Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12z turns on the hairdryer with some seriously hot air moving north from Spain, ukmo not bad at all at 144 so im still scratching my head at this meto update which frankly looks and sounds nothing like the output im looking at!

[knocker]

I'm not sure why why you should be scratching as the METO update isn't based on one GFS run. And the seriously hot air is ten days away, lasts a day, and probably wont be there  at midnight.

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z turns on the hairdryer with some seriously hot air moving north from Spain, ukmo not bad at all at 144 so im still scratching my head at this meto update which frankly looks and sounds nothing like the output im looking at!

I think it's not far off....they still expect things to turn more unsettled after, and I'm inclined to agree. The GFS will be a huge outlier again, the ensemble cluster still favours something closer to the MetO update. As knocker says, it'll be gone by the 18z and tomorrow in all likelihood. The jet looks like pushing lows from the NW in our general direction, so I think anything settled will be fairly short lived. 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure why why you should be scratching as the METO update isn't based on one GFS run. And the seriously hot air is ten days away, lasts a day, and probably wont be there  at midnight.

 

Lasts a day? I think you must be looking at something different to me then.

And its not GFS in isolation, ukmo model shows no such thing as suggested by the metoffice update imho of course...;)

PS Add GEM to the list, its a stunner...:)

Edited June 17, 2016 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lasts a day? I think you must be looking at something different to me then.

And its not GFS in isolation, ukmo model shows no such thing as suggested by the metoffice update imho of course...;)

Okay post a chart which shows anything much above average before the 26th of June. It then shows this and this.

I think you are deliberately trying to mislead people

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Okay post a chart which shows anything much above average before the 26th of June. It then shows this and this.

I think you are deliberately trying to mislead people

And i think your a bit rude, i dont try to mislead anybody, i cant post charts on this stupid laptop, i can post ukmo and ecm charts but not gfs ones for some stupid reason.

The 12z GFS is warm/ hot across much of England - well in my opinion it is, temps in the mid to high 20's for me is warm to hot, thats not misleading anyone, is it?

PS what is the average temp for London in late june? Daytime temp? around 22? 

Edited June 17, 2016 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And i think your a bit rude, i dont try to mislead anybody, i cant post charts on this stupid laptop, i can post ukmo and ecm charts but not gfs ones for some stupid reason.

The 12z GFS is warm/ hot across much of England - well in my opinion it is, temps in the mid to high 20's for me is warm to hot, thats not misleading anyone, is it?

This is simply not true But I see we are now back to warm.

Quote

GFS 12z turns on the hairdryer with some seriously hot air

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op is even warmer than the 00z in low res and it ends better too with high pressure firmly in control. It's great to see such eye candy charts which begin in around a weeks time, however, i don't want to be accused of misleading anyone after this morning's accusation so i will just say enjoy these charts and hope for the best!

[cheese]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Okay post a chart which shows anything much above average before the 26th of June. It then shows this and this.

I think you are deliberately trying to mislead people

You said it lasted a day on this particular run - which is false. You either knew that or couldn't be bothered checking.

Chart for the 26th:

Chart for the 27th:

Chart for the 28th:

This may all be gone by tonight, but what the GFS currently shows lasts a little longer than 24 hours.

PS, the last chart keeps on getting resized to a very small image and I don't know why. 

Edited June 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

This is simply not true

 

Accusing me of mis leading people is not true.

[northwestsnow]

Anyway, lets not bicker of definition of warm or hot, the 12z's look much more favourable for summery weather across much of the UK, as my old mate frosty says, BANK!!:D

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, cheese said:

You said it lasted a day on this particular run - which is false. You either knew that or couldn't be bothered checking.

Chart for the 26th:

Chart for the 27th:

Chart for the 28th:

This may all be gone by tonight, but what the GFS currently shows lasts a little longer than 24 hours. 

PS, the last chart keeps on getting resized to a very small image and I don't know why. 

It comes as no surprise to me that two days a fair bit above average (okay I'll concede that) T24O- to T288 warrants

"GFS 12z turns on the hairdryer with some seriously hot air moving north from Spain"

And are we not allowed to question posts now.

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyway, lets not bicker of definition of warm or hot, the 12z's look much more favourable for summery weather across much of the UK, as my old mate frosty says, BANK!!:D

Indeed, and nobody could accuse me of not backing up my posts with charts...I've already posted over 50 charts today alone! Bank

[Polar Maritime]

Ok. Can we please continue with sensible discussion. Thanks.

[Nouska]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Ok. Can we please continue with sensible discussion. Thanks.

I get your point but don't feel at all sensible after that GFS run  ....

....come over all giddy at the prospect of some hot sunshine and real summer weather!

 

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is also a peach if you like warmth and sunshine and it is under a week away, just like the ukmo so we are not talking about deep Fi here, the Gfs 12z warmth arrives in the south next thurs / fri so I'm happy with the 12z runs. Just hoping the Ecm 12z makes it a full house!

[mb018538]

For the sake of balance...

 

It's probably no surprise the 12z op was sort of a warm outlier.....in the fact that the greater cluster is still below 10c, but it's not entirely without support for a warm/hot outcome. There is already ensemble divergence as early as day 3, and a wide spread by day 6, so anything after then should be taken with a truckload of salt.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

For the sake of balance...

 

It's probably no surprise the 12z op was sort of a warm outlier.....in the fact that the greater cluster is still below 10c, but it's not entirely without support for a warm/hot outcome. There is already ensemble divergence as early as day 3, and a wide spread by day 6, so anything after then should be taken with a truckload of salt.

Good post  Plenty of options on the table for next week, im hoping the high is durable ..

[Matthew.]

Great post Mb ECM 12z beginning to emerge up to day 5 and day 5 looks fairly warm I'm guessing with pressure 1020mb for northern England down. Ps I would post charts but my phone won't let me

[mb018538]

Yeah ECM isn't quite as good as the UKMO with a bit more troughing.....but isn't too bad in the mid term. 10c isotherm clipping the SE by midweek.

[knocker]

Hair drier treatment applied to the Ukraine.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hair drier treatment applied to the Ukraine.

Fantastic chart for Europe and even good old Blighty is above average temp wise, good to see ..;)

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hair drier treatment applied to the Ukraine.

Yes and that silver shading i was asking about earlier

[northwestsnow]

Nope, not much sign of the wind and rain the meto keep banging on about on the ecm either,out to 168 anyway..so thats ECM/GEM/UKMO/GFS and the kitchen sink not showing what the meto are suggesting for next week, utterly bizarre imho.

[northwestsnow]

Reasonable ECM this evening with some warm air around, esp the further south and east you go.Generally low 20's for the south - hints the Atlantic is about to get lively as we head through next weekend with perhaps some unsettled stuff reaching NW Britain.

All in all though i'd suggest next week will be better than the current one!

HOT OF THE PRESS!!

Local forecaster just said sun returning by tues and i quote, 'it could last a while', sounds positive for warm weather fans, and thats the north west lol

Edited June 17, 2016 by northwestsnow