Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Matthew.]

24 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Does this imply an increasing likelihood of unsettled weather /troughing/mobile w'ly as the main summer pattern is set, meaning a decent August is once again unlikely?

Possibly but as noted there are so many other components at play aswell. It might give 10% more chance of a poorer August. For now the Models do hint at a wave of better weather for next weekend as the Low pulls east. Hopefully its a case of the 'broken clock' scenario and that soon the long forecast presence of the Azores High will push further Nw

[Summer Sun]

ENS support from ECM for a rise in pressure later next week beyond the weekend the high stays close by so any unsettled weather will be in the far north

Edited June 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Well this is better from the Ecm 00z with the PFJ being pushed away to the NW as high pressure builds from the southwest / south..please let this trend be our friend!

[damianslaw]

Weather now reverting back to its more typical type, i.e. the classic NW-SE split thanks to a resurgent jetstream interplaying with the azores high, end result the classic ridge/trough westerly scenario. Its taking a little longer than anticipated to get there though, with heights remaining quite stubborn across the country preventing a clean atlantic sweep, but by tomorrow we will be there.

Weekend prospects look very mixed, showery downpours could occur anywhere, and it will be humid and quite muggy, temps maxing out close to average though. Next week will see more distinct bands of rain at times and more wind with temperatures very near the mid June average, which will probably feel cool to many after the recent very warm spell.

Looking further ahead, all models show a ridge building through the country next weekend resulting in drier warmer conditions, but the next trough feature is in wait, and I suspect we will see unsettled conditions returning quickly into NW parts, with the SE probably staying under the influence of the ridge as we head into the latter part of the month. Early-mid June patterns rarely set the tone for the rest of the summer, but those in the latter part of June often do -its a transitional period, and if such synoptics as shown now occur later in the month, then perhaps a very typical remainder of the summer will beckon, warm drier spells interspersed with showery wetter periods under a predominantly westerly airflow, whilst hardly anything to be excited about, neither would it warrant too much bemoaning except for those in the NW - who know all too well how dismal westerly/southwesterly airstreams are in high summer. Lets see how things play out - will the azores high gain the upper hand.. a pivotal point lies ahead.

A word on the last 2-3 weeks, superb weather here, excellent in all ways, yes its not been wall to wall sunshine in recent days, but temps have held well and we have had abundant sunshine, if we get another similiar spell even of a few days less duration at some further stage this summer, preferably late July - the optimum time then  the summer will at least go down as half decent, even if the rest is a washout.

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm anomaly for day ten sees the Azores HP becoming influential. The EPS for the next five days out to the 26th sees this influence spread north to encompass the whole of the UK

[Matthew.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at the ecm anomaly for day ten sees the Azores HP becoming influential. The EPS for the next five days out to the 26th sees this influence spread north to encompass the whole of the UK

I wonder if this is the first trill of the ride of the Azores coming into play

Edited June 11, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[MR EXTREMES]

On 10/06/2016 at 10:17, knocker said:

I'm afraid I'm not following that. I can't see any sign of blocking in the near future; on the contrary the pattern seems very mobile.

well i see blocking and id be inclined to say if we where in winter now we would be rather excited.

todays output shows some warmth returning to the south in later runs this includes gfs and ecm although of coarse different in there evolution.

ecm has nice euro heights and possibly leading to more warmer and settled in the south and agree northern blocking to our ne not especially strong.

gefs shows euro heights and lower heights over scandi threw the uk especially to our south with more unsettled picture for france which im sure they could do with out,

and an east based neg nao with northern blocking over greenland although fi but the models are playing with the idea.

gfs has euro heights again so the euro heights do seem to be a likely feature moving on but northern blocking not as intense as the gefs but after some cooling of it looks likely that most models are set to return the warmth in one form or another.

and certainly unsettled at the start from all the models.

still pretty muggy here in the south atm.

still feel a muggy thundery summer is on the cards which i can live with......

 

 

[DR(S)NO]

Those charts for the tail end of next week look promising for the south at least... Anyone want to hazard a guess at the weather the following week in the Paris area for the Euro games?

[Frosty.]

59 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I wonder if this is the first trill of the ride of the Azores coming into play

Yeah, or thrill even

[Frosty.]

28 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Those charts for the tail end of next week look promising for the south at least... Anyone want to hazard a guess at the weather the following week in the Paris area for the Euro games?

Hotting up according to the Gfs 6z and becoming more anticyclonic for a time followed by a very warm / humid thundery breakdown, the weather warms up again across the UK too with very warm sunshine then humid and thundery...

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Looking at the ecm anomaly for day ten sees the Azores HP becoming influential. The EPS for the next five days out to the 26th sees this influence spread north to encompass the whole of the UK

I like the look of this. Everything heading back to where it should be - Azores high, and Icelandic low. Baby steps, but definitely moving in the right direction.

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows the high moving in just in time for next weekend the beeb are fairly confident high pressure will move in as well

UKMO has the high ready and waiting at t144

Edited June 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Lol don't know what happened here but this is frosty

The Gfs 12z shows a showery trough dominating most of next week with heavy, slow moving thundery downpours and sunny spells but later next week the trough fills in situ and pressure starts to rise as a ridge builds in but just look at the temps next Saturday, way below average and a slight frost early Sunday! but then temps recovering on Sunday with sunny spells and mainly dry.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is a poor run if you want warm and fine weather, the week ahead as I mentioned in my previous post is very showery and gradually turning cooler from the north, especially later next week, next weekend looks drier and brighter but chilly on saturday and then into week 2 we do it all again with another showery trough..I'm looking for a late June heatwave but no luck with this run!

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm, both the GFS and GEM this afternoon try to build heights to our north east during week 2, but with very different results.

      

The GFS undercuts the ridge and we again are left with low pressure over the UK, this would be rather unlucky to say the least.

The GEM however....

      

Conditions turn drier and warmer with yet another spell of easterly winds, so the reverse NW/SE split at work here with warm and sunny weather in northern and western areas, the risk of low cloud or rain towards the south and east.

the GEFs ensemble suite doesn't give much guidance with a variation of results including some typical north/south splits, the reverse of this with low pressure to the south and some dry patterns UK wide. Given the day 5/6 charts it is quite easy to see how we could build another weak high to our north/north east which could lead to complications in terms of how the jetstream interacts with this high.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is better than the 12z gfs op, Next weekend shows a stronger looking ridge bringing a fine weekend and then the Azores high shows more influence, at least for the south of the uk, increasingly during week 2 .

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[knocker]

The GEFS 5 day anomaly in the medium term not looking too bad

 

[Summer Sun]

Not a great deal of change from ECM high pressure for the weekend this then stays over the south into the following week so any rain would be further north

[Matthew.]

The ECM 12z starting to look like it has the right idea with High Pressure to the south and Low pressure to the north. The Low heading for Iceland on D9 Temps don't look bad at all with Sw flow although I'm not sure if sea temps are above average in this area.

Edited June 11, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS 5 day anomaly in the medium term not looking too bad

 

Agreed knocker I don't think the medium term will be as poor as the gfs 12z op with its rinse and repeat of next weeks increasingly cooler and fresher, very showery cyclonic weather. I'm really looking for signs of what the met office is still indicating for the end of June and early July which sounds like very good summer weather, initially across the south and then eventually nationwide!!! got my fingers crossed. Last summer was pretty poor overall apart from that brief hot Spanish plume at the beginning of July, I hope this summer can do a lot better than that in the next 10 weeks!

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[Frosty.]

Where the hell is the Ecm 12z T+240.. lol

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Where the hell is the Ecm 12z T+240.. lol

Checked a number of sites its failed by the looks of it hopefully the ens will update around 21:30

[Frosty.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Checked a number of sites its failed by the looks of it 

Me too Gavin, it better be good now

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Me too Gavin, it better be good now

I'm liking the past few updates from ECM good to see the Azores high getting closer maybe its about to wake up

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Checked a number of sites its failed by the looks of it hopefully the ens will update around 21:30

Its on a knife-edge. Will the High move north like the 0z