Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the reliable timeframe the Gfs 12z is showing some very nice warmth with temps varying from low to mid 20's celsius and even by next weekend some areas are around 70F. FI chops and changes every run, the 6z showed the Azores high building in through low res so I would not worry about what this run shows beyond the week ahead as it will keep changing...in the meantime, enjoy the summery weather!

[knocker]

As the GEFs moves towards the last ecm

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a warm week ahead with +10 850's still covering southern uk by next Friday so potentially temps still into the low to mid 20's celsius. Anyone on holiday for the next 5 days has picked a good week because there looks like being a lot of fine sunny weather and storm enthusiasts have a chance of catching a few intense T-Storms until and including the midweek period. This run shows a general break down to unsettled weather during next weekend from the west,  more especially into the following week but temperature wise we should still be looking at high teens celsius, maybe a touch higher depending on sunshine....it could be a lot worse, just ask those who endured that very cool / cloudy dross across the east for most of the last week! Anyway, plenty to enjoy about the next five days or so before Fi.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Just a heads up i have moved a moaning post and it's responses to the Summer thread here

A reminder to the few that go off topic like this that this is not the thread for personal moans or preferences..

Thanks. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All !!! Some pretty decent weather across the Uk  during this week!! However the Atlantic is moving in for us late  next week....

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a transition to unsettled weather from the west during next weekend and more so into the following week but it also shows our current warmth lasting until late in the week ahead, the next 5 days or so are looking very decent by early summer standards, lots of sunshine, temps well into the 70's F and isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms with warm, muggy nights..hopefully this is just a glimpse of what summer 2016 has in store for the UK!

[knocker]

Certainly firming up on a spell of unsettled weather after the warm spell starting Friday according to the ecm anomalies.

[knocker]

Nothing we don't already know from the GFS this morning. Very warm for the next four days, particularly today and tomorrow, and especially for N. Ireland and the north west where thundery outbreaks over the next two days are most likely. Then on Friday the transition from HP influence to to the encroachment of the Atlantic and frontal systems from the west which become well established by Sunday.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run shows gorgeous weather across most of the UK up to and including the midweek period with plenty of very warm sunshine but with an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially tomorrow. Beyond midweek the risk of showers diminishes and becomes restricted to western areas with the south of the UK becoming largely fine with temps still into the low 20's celsius towards the weekend but the northern half of the UK becomes more unsettled from Friday and we all see a change to unsettled Atlantic weather during next weekend. During next week it looks quite cyclonic with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers with thunder but during low res the Azores high starts to ridge towards the UK..so, after a cooler and more unsettled period through mid june with temps around the mid 60's f across southern areas, rather lower further north..it warms up and starts to settle down again with temps into the 70's F..hopefully the Azores high will be our friend this summer! 

[mb018538]

Looks like we're nailed on for a pretty disturbed spell of weather coming in from Saturday onwards. How long it will last is the main question. I think weather patterns and modelling may be very hard to forecast this summer with La Nina setting in, and a warm breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes (which tend to be numerous in La Nina years). I think at the very least we're looking at 10 days unsettled stuff with a fairly strong jet across the Atlantic, with us on the cooler side of things too.

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 00z op run shows gorgeous weather across most of the UK up to and including the midweek period with plenty of very warm sunshine but with an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially tomorrow. Beyond midweek the risk of showers diminishes and becomes restricted to western areas with the south of the UK becoming largely fine with temps still into the low 20's celsius towards the weekend but the northern half of the UK becomes more unsettled from Friday and we all see a change to unsettled Atlantic weather during next weekend. During next week it looks quite cyclonic with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers with thunder but during low res the Azores high starts to ridge towards the UK..so, after a cooler and more unsettled period through mid june with temps around the mid 60's f across southern areas, rather lower further north..it warms up and starts to settle down again with temps into the 70's F..hopefully the Azores high will be our friend this summer! 

pleasant temperatures not really much in the way of rain execept for the risk tomorrow which is mainly wales far south of england and northern england scotland and even then for most it will be dry so a good week coming up that is until the weekend but no point fretting about that yet

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

pleasant temperatures not really much in the way of rain execept for the risk tomorrow which is mainly wales far south of england and northern england scotland and even then for most it will be dry so a good week coming up that is until the weekend but no point fretting about that yet

Yes Gordon I agree, we should enjoy this very pleasant spell and not get downbeat about the outlook, which doesn't look that bad anyway and if the met office are right, late June into July are looking good for many.

[Gordon Webb]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Gordon I agree, we should enjoy this very pleasant spell and not get downbeat about the outlook, which doesn't look that bad anyway and if the met office are right, late June into July are looking good for many.

also one more thing that pleases me from a purely selfish perspective I admit is that the focus of potential shower/s / storms tomorrow does not seem to favour my specific locale so one more reason to enjoy the weather

Edited June 6, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

also one more thing that pleases me from a purely selfish perspective I admit is that the focus of potential shower/s / storms tomorrow does not seem to favour my specific locale so one more reason to enjoy the weather

Indeed, the main storm risk is further north by north west with nw Wales perhaps the stormiest place later today and some storms across the interior of Scotland, tomorrow looks like the height of the storm risk but again the main focus is towards the NW before the risk diminishes after midweek.. for many it's a very good week up to and including Thursday, the south and southeast are likely to hold on to the largely fine and warm weather for longest.

[Matthew.]

Just looked at temps from the bbc models and they are indicating not cool but average for central and southern areas during this unsettled snap. As has been brought out settled weather could return fairly quickly by GFS and ECM earlier.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

As has been brought out settled weather could return fairly quickly by GFS and ECM earlier.

Not according to the Gfs 6z op, it looks unsettled from the weekend onwards, a large trough swings SE over the UK and next week looks cyclonic with sunshine and heavy thundery showers and longer spells of rain with temps down on this week, mid 60's F across the south but progressively cooler further n / nw.

[Frosty.]

The message from the Gfs 6z op run is make the most of the current summery conditions with the very warm sun and potential thunderstorms because from Friday and more especially the weekend onwards, it is set to become generally unsettled and cooler across the UK from the west, the s / se last to see the change but by the weekend / early next week onwards we are all in the same boat, a large trough dominating the BI with heavy showers, some with hail and thunder but also longer spells of rain, however, sunny spells too and temps not bad in the south, mid 60's F but nearer high 50's / low 60's F further n / nw. Unlike the 00z, the unsettled theme persists through to the end of the run and beyond with the best of any fine and pleasantly warm weather across more southern areas...as we know, low res ( T+192 hours onwards) is not to be taken as gospel and we could equally see the Azores high making a bigger impression on the UK after mid June...fingers crossed!

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts are rarely far out when all 3 are showing very similar charts. They are doing that and have trended to this over the past 2-3 days. So yes, the idea of less warm and more unsettled type weather from 6 days out, possibly starting at day 5 and out to day 14 or so seems the form horse. Not unsettled all the time, spells of warmth and some sunshine between systems crossing the country with the emphasis on longer dry and more sunshine and warmth likely for the southern third of the UK.

Beyond two weeks? I'll leave that to others.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited June 6, 2016 by johnholmes

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 03/06/2016 at 17:43, CreweCold said:

GFS 12z tones down the temperatures by a few degrees for next week...much better....into the low twenties rather than the mid to high twenties. Sunny, dry and warm- perfect early summer weather. I reckon the end game will be a UK trough further into June but will enjoy the pleasant weather beforehand.

Further into June I believe we may begin to see a general slide towards heights edging back north as the incoming Nina starts to get its feet under the table, so to speak. What does this mean for us? Well I rather suspect that eventually see the jet meander S of the UK which may allow troughing to become more established primarily towards the W and SW of the UK at first and becoming established more widely as time moves on. 

Typical Nina jet profile above with a strong-ish jet underpinning heights to the N

I concur fully with the individuals who are saying that this isn't currently a sustainable weather regime- we're treading eggshells really. For a more sustained 'locked in' period of heat you'd want to see the jet well N of the UK with a transport of heights N from N Africa and Spain which are then held in place via low heights to our N, rather than a high which displays tendencies to drift even further N than our latitude owing to heights already in situ to our N.

That'll be the UK trough that I discussed a few days ago then

Increasing signs of mid Atlantic ridging allied to some high latitude heights as we approach mid month- cooler and quite convective here

 

Personally speaking, my favourite type of summer weather....warm sunny spells interspersed by torrential downpours under a showery trough. Seen some cracking convection under that type of set up.

Edited June 6, 2016 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

This afternoons GEM brings high pressure back in during mid next week

GFS has low pressure firmly in charge

[Methuselah]

For anyone interested in the development of computer modelling, this might be a wee bitty interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07d7mqg/storm-troupers-the-fight-to-forecast-the-weather-episode-2

[Frosty.]

Well I had a look in the EU debate forum, gave my opinion and was mocked so I'm back here to give my opinion on the GEM 12z and I agree with summer sun, it would be nice if a ridge of high pressure builds in through the middle of next week..hope it gains momentum with this idea!

[Singularity]

I have noticed that what seems to be the trademark theme of spring-summer 2016 is gaining ground in the model guidance; height rises N and NE of the UK with an easterly that has its origins far enough south to bring us some quite warm air even when low pressure is dominating proceedings.

Certainly recent ECM runs have seem overly dramatic with the trough powering right through to the heart of Scandinavia and driving unseasonably cool air down across the UK from the N/NW.

I wonder if the progression might be adjusted downward even further. It would be far from unheard of - perhaps the setup of mid-May this year could be revisited, which saw the trough dive down to the west of Europe and then move very gradually east. Either way, it seems the UK and northern Europe will find settled conditions hard to come by during the middle part of June 2016. 

There is a lot of uncertainty with the broader scale pattern though; I've been watching the charts for the Arctic and it's been hard to get a clear picture as to whether conditions will tend to be dire for ice retention or pretty good for it. There seems to be a lack of sustained weather patterns up there at the moment - ridges and troughs interchanging with a frequency more usually seen at our latitudes!

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

For anyone interested in the development of computer modelling, this might be a wee bitty interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07d7mqg/storm-troupers-the-fight-to-forecast-the-weather-episode-2

Just watched the first 20 minutes of the 2nd one and it is superb.

I recommend it to everyone, I will be watching the 1st one then re watch the second. Early days but it looks like one of the best programmes into meteorology and trying to forecast the weather.

 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just watched the first 20 minutes of the 2nd one and it is superb.

I recommend it to everyone, I will be watching the 1st one then re watch the second. Early days but it looks like one of the best programmes into meteorology and trying to forecast the weather.

 

• I thought it was superb too, JH, despite the rather miserable review it got in the i...I don't know quite what some folks expect, these days - presenters at 90 degrees to the cameraman? All I want is a coldly scientific explanation of things.

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