Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

the ecm anomaly has the upper low North Sea edging east. If we continue into the ext period the trough continues to move slowly east and decline whilst the Azores ridge moves in for a brief time before zonality sets in with weak LP to the NW and HP to the SW.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS is a gloom and doom fest right out for the next two weeks. At the same time Eastern Europe has heat pumped in from the South and temps shooting right into the mid 30's.   

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, 40*C said:

GFS is a gloom and doom fest right out for the next two weeks. At the same time Eastern Europe has heat pumped in from the South and temps shooting right into the mid 30's.   

 

Edited June 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Sadly it's been an all too familiar picture in a large number of summers the past 10-15 years. Obviously 2003 is excluded, as are the two mega hot Julys. But the trend seems to be heights high over Greenland, trough near or  over the UK, and hot in eastern Europe. Buck the trend please 2016!

[simshady]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

OMG you are right, I thought the Gfs 18z last night was an absolute horror show so I couldn't raise sufficient enthusiasm to post any charts beyond Saturday.. not sure I want to post the 6z either as I might be wasting my time, unless anyone wants me to?

Yes please. I think some of us would like to see them

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Sadly it's been an all too familiar picture in a large number of summers the past 10-15 years. Obviously 2003 is excluded, as are the two mega hot Julys. But the trend seems to be heights high over Greenland, trough near or  over the UK, and hot in eastern Europe. Buck the trend please 2016!

 

Edited June 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, simshady said:

Yes please. I think some of us would like to see them

Ok give me 10 mins and I will see what I can do

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

OMG you are right, I thought the Gfs 18z last night was an absolute horror show so I couldn't raise sufficient enthusiasm to post any charts beyond Saturday.. not sure I want to post the 6z either as I might be wasting my time, unless anyone wants me to?

cant post charts from a phone

[Frosty.]

Sorry for delay...the Gfs 6z op run ends on a very promising note with high pressure building in from the south and temperatures rising, if the run had gone further it would show temps into the 80's F with dry and sunny conditions.

In the meantime, it looks like becoming progressively more unsettled later this week, through the weekend and all next week with bands of rain crossing the UK from west to east with sunshine and heavy thundery showers between. Speaking of showers, with a trough drifting SE early next week and becoming slow moving over the UK, it looks very showery next week with sunny spells and slow moving heavy showers / thunderstorms very likely and as for temps, less warm than currently but still pleasantly warm, at least across the southern half of the UK, especially the south and east. The trough slowly fills in situ but we remain changeable for a time before that big improvement towards the end of the run.

[cheese]

To my untrained eye it doesn't look totally dreadful.. temperatures actually look respectable. Those above charts still showing 20C+ on some days. Might be unsettled, but doesn't look cold, and should feel warm in any sunshine (it's totally overcast here today so..).

Edited June 8, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

To my untrained eye it doesn't look totally dreadful.. temperatures actually look respectable. Those above charts still showing 20C+ on some days. Might be unsettled, but doesn't look cold, and should feel warm in any sunshine (it's totally overcast here today so..).

Yes it's better than I thought, especially later in low res. Anyway, gave the best update I could...cheers all.

[Matthew.]

Great charts to end the run Frosty. It will be interesting to see future developments. The latter charts look hosepipe ban material. Having seen that for a while. The ground is getting dry!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Great charts to end the run Frosty. It will be interesting to see future developments. The latter charts look hosepipe ban material. Having seen that for a while. The ground is getting dry!

Yes Matthew, a fantastic end to the Gfs 6z run...it would be great if something similar to that happens beyond the unsettled mid month period.. fingers crossed for a very warm and settled late June lasting well into July!

[cheese]

And hopefully no more easterly winds until November.. unless it's a hot south-easterly from the continent. 

Edited June 8, 2016 by cheese

[Methuselah]

TBH, and from a somewhat IMBY perspective, the entire run looks pretty tasty to me: though noticeably cooler than of late, next week offers a good chance of some thunderstorms/thundery showers again; and once the remnants of TS Colin (Colin??) have done their worst and died a death, a possible return to something more settled?

[Matthew.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, and from a somewhat IMBY perspective, the entire run looks pretty tasty to me: though noticeably cooler than of late, next week offers a good chance of some thunderstorms/thundery showers again; and once the remnants of TS Colin (Colin??) have done their worst and died a death, a possible return to something more settled?

Yes i agree and temperature wise the CET is already much higher than expected. I slight fall next week shown by GFS but things may turn out average so this may turn into a very warm June.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, and from a somewhat IMBY perspective, the entire run looks pretty tasty to me: though noticeably cooler than of late, next week offers a good chance of some thunderstorms/thundery showers again; and once the remnants of TS Colin (Colin??) have done their worst and died a death, a possible return to something more settled?

Yes I agree, I posted 22 charts so it can't be bad, should be some fantastic skies next week as thunderstorms bubble up, a bit like yesterday with the local flash floods, the main difference being the temps but they still look decent for the time of year and warm in the sunny spells..would love a late June heatwave, a much longer lasting one than we had at the start of July last year.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes this may turn into a very warm June.

Fingers crossed

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

17 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Can someone explain what this means as I'm one the very few who don't understand weather charts and diagrams as much ta.

I'm guessing the "heat" hashtag could mean a hot summer brewing but I could be wrong 

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Can someone explain what this means as I'm one the very few who don't understand weather charts and diagrams as much ta.

I'm guessing the "heat" hashtag could mean a hot summer brewing but I could be wrong 

The chap is an American forecaster and he will be referring to the US. As far as we are concerned that chart indicates more or less a neutral zonal pattern with perhaps the Azores edging a little for the south but temps around average perhaps a tad above. It's just one chart 15 days down the road so I wouldn't read too much into it as I think he was commenting out of interest.

Just to add the chart itself is not an indicator of temperature but 500mb heights and an indicator of where the area is above (yellow) and below (blue) climatology. He was noting none below.

Edited June 8, 2016 by knocker

[Scorcher]

Well the early stages of the GFS 12Z don't look too bad for most of us- it's reluctant to bring the trough in until Monday now which could allow for a decent weekend with respectable temperatures. The slow progression eastwards of the trough also means that we may well be on the warm side of it for much of next week- certainly not an awful situation and many places could see temperatures slightly above average.

[Summer Sun]

GFS and UKMO both have the low at t144 at 1000mb the only thing to agree on is its position

Whilst it won't be as warm as this week it would still be pleasant enough in any sunshine give the winds should be light

[Man With Beard]

That's two runs in a row from ECM that move the low pressure away from us by the end of next week. Perhaps not such a long washout after all? Rather different to the GFS, though:

Between T200 ans about T250, GEFS members are rather split between these two options - some keep low pressures coming in from the Atlantic, others build heights to our west. At least there are some lights at the end of the tunnel - though they may not yet be daylight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z GFS looks reminiscent of a summer in the not too distant past. Slack LPs across the country bringing areas of more persistent rain with sunshine and heavy, thundery downpours inbetween

[Summer Sun]

High pressure trying to move back in during the 2nd half of next week on tonight's ECM