Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

On the meto update on the bbc, Tomasz schafernaker has gone from yesterday showing high pressure dominating, to today saying only a brief ridge before things go rapidly downhill again? Doesn't seem to match any output I'm seeing...

I don't see anything particularly bad after next weekend's ridge of high pressure, at worst it would be normal summer weather, best in the south, worst in the north but if the Ecm 00z becomes a new trend.. flaming June awaits!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

On the meto update on the bbc, Tomasz schafernaker has gone from yesterday showing high pressure dominating, to today saying only a brief ridge before things go rapidly downhill again? Doesn't seem to match any output I'm seeing...

These broadcasts are recorded in advance so it was probably based on the current model output at the time of recording 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

On the meto update on the bbc, Tomasz schafernaker has gone from yesterday showing high pressure dominating, to today saying only a brief ridge before things go rapidly downhill again? Doesn't seem to match any output I'm seeing...

No the trend is absolutely towards fine, settled weather from Saturday onwards, too soon to call it "nailed" but it's going that way, just look at the GEFS members between T200 & T300 ( sorry can't post at the moment). BBC output - IMO - is often one step behind rather than ahead... but that's for another thread of course;)

[knocker]

The METO update certainly isn't going for high pressure domination up to the 26th but unsettled apart from the SE and seems in line with what this morning's ecm anomalies were indicating to my untutored eye.

Edited June 12, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

The METO update certainly isn't going for high pressure domination up to the 26th but unsettled apart from the SE and seems in line with what this morning's ecm anomalies were indicating to my untutored eye.

I was thinking of the 16-30 day range, it hasn't downgraded the chances of an increasingly warm anticyclonic further outlook into July so that's a plus

[Summer Sun]

Agreement between UKMO and GFS for high pressure to build at the end of the week how long the high lasts for who knows

[mb018538]

No comment on the 12z gfs?? Once the high builds its hot hot hot all the way!

[Frosty.]

Well this looks very good for week 2 on the Gfs 12z op run with high pressure taking over, I think most would be happy if we get this!

[Frosty.]

What a cracking end to the Gfs 12z

[Scorcher]

Some real eye candy from the GFS this evening, all in FI at the moment but the signs are good.

Those charts you posted Frosty- the surface temperature charts look very conservative in that setup- I suppose it's to be expected from the GFS though!

[Frosty.]

Just now, Scorcher said:

Some real eye candy from the GFS this evening, all in FI at the moment but the signs are good.

Those charts you posted Frosty- the surface temperature charts look very conservative in that setup- I suppose it's to be expected from the GFS though!

Yes scorcher but I'm just pleased to see a run like this from the Gfs 12z, hope we see the Ecm 12z build on this from the 00z in the next few hours.

Quote

 

 

[mb018538]

Very under done, easily get a 30c out of that, it will be nearly mid summer!

[Matthew.]

Yes as above the 12z is an absoulute peach! What will the ECM say though?

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Very under done, easily get a 30c out of that, it will be nearly mid summer!

It's seeing a pattern like that locking in I and many on here want to see, get that sorted and 30c + will soon follow.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Nurse, nurse, they are out of bed again.

I have to say there is not much anomalous on the 8-13 GEFS, We are still looking at a westerly upper flow with interactions between the northerly trough and the southerly HP so variable weather with the southern half of the UK getting the better of it.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

lots of chilly air to breathe before we get to this scorchio on the gfs 12z and that azores high is lookin so ripe 'n juicy, all it needs is just one big shove northwards and that's our summer sorted     

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, 40*C said:

lots of chilly air to breathe before we get to this scorchio on the gfs 12z and that azores high is lookin so ripe 'n juicy, all it needs is just one big shove northwards and that's our summer sorted     

I think knocker can give it a shove, with a bit of help from sidney

Edited June 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Sidney can't help he's got his own problems today.

[mb018538]

Very strange anomaly chart, higher heights covering most of the NH, with not much troughing at all. ECM looks nice tonight too!

[Summer Sun]

Lots of high pressure on this evenings ECM if this keeps up for another day or so the met office may start and come on board

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z follows through on its 00z potential, it even trumps the Gfs 12z earlier! 

This is very encouraging, hopefully it will firm up in the coming days! Comparing like for like, it's a major upgrade on last night's 12z ecm!..  BANK

[Man With Beard]

It's not quite ready to call a heatwave yet, in spite of these blistering runs from ECM/GFS tonight, but I'm very, very optimistic, because I'm sensing the models are in a cycle where they are over-estimating the Atlantic, not under-estimating. Consider these:

Which actually turned out as

And

Which now looks like

So I'm thinking this 

Could end up more like this

In fact, I'm beginning to expect it to turn out that way. But as only 8 out of 22 GEFS members currently have a hot and sunny scenario at this stage, still not ready to call it.

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

No the trend is absolutely towards fine, settled weather from Saturday onwards, too soon to call it "nailed" but it's going that way, just look at the GEFS members between T200 & T300 

Well man with beard you said this about 4 hours ago and looking at the gfs and ecm 12z, it's following your thoughts perfectly isn't it!

[Matthew.]

I better ring the BBC up and tell them to get that 21:55 update changed Wonderful charts tonight!

[Singularity]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/96_mslp500_arc.png?cb=954

Those areas of green just west of the U.S., over Newfoundland, and over the central Arctic all combine over the following 24 hours to produce an unusually deep trough across Canada/Greenland.

Its very much a matter of timing but at this short range it should be a done deal. It's enough to kick the pattern out of the retracted Azores High setup, the ridge leaping into Northern Europe as a powerful surge from the west is directed SW-NE by the deep trough while still NW of the U.K.

A shallower trough, as a result of not all of those lows combining, results in a more W-E jet which keeps the north more unsettled. Today we've trended away from that.

The longevity of the resultant UK/Euro High setup then depends largely on how GLAAM behaves. If it's spiralling down toward La Niña state then the ridge is likely to retract west again as per the 06z. A recovering GLAAM would instead allow the ridge to hold and also bring a significant chance of Spanish plume setups as the subtropical jet and/or current Atlantic SST pattern encourage low pressure development to the west of Iberia. The 12z ECM is a particularly good example of the puzzle pieces becoming to fall into such places.

I'd post more charts but in on my phone, as I will be until I return from holiday in two weeks time. You lot can enjoy your thundery downpours! That's the one thing I'll miss - though I'm not at all keen on the potential flash flooding. I hope nobody is subjected to such trauma.