Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

Nothing in the ecm and NOAA anomalies to suggest anything other than remaining unsettled for the 14 days, albeit not necessarily diabolical but normal fayre of rainy spells interspersed with drier and sunnier intervals with temps around average. The better weather the further to the SE you travel

The 6-10 shows a trough to the NW with HP western Atlantic and eastern Europe. thus a westerly upper flow.

 

The EPS 10-15 is not dissimilar to the NOAA

Edited June 13, 2016 by knocker

[johnholmes]

Yes, the anomaly charts have changed quite markedly over the past 3 days again, so the sttled spell is a brief affair before more changeable weather for most parts returns. Some signal for +ve height rises and slight ridging now shown (on the 6-10 NOAA) well to the NNE of the UK.

With such changes over the past 6-10 days I suspect that the anomaly charts are having just as much trouble in their time scale as we see with the synoptic ouputs. No doubt those with expertise beyond the 6-14 day time scale can help with, hopefully, a fairly short and easy to understand explanation - please?

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Knocker why do you always end your posts with a statement that dismisses your knowledge and ability to forecast the weather. It's annoying. You know very well what you know and it's a lot more than most. Now where's the sun cream for next week☀️

Humblest apologies Spah, I shall desist forthwith. But cancel the suncream

Edited June 13, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Humblest apologies Spah, I shall desist forthwith. But cancel the suncream

Too late, I went and bought some after the Gfs and Ecm 12z silly me

[William of Walworth]

Any hopes at all folks, of any shift back towards more HP influence, at least for the South, next week? Even a slight shift back with the trough being pushed back only a bit further North, might help for those preferring less rain in Somerset ... <prays>

I'm sure some posters here love these synoptic roller coaster rides, but for the last week of June especially, I'm no fan at all ...

 

ETA : The most recent runs posted on this thread seem to show quite an erm, dramatic switcharound. Not everything fully nailed on yet? I do appreciate that if the Met was sticking to its more unsettled guns throughout, they might all along have had a more accurate handle on it Still just about time for a possible further switch though?

Edited June 14, 2016 by William of Walworth

[knocker]

A brief up date of the latest EC32 anomaly means

As previously stated a brief interlude from the unsettled weather during the period 18th-20th as a transient ridge passes through. The trough to the NW/W then makes a brief appearance bringing more unsettled weather for a couple of days before the Azores HP becomes more influential starting around the 23rd. From here on in well into July this remains the case with weak troughing to the NW having some bearing on the general westerly flow. So this outlook is by no means bleak particularly for the south.

Regarding Glastonbury the timing is crucial as the week improves as it goes along but stick with J10's expert analysis for a more detailed guide.

Edited June 14, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

On the GFS 0z the deep Low over Iceland can't make it all the way to the Uk so at least things don't look wet and windy.

Edited June 14, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

This morning's GFS illustrates the point I was making above rather well. Which doesn't of course mean that this is how it will pan out.

[Summer Sun]

ECM has reverted back to what it had 24hrs ago with low pressure close by after the weekend

UKMO shows the high hanging on into Monday with low pressure closing in I'd expect it to turn unsettled by Tuesday

[mb018538]

Yeah much more consistency this morning, and as I suspected last night, we were spoiled with outliers or the best ensemble pick being the OP run skewing the reality. Looks like some mild zonal weather, with the best weather towards the south and east.

[coldcomfort]

I fear the low to the NW will be the bane of our lives next week, bringing a return to largely unsettled conditions after an all too brief respite this weekend. Looking at the ECM 240hr (for what it's worth at that range) it's very difficult to see a sustained rise of pressure developing across the remainder of June, even in the south, so for us lovers of fine, warm and settled conditions let's hope the GFS is rather more on the money. 

[knocker]

The ecm 5-10 anomaly has the upper trough to the NW of the UK, trough Mediterranean and HP eastern Europe ridging faintly into Scandinavia, Ergo unsettled westerly flow. Looking closer the trough weakens and the Scandinavian ridge strengthens and HP also strengthens in the western Atlantic but no incursion from the Azores HP.

Moving forward until the 29th the trough over the UK weakens but remains to the NW and with the HP still to the SW a westerly flow is maintained as is the unsettled weather with probably the much quoted N/S split as the two air masses interact.

[Frosty.]

We should focus on this weekend, The Gfs 00z shows a nice Azores ridge building across and the ridge holds in the south on sunday, dry across the s /se..a welcome window of pleasant weather!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows our current trough filling during the next 2 or 3 days and the remnants are shunted away to the east as a welcome Azores ridge builds across the uk bringing drier and brighter but cooler and fresher air southwards by the weekend, still the chance of a shower on saturday but much drier than we are currently seeing and I just wanted to mention saturday night because it looks cold and clear under the ridge with rural ground frost, maybe even a touch of air frost in prone spots which would be surprising in mid / late June. The south has the best of the sunshine and dry weather on sunday so a pleasant break from the constant showers. Next week shows a north / south split with high pressure ridging in close to the southwest / south which benefits southern England where it looks largely dry and warmer with sunny spells, still a risk of occasional rain but it looks progressively cooler and more unsettled further north but for southern Britain, and especially southern England it could be low 20's celsius and a lot of dry and bright weather next week!

[cheese]

Looks good for about 2 days down south but the overall picture looks pretty rubbish it has to be said.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Looks good for about 2 days down south but the overall picture looks pretty rubbish it has to be said.

I disagree, the Gfs 6z op run looks quite reasonable across at least southern england after this weeks trough fills and clears off and although it does look unsettled further north next week, I feel the 6z op is the worst case scenario...by the time next week comes, it could be rather better.

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I disagree, the Gfs 6z op run looks quite reasonable across at least southern england after this weeks trough fills and clears off and although it does look unsettled further north next week, I feel the 6z op is the worst case scenario...by the time next week comes, it could be rather better.

Well, it's a long way out in meteorological terms so subject to change. Admittedly this is the MOD thread and is for a UK-wide view of the weather outlook, but I can't get too excited about nice weather 200 miles away if it's still not nice here. Meh.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, cheese said:

Well, it's a long way out in meteorological terms so subject to change. Admittedly this is the MOD thread and is for a UK-wide view of the weather outlook, but I can't get too excited about nice weather 200 miles away if it's still not nice here. Meh.

Yes and I always  take a UK wide view rather than just being focused on west Yorkshire which would mean nothing to people in other parts of the UK 

[Matthew.]

Well by the looks of things from Monday temps certainly on the rise for central/southern areas in particular as a warm draw of Sw looks likely. Slightly above average temps look the name of the game so this month is going to come out a warm one Could be dry one too if the model outputs hold with the Nw getting the brunt.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, the Azores high (ridge) has a positive impact on the uk not only this weekend but also through next week, at least across the south of the BI, more so further south with at least some fine and warm weather but progressively more changeable / unsettled further north

Edited June 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and I always  take a UK wide view rather than just being focused on west Yorkshire which would mean nothing to people in other parts of the UK 

Fair enough, I just don't see why you're so upbeat about the weather when the outlook for our back yard isn't very good - does it really matter to you if it's 22C and sunny down south when it's 15C and cloudy in Wakefield? Plus I think the UK-wide view is poor and that most of us don't live in southern England so an accurate summary for the UK as a whole would be poor/unsettled.

Sorry, just seeing no reason to be optimistic. The outlook is largely bad for most of us and I don't see the point of putting a positive spin on it.

Edited June 14, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Fair enough, I just don't see why you're so upbeat about the weather when the outlook for our back yard isn't very good - does it really matter to you if it's 22C and sunny down south when it's 15C and cloudy in Wakefield? Plus I think the UK-wide view is poor and that most of us don't live in southern England so an accurate summary for the UK as a whole would be poor/unsettled.

It's because I'm a weather enthusiast, nuff said really

Edited June 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, the Azores high (ridge) has a positive impact on the uk not only this weekend but also through next week, at least across the south of the BI, more so further south with at least some fine and warm weather but progressively more changeable / unsettled further north

Can't really grumble at those charts yes, it could be better (further north), but lets face it, it could be a hell of a lot worse

[Frosty.]

Yes Gavin and looking at the GEFS 6z perturbations....I would like P2 thanks very much and there are others showing anticyclonic outcomes in the mid range so it's certainly not all doom and gloom, looks similar to yesterday's 6z.

[johnholmes]

To be fair to frosty he often posts a succession of charts along with his comments. A pity more folk don't do this. Charts showing the whole UK do help those just beginning to try and understand the models, or I would think so? Of course one can 'cherry pick' charts to suit but that soon becomes obvious when anyone does that over a fairly short period.

like he done above whilst I was typing!

 

Edited June 14, 2016 by johnholmes