery outbreaks likely today and then the breakdown on Friday and hello Atlantic.

Looking at last night's EC32 means update there are indications that the Azores HP will be more influential from the 22nd onwards well into July.

Edited June 7, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

On 05/06/2016 at 14:34, Frosty. said:

My punt is after an unsettled blip through mid June, late June should see increasing Azores high influence with warmer, drier and sunnier conditions developing away from the northwest corner of the UK so Glastonbury could be fine and warm with temps into the low to mid 70's F.

I said something similar on Sunday..fingers crossed

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I said something similar on Sunday..fingers crossed

Wimbledon in sunshine then! usually the hottest days are during Wimbledon, 30th June and 01 July last year, 01 Jul was Wimbledon's hottest day, in a fairly ordinary summer

[knocker]

Let's not get carried away here. The 30th June is 23 days away!!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Let's not get carried away here. The 30th June is 23 days away!!

Yes you're right knocker

30-7=23

[Polar Maritime]

Lets please try and stick to sensible discussion around the Model Outputs in here, Thanks.

[stainesbloke]

GFS run is ugly viewing if anything summery is what you're after. Winds from the NW/N/NE, troughing sat over the UK for the run up until the very end, when the Azores high shows signs of ridging in towards us. May well be quite interesting for anything convective if we get some decent clearer slots and on this run we are spared the gales that batter Benelux/N Germany at least....yes, it is June!!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wimbledon in sunshine then! usually the hottest days are during Wimbledon, 30th June and 01 July last year, 01 Jul was Wimbledon's hottest day, in a fairly ordinary summer

Good heavens, I find myself agreeing with you! Other than 2012 when the best weather seemed to coincide with the Olympics in late July and August, Wimbledon does indeed often see good weather. I was there in 2009 on July 01st and the weather was nothing short of scorching.

Interestingly, the synoptics of late June 2009 and early July were not too dissimilar to what we have at the moment, just a little later in the month and so more heat to tap into. Slack airflow was the name of the game before the Atlantic edged in by the 04th and then we all know how the rest of that July turned out. I'm certainly not saying that is what the models are showing, as there are indeed signs in FI of high pressure returning from the southwest in the final third of the month, but Atlantic onslaughts can be an absolute pain to shift, not least because after the Atlantic loses its oomph, troughs just seem to stop over the UK - the GFS 00Z is a good example of this.

Hopefully the extent of the Atlantic onslaught will be downgraded and emphasis will be on sunshine, showers and lighter winds rather than wind and rain which would be more suited to September onwards. All eyes on future runs and best enjoy the rest of this week's offerings.

[carinthian]

Its 10 days away, but shows signs from this mornings Euro model of a repeat pattern in development. Namely, a formation of the Western European trough, which again with strong convective heat at this time of year could produce the very vaporous storms for the same places hit by the recent floods. Again ,a ridge develops to the NW , so looks like a blocking pattern to me , rather than a Atlantic dominance . Still a long way out but the Euro model seems to pick up this set up faster than the GFS. UKMO maybe something in between at the moment. Still great weather and model watching so far this summer.

C

[Matthew.]

The GEM 0z you can really see the secondary Low gaining momentum and powering towards the Uk with the original Low developing it seems on Thursday in the Atlantic.

[cheese]

21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Good heavens, I find myself agreeing with you! Other than 2012 when the best weather seemed to coincide with the Olympics in late July and August, Wimbledon does indeed often see good weather. I was there in 2009 on July 01st and the weather was nothing short of scorching.

Interestingly, the synoptics of late June 2009 and early July were not too dissimilar to what we have at the moment, just a little later in the month and so more heat to tap into. Slack airflow was the name of the game before the Atlantic edged in by the 04th and then we all know how the rest of that July turned out. I'm certainly not saying that is what the models are showing, as there are indeed signs in FI of high pressure returning from the southwest in the final third of the month, but Atlantic onslaughts can be an absolute pain to shift, not least because after the Atlantic loses its oomph, troughs just seem to stop over the UK - the GFS 00Z is a good example of this.

Hopefully the extent of the Atlantic onslaught will be downgraded and emphasis will be on sunshine, showers and lighter winds rather than wind and rain which would be more suited to September onwards. All eyes on future runs and best enjoy the rest of this week's offerings.

I'd say the hottest temperatures of the year would more likely fall in the last week of July and first week of August on average, given that is statistically the warmest 2-week period and high temperature records tend to fall in early August. Indeed from 1986 to 2006 the highest temperature of the year here in Leeds occurred in August more than any other month, but since 2007 less so due to the run of lackluster August's.

Off topic though.. no more from me.

Edited June 7, 2016 by cheese

[Man With Beard]

Hmmm...

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

20 ensemble members + control run + op run, and not one settled picture between them at T240. Best not plan any BBQs for the weekend 18/19 June just yet.

CET for June likely to plummet next week, and little sign of an improvement beyond that. The best hope is a ridge building to our west, which would be good for western areas but still not that great for eastern ones.

[knocker]

There is nothing from the EPS anomalies this morning to suggest anything but zonal out to the 22nd.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

There is nothing from the EPS anomalies this morning to suggest anything but zonal out to the 22nd.

Sidney won't like that!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

No great change in the outlook this morning.

Thundery outbreaks likely today and then the breakdown on Friday and hello Atlantic.

Looking at last night's EC32 means update there are indications that the Azores HP will be more influential from the 22nd onwards well into July.

The very same thing was said approximately one month ago!! HP will return In the final week of May to bring wall to wall sunshine well into June.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows a very unsettled outlook from Friday onwards although temperatures across southern uk remain on the warm side, around 70F until the end of the weekend and then from early next week they fall to nearer the mid 60's F but progressively cooler further north. Next week shows a large trough swinging SE from Iceland right over the UK bringing a cyclonic showery pattern, some heavy with hail and thunder but with sunny spells between, however, there are likely to be longer spells of rain too. The trough slowly fills in situ and drifts north but is soon replaced by another low towards the end of the run with stronger winds and temps drop below average for a time although there are signs of improvement by the end of the run. I guess it will be welcome rain for some, especially as someone on here was moaning about too much sunshine in the west last week!..takes all sorts.

[William of Walworth]

The above is nothing but nightmareish (such as myself)  for amyone focussing on medium term patterns, (ie, from the weekend of 18th June onwards, for reasons you know). It seems very extreme though to me. Surely there's some half-way chance of the extremity of these lows (and possibly the positioning) being altered/downgraded?

Have we really lost all prospect of any HP influence at all for later in June? Only yesterday there was still talk of it.

This is all FI I know ...

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

The above is nothing but nightmareish (such as myself)  for amyone focussing on medium term patterns, (ie, from the weekend of 18th June onwards, for reasons you know). It seems very extreme though to me. Surely there's some half-way chance of the extremity of these lows (and possibly the positioning) being altered/downgraded?

Have we really lost all prospect of any HP influence at all for later in June? Only yesterday there was still talk of it.

This is all FI I know ...

It's really dead in here isn't it?

I don't think it will turn out as bad as the Gfs 6z shows, certainly the met office update I read earlier indicates some dry and sunny weather next week as well as some unsettled conditions.

[Frosty.]

Not too much I can say about the Gfs 12z op run. It shows unsettled  weather from the Atlantic working across the UK on Friday with an unsettled weekend to follow and temperatures gradually falling to near normal, cooler further north. Next week I have shown a midweek snapshot which sums up next week with low pressure firmly in control bringing a cyclonic mix of sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery with bands of more persistent rain but with drier, brighter spells too, mainly further south. The trough responsible gradually fills in situ and drifts north but is then reinforced by further shallow troughs bringing more cool showery conditions and mid to high teens celsius maxima but the end of the run shows high pressure poised to build in from the southwest / west...sorry but that's the best I can say about this run guys.