Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Matthew.]

A great week to come 5th-11th. Hopefully we be able to clock up the days of cloudless skies here in the east as the west has done this week. The last week of June is getting very exciting. A couple of long-range forecasts have flagged up the potential of the Azores H moving over the Uk. One to certainly watch as we come nearer the time. 

Edited June 4, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

A quick summation of this morning's GFS for the week. A slack area of HP centred to the north is in charge until the encroachment of fronts from the west at the weekend/ So a week of settled quite warm weather with temps a little above average but on Tuesday especially a possibility of thundery outbreaks in some areas.

.

[knocker]

The ecm similar to the GFS except it moves the frontal systems in a little earlier by Friday evening and new regime well established by Sunday.

[Summer Sun]

ECM and GFS are still at odds for the breakdown

[Matthew.]

Haha! I love that SS! How long will this go on for GFS deserves a hug

[Frosty.]

There is lots to like about the Gfs 00z op run in the week ahead because it looks warm / very warm and humid with plenty of sunshine and through the first half of the week there is a risk of scattered thunderstorms but the second half of the week shows higher pressure bringing mainly dry conditions and long sunny periods with temps comfortably into the low 20's celsius, still a few showers but generally lovely conditions compared to the cool and cloudy dross which plagued the east recently, even next weekend looks largely fine and warm across southern uk on this run...hope its right!

Edited June 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

A quick look at the 6-10 anomalies and the reasons for the differences between the ecm and gfs det runs are fairly obvious. I'm inclined to favour the ecm interpretation but until this is resolved putting looking any further on the back burner for the moment.

 

Edited June 5, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Blimey that ECM mean is pretty awful one has to say.

Beginning to look like we will have to endure some pretty unsettled stuff for a while, hopefully not a long while..:)

[Gordon Webb]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is lots to like about the Gfs 00z op run in the week ahead because it looks warm / very warm and humid with plenty of sunshine and through the first half of the week there is a risk of scattered thunderstorms but the second half of the week shows higher pressure bringing mainly dry conditions and long sunny periods with temps comfortably into the low 20's celsius, still a few showers but generally lovely conditions compared to the cool and cloudy dross which plagued the east recently, even next weekend looks largely fine and warm across southern uk on this run...hope its right!

quick look at those charts and the weather this week doesn't look that bad pleasant temperatures and the risk of storms doesn't look overly high for the majority even in the first half of the week where the risk is projected but still no more than 40% at most so percentage wise greater chance of not seeing one than seeing one , looks a decent week all round

[MR EXTREMES]

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey that ECM mean is pretty awful one has to say.

Beginning to look like we will have to endure some pretty unsettled stuff for a while, hopefully not a long while..:)

the gem at around the same also indicating similar to ecm i hope its wrong to 

[Man With Beard]

What's really odd is the GFS/ECM ensembles are equally at odds:

  

The latest GFS continues to give good weather throughout next weekend:

  

though interestingly it managed to import some colder air from the NE, so back to the low 20s at best:

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

quick look at those charts and the weather this week doesn't look that bad pleasant temperatures and the risk of storms doesn't look overly high for the majority even in the first half of the week where the risk is projected but still no more than 40% at most so percentage wise greater chance of not seeing one than seeing one , looks a decent week all round

Yes Gordon, it's a good week of summery weather being shown on the models today, temps varying between low and mid 20's celsius which is a huge improvement for the NE / E / SE before this weekend..nothing to moan about IMO!

[Snowyowl9]

A great week to take advantage of this week make hay while the sun shines however ,last weeks rain never come off from the east just a bank of cloud.

Even the thundery showers look likely on Tuesday.

But on the face of it the way this year is going,I expect they`ll miss again.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.html

And be further into western wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.html

As much as I`d like to see a storm.

[Captain Shortwave]

49 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

A great week to take advantage of this week make hay while the sun shines however ,last weeks rain never come off from the east just a bank of cloud.

Even the thundery showers look likely on Tuesday.

But on the face of it the way this year is going,I expect they`ll miss again.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.html

And be further into western wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.html

As much as I`d like to see a storm.

Not for everyone though as the 2 inches of rain that fell in parts of East Anglia last Tuesday morning suggests along with embedded thunderstorms which I was lucky to be right under during the early hours.

Moving on, as others have suggested there is a clear difference of opinion in terms of how conditions will prevail from the end of this week onwards. The ECM wants to develop a trough over the UK bringing increasingly cool and unsettled weather, though temperatures do look like holding up for a time. 

   

That said it looks like the beginning of the following week rather than the weekend now that we see things really go downhill.

The GFS however suggests that the ridge currently influencing our weather will prove much more stubborn with the potential for weak heights to hold near the UK with at a slacker and mixed pattern developing as low pressure struggles to reach the UK.

   

The GFS solution whilst it turns less settled, the temperatures would likely remain near or a bit above normal with rain being more showery in nature. Longer term the GFS still wants to hold a decent area of heights to our east with a more north/south split in conditions with temperatures holding up fairly well, the ECM of course suggests unsettled weather countrywide with the chance of below average temperatures taking hold. This June could very well depend on which model is calling this correct, the GFS would likely push us towards a warm June in terms of CET, the ECM solution would start to drag us back to near normal or perhaps below if the cool/unsettled pattern persisted.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey that ECM mean is pretty awful one has to say.

Beginning to look like we will have to endure some pretty unsettled stuff for a while, hopefully not a long while..:)

Our lovely summer friend Mr Azores HP will always be sat close by and don't forget the jet is very weak so any W'lys should be short lived

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op shows plenty of warm weather, occasionally very warm, as will be the case during the week ahead with temps generally into the low 20's c and some areas hitting the mid 20's celsius at times. This run shows a risk of scattered thunderstorms up to and including midweek but drier later in the week, especially further south and even next weekend stays on the pleasantly warm side, especially Sunday. There is then a cooler less settled blip before the Azores high ridges in and warms things up again..all in all, a decent early summer run and a massive improvement for the eastern side of the UK which was so abysmally cool and dull recently....Enjoy the warmth and sunshine and hopefully we are in for a good summer following the pish poor winter and spring!

[tallsmithy]

Any thoughts on what conditions are likely for Glastonbury week? Probably too far out for the models atm but does anyone wanna take a punt?! 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, tallsmithy said:

Any thoughts on what conditions are likely for Glastonbury week? Probably too far out for the models atm but does anyone wanna take a punt?! 

My punt is after an unsettled blip through mid June, late June should see increasing Azores high influence with warmer, drier and sunnier conditions developing away from the northwest corner of the UK so Glastonbury could be fine and warm with temps into the low to mid 70's F.

[phil nw.]

Yes Week 2 is certainly looking cooler and less settled as the Atlantic moves in.

A look at the London temp. and rainfall ens graphs and the day 7 mean charts underline the change from next weekend

Note the 00z ECM op.looks wetter and cooler with the mean having the jet aimed more across the UK whereas the 06z GFS mean suggest a less active push off the Atlantic with every possibility that such a scenario could evolve into a more NW/SE split.Certainly there's still plenty of time for things to change more or less favourably with these differences between the 2 ens suites.

Meanwhile let's enjoy a pretty fine and Summery week to come-with just the chance of some showers Mon/Tues particularly for southern and western areas.Overall though some decent sunny and warm weather to enjoy for many of us i would think.

 

Edited June 5, 2016 by phil nw.

[MR EXTREMES]

46 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Week 2 is certainly looking cooler and less settled as the Atlantic moves in.

A look at the London temp. and rainfall ens graphs and the day 7 mean charts underline the change from next weekend

Note the 00z ECM op.looks wetter and cooler with the mean having the jet aimed more across the UK whereas the 06z GFS mean suggest a less active push off the Atlantic with every possibility that such a scenario could evolve into a more NW/SE split.Certainly there's still plenty of time for things to change more or less favourably with these differences between the 2 ens suites.

Meanwhile let's enjoy a pretty fine and Summery week to come-with just the chance of some showers Mon/Tues particularly for southern and western areas.Overall though some decent sunny and warm weather to enjoy for many of us i would think.

 

i noticed also even the gfs has the jet firing up straight at us it would seem the ecm indeed was on the money.

although as suggested some pretty steamy weather to come even yesterday u can feel the humidity rising.

hopefully some fireworks at some point.

[Summer Sun]

GFS and UKMO are not far apart at t120

GFS still isn't in any rush to bring the Atlantic in

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS and UKMO are not far apart at t120

GFS still isn't in any rush to bring the Atlantic in

i wont even bother saying no more summer exactly what i was going to say.

gfs is still not having none of it i actually interested to see who wins the data battle.

[Summer Sun]

And at t144 GFS and UKMO are still at odds

[knocker]

The GFS starts bringing the Atlantic fronts in on Friday and continues over the weekend.

[Matthew.]

Even in the unsettled spell possibly late next week and into the following temps still holding in the high-teens and double figures at night by the looks of things. Hope it will be Westerly rather than Nw'ly.