Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Summer Sun]

The most noticeable difference between the 12z and 06z is the low in the Atlantic its gone from 985mb to 1000mb

12z

06z

A better run from GFS with the low getting shifted north again

Baby steps in the right direction again

Edited June 13, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The most noticeable difference between the 12z and 06z is the low in the Atlantic its gone from 985mb to 1000mb

12z

06z

A better run from GFS with the low getting shifted north again

Baby steps in the right direction again

Agreed SS,  IMO it's all to play for come the last week of June and then into July, some runs will continue to look flatter with a more suppressed Azores high but then others, hopefully an increasing number will show more of a sw / ne orientation which would give a  much better chance for the Az High to build in strongly. I think July will bring a very summery spell, at least to the southern half of the BI.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

More runs like this will surely increase confidence for a warmer anticyclonic spell through late June, the Gfs 6z and now the 12z show a nationwide summery spell in low res..hopefully a sign of things to come and there has been quite a few runs similar to this in recent days..Fingers crossed!

[northwestsnow]

Lovely 12z GFS, but its a pretty huge outlier against the ens set.

 

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely 12z GFS, but its a pretty huge outlier against the ens set.

 

Not huge. The op run is indeed the best run, but at least 10 other ensemble members are settled and warm/very warm during most of next week. Not many have troughs anywhere near the UK by T240:

so more like the 00Z ensemble set than the 06Z (which was much more changeable)

ECM looking very good by T168 - I'd expect a split trough to follow by T216 and the possibility of a plume - like so many other runs we've seen today across the ensemble range.

Edit: ECM T192 - beautiful angle on the left flank of the high to bring up something very hot for T216 / T240

Edited June 13, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

Nothing in the GEFS anomalies tonight that warrants any alteration to my previous assessment of the next 14 days.

[Summer Sun]

ECM brings back the high pressure on tonight's 12z

[Matthew.]

Yes SS once again a peach from the ECM

[Frosty.]

Lovely looking Ecm 12z this evening with increasingly warm anticyclonic weather developing next week, every bit as good if not better than the Gfs 12z!

[northwestsnow]

Yes, a beautiful ecm with HP firmly in charge..

Hope the meto change their tune...

Edited June 13, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

And a good strong finish to the Ecm 12z with warmth and sunshine for many, temps into the mid 20's celsius and an increasing risk of thundery showers for the south.. proper summer weather!

[Frosty.]

564 dam thicknesses. Nice! From T+168 the Ecm 12z is a PEACH

[northwestsnow]

ECM starts to look good from 144 so we can we have a bit of confidence now, but really want to metoffice update to be better tomorrow, im afraid its another morning of viewing charts from behind the old sofa !!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM starts to look good from 144 so we can we have a bit of confidence now, but really want to metoffice update to be better tomorrow, im afraid its another morning of viewing charts from behind the old sofa !!

It has been known for the MO updates to play catch up, hopefully this will be one of those occasions. I have to say I'm seeing a fair amount of evidence in the current output, from some of the operationals and pertubations and yesterday too to support an increasingly warm and settled spell at some point next week. :-)

[knocker]

ECM brings low pressure in from the west on day 10 with fronts traversing Cornwall Be afraid, be very afraid.

Edited June 13, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

ECM brings low pressure in from the west on day 10 with fronts traversing Cornwall Be afraid, be very afraid.

Looks fantastic moving foward with plenty of warmth and some stormsm at day 10 in the south west.

Tan tastic ecm /!!!!!

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

ECM brings low pressure in from the west on day 10 with fronts traversing Cornwall

Sidney wont like that! At least its Day 10. Do you think this is possible from the ECM Knocker?

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All! With my magnify glass the ten day outlook shows ecm and gfs at logger heads !!!! Ecm shows some classic thundery weather for southern Britain , gfs shows hot and dry ! I know which one I would prefer!!!

[Man With Beard]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nothing in the GEFS anomalies tonight that warrants any alteration to my previous assessment of the next 14 days.

Mean chart yes, clusters no. The mean is being flattened because of the mix of HP dominance, a few stalling troughs (with timing influences on the mean as they approach the UK) and a few that still keep the trough a little stronger. But virtually no charts on the GEFS tonight actually replicate the mean.

On to the ECM T216/T240, this morning I said I was looking out for a cut-off low that would lock in a heatwave - well the ECM very nearly goes and does it - any further south with the trough and we're in 1976 land - as it is, the ECM kind of snatches a slight defeat from the jaws of victory but it could still be hot for many all of next week if ti verified.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Mean chart yes, clusters no. The mean is being flattened because of the mix of HP dominance, a few stalling troughs (with timing influences on the mean as they approach the UK) and a few that still keep the trough a little stronger. But virtually no charts on the GEFS tonight actually replicate the mean.

 

 

Maybe not but the anomaly charts have been fairly consistent over the last few runs and not just dependent on this one so I await the EPS with interest.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

Maybe not but the anomaly charts have been fairly consistent over the last few runs and not just dependent on this one so I await the EPS with interest.

Didnt JH mention the other day that the anomaly charts had shifted from trough to dominated to HP dominated? I might have that wrong though..

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Didnt JH mention the other day that the anomaly charts had shifted from trough to dominated to HP dominated? I might have that wrong though..

Yes he did but it rather depends on what is meant by dominated. I wouldn't have said last night's EPS and NOAA were HP dominated but what do I know.

Edited June 13, 2016 by knocker

[Spah1]

36 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes he did but it rather depends on what is meant by dominated. I wouldn't have said last night's EPS and NOAA were HP dominated but what do I know.

Knocker why do you always end your posts with a statement that dismisses your knowledge and ability to forecast the weather. It's annoying. You know very well what you know and it's a lot more than most. Now where's the sun cream for next week☀️

[mb018538]

Someone is going to be very wrong, the meto are categorically saying tonight that low pressure is going to move back in after the brief ridge this weekend! The gfs is a huge hot outlier, and possibly the ECM too, so maybe we've just been spoilt again with the 12z output we can see not being true of the overall outcome. Prepare for potential disappointment....it's very much on the cards.

Edited June 13, 2016 by mb018538

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens seems to be following the beebs thought's with low pressure retuning after a fairly settled weekend

Edited June 13, 2016 by Summer Sun