Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yeah UKMO is stuck on t96 not far away from GFS as you say

UKMO looks much better out at t144 than the GFS Gavin, that really is by far the worst run I've seen from the GFS from any model- I imagine it's at the extreme end of what's possible next week.

[Matthew.]

It's looking much better from Sunday imo. Mainly a dry consensus away from the Nw. Temperatures look slightly above average all next week. This will be a pleasant change for the east. Nothing outstanding by any means but pleasant summer weather on the whole.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm a really poor GFS 12z this evening, cant see ukmo on wz after 96h but looks to be going the way of gfs, things seem to be going a bit downhill to me today..

The Gfs 12z improves a little in low res, from what I can see its the south which should see the driest and brightest, pleasantly warm spells  but generally it looks zonal / unsettled beyond the weekend ridge. Met office latest update indicates uncertainty in the outlook from next midweek onwards.

R. I. P. Jo Cox

[northwestsnow]

Nice one frosty hopefully ukmo will be better than stinker gfs

[mb018538]

UKMO is much better, but looks a bit odd - the Icelandic low just sort of sits there and disappears in situ. Not sure I buy that evolution. Either way, I think GFS must be one of the worst ensemble members, truly horrific.

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nice one frosty hopefully ukmo will be better than stinker gfs

Yes let's hope so mate hope the Ecm 12z is better than the gfs op.

[phil nw.]

GFS ens mean at the end of next week showing a suppressed Azores high and low pressure across the north.

No real change to yesterday's gefs really- changeable with some occasional Atlantic fronts interspersed with drier  and brighter interludes.As ever the better weather further south in this pattern. 

 

[Frosty.]

Yes Phil the Gefs 12z mean looks quite flat and zonal next week with a suppressed Azores high and low heights to the nw / n but the south should have some fair and pleasantly warm spells and further on there are signs that the Azores High is better orientated to ridge in towards the end of June which would hopefully bode well for early July.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

A look at day 5 on the UKMO-N.Hemisphere view

shows a very similar outlook as we go into next week with the Icelandic low and high pressure just too far south to keep things settled across the UK.

Just an overview of the expected pattern at this stage exact surface details can only be guessed at but with a weakish jet running across the UK it would be fair to say again that we should expect some attacks from the Atlantic at times but with spells of drier and brighter weather as well. 

[mb018538]

Very frustrating - low pressure covering pretty much the entire North Pole (which is what we want at this time of year), and we still can't get a nice bit of high pressure!

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z is a nice surprise at T+144 hours compared to the underwhelming Gfs 12z op with high pressure centred just to the east.

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Very frustrating - low pressure covering pretty much the entire North Pole (which is what we want at this time of year), and we still can't get a nice bit of high pressure!

Millibars 1015-1020 apart from Scotland. Higher pressure than lower though. 

[Frosty.]

As I mentioned, the Gefs 12z mean does improve beyond next week with the jet aligned sw / ne enabling the Azores high to ridge in across the UK during late June bringing drier, warmer and sunnier weather.

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly doesn't look that clever either and not a huge change for the next five days.

Edited June 16, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

Thankfully the ECM out to 144 is very similar to the UKMO - 850s at 12c in the SE mean it could potentially be mid twenties down here. Less settled in the NW. Hopefully the euro models have outgunned the GFS tonight.

[Matthew.]

The Low on the ECM gradually loses all its presence from Monday onwards. We end up in no mans land with light winds and good temps. Can't complain out to day 8

[northwestsnow]

Loving the Euro models tonight, ecm looks warm - potentially very warm for a time next week, esp so in the SE i would suggest.

Will we see the meto give up on the unsettled theme soon? They must be siding with the GFS as it stands which suprises me.

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Loving the Euro models tonight, ecm looks warm - potentially very warm for a time next week, esp so in the SE i would suggest.

Will we see the meto give up on the unsettled theme soon? They must be siding with the GFS as it stands which suprises me.

Even the Bbc are expecting reasonably settled and good conditions.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Matthew Wilson said:

Even the Bbc are expecting reasonably settled and good conditions.

I thought they were saying rainy next week from the posts i have read? Have you seen a recent broadcast Matthew?

ECM does look very good - warm continental air incoming at 120 tonight..

[Frosty.]

Well this looks as good as the Ecm 00z.. compared to the Gfs12z it's a big improvement with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius. The Euro models just like 24 hours ago are looking good next week.

[Matthew.]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I thought they were saying rainy next week from the posts i have read? Have you seen a recent broadcast Matthew?

ECM does look very good - warm continental air incoming at 120 tonight..

On the website type in any city northern England down and sunny/cloudy conditions are widespread tuesday+ They must be on a similar theme to the ECM. Temps high teens/low twenties.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Winter Cold]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Loving the Euro models tonight, ecm looks warm - potentially very warm for a time next week, esp so in the SE i would suggest.

Will we see the meto give up on the unsettled theme soon? They must be siding with the GFS as it stands which suprises me.

Hi

I dont think the meto take notice of the GFS, ever. They dont rate it at all. I remember Ian (BBC forecaster) saying something along those lines anyway. They just have lots more data/models to view than we do so make judgement call on what all that shows them at a given time.

11 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

On the website type in any city northern England down and sunny/cloudy conditions are widespread tuesday+ They must be on a similar theme to the ECM. Temps low twenties.

I think the website just pulls raw data from each UKMO run, so that will always change. I dont think it has any human input at all...

[knocker]

Nothing but persistent the ecm is still pushing the col at T144. It then moves a front in from the SW bringing rain in most areas and then a general area of instability moves north from France with a fair bit of convective activity on Thursday and which lingers until Saturday when systems from the Atlantic approach from the west once more. I'll believe this if it's still saying it on Sunday.

 

Edited June 16, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I thought they were saying rainy next week from the posts i have read? Have you seen a recent broadcast Matthew?

ECM does look very good - warm continental air incoming at 120 tonight..

The most recent LFR forecast from the beeb shows the jet stream running through the middle of the UK so the south would see the best weather but we also have a chance of importing some humid air from mainland Europe triggering off some thunderstorms

[Frosty.]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

ECM does look very good - warm continental air incoming at 120 tonight..

Yes it's a cracker, above average temps, generally low to mid 20's celsius across the southern half of the UK and reaching upper 20's c into the low 80's F across parts of the s / se at some point next week. We would all get some sunny spells but probably an increasing chance of thundery showers from the south later.