Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

That's a very encouraging Ecm 12z longer term with high pressure getting a foothold across the south of the UK. In the meantime, the south / southeast warm up and become much more humid through midweek, especially thursday when it's set to turn very thundery with torrential downpours and then through Friday and into the weekend there is a shallow trough / weakness on top of the UK with sunshine and heavy slow moving showers, again with thunder but then a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west and sets up a much more pleasant spell, especially across the southern half of the UK but even central and northern parts improve too..hope it happens!

[knocker]

The 6-10 anomalies tonight are not totally gloomy. The upper trough which the bane of our weather at the moment retreats to the Iceland area allowing HP more influence certainly in the southern half of the UK. It could also allow developments to the south moving north as has been seen recently. So still unsettled in the north with outbreaks of rain from systems passing to the NW but warmer and drier down south with possible thundery outbreaks but that is pure speculation at this stage but certainly not looking too bad.

In the 10-15 period things tend to downhill with the trough regaining more influence at the expense of the HP to the south although we are still looking at the N/S split scenario and it would be a bit foolish to pin too much this at this stage regarding a hard and fast outlook.

Edited June 20, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows better prospects next week and at times further ahead too with the Azores high ridging into the southern half of the UK bringing largely  fine / warm conditions. Further north / northwest it looks less settled and relatively cooler with sunshine mixed with rain and showers. It looks like an oscillating pattern (ebb and flow) with the Azores high occasionally retreating which allows the more unsettled weather further NW to spread south eastwards but then there is support for another push from the Azores high (ridge) into early July, at least further south.  

Edited June 20, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Much more encouraging output from both the GFS and UKMO this morning. Less low pressure influence, with high pressure making regular incursions. Still a way off for certainty, but looking ok, and a lot better than it did 2 days ago.

[knocker]

A quick glance at the latest EC32 means update

Starting with this week as it’s not without interest.  The upper pattern is very mobile and by Friday ooz there is strong ridging mid Atlantic up to Greenland and also central Europe with a cut off upper low west of Scotland with associated trough south to Corunna. Thus some interesting surface options for the south best left to the other models.

The trough rapidly declines over the weekend and the Azores HP becomes more influential bringing some drier and more settled weather to most.

But this pattern is nothing if not mobile and by Wednesday the 29th the upper trough is once more on the scene to the NW with the Azores HP back in the western Atlantic so from here until the 6th July we have the very familiar N/S split with most of the Atlantic systems traversing to the north.

From here until the 18th a rather indeterminate westerly pattern with the Azores HP out to the SW which could lead to much of the same but frankly I would put this under pending at the moment.

Edited June 21, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The unstable LP area moves NE tomorrow and is over the SE of England by 12z Thursday. Some interesting developments for the south and east best left to the other thread. This moves away to the NE but more general showery rain affects most of the north on Friday associated with the shallow low drifting in from the NW. After that it's a bit of a dogs dinner but generally speaking the Azores ridge becomes more prominent with the N.S split next week. Not really any point in looking further.

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

ECM follows suit, ridge of high pressure holds on throughout. Ties in nicely with the metO thinking, better the further S and E you head. The N/W at risk of slightly more unsettled conditions, but not desperately so.

[knocker]

The ecm has the area of instability a tad further east on Thursday and the other low tracking more easterly. All on a knife edge regarding the extent of the convective activity.

Edited June 21, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM follows suit, ridge of high pressure holds on throughout. Ties in nicely with the metO thinking, better the further S and E you head. The N/W at risk of slightly more unsettled conditions, but not desperately so.

Yes nothing to cry about at all for the next 10 days from the GFS and ECM. Ridges of HP at least.

[northwestsnow]

Well, all in all in my humble opinion thats the best set of 00z runs so far this summer with a pretty strong signal from UKMO/ECM that high pressure will rule the roost from around 120 onwards.

GFS goes onto deliver a stunning run with a protracted warm and settled spell, momentum gathering for some lovely summer weather?

ukmo 120 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

ukmo 144 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

ECM 120 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

ECM 144 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

ECM 168 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

 

Edited June 21, 2016 by northwestsnow

[thestixx]

Hi everyone, it's been a long time since I last posted on here, but as a long term lurker I'm seeing some pretty good signals for our summer.... High pressure is in an abundance which is always good news for heat lovers like me. I might be off kilter here but are there any similarities with 2003 with regards to the scale of HP ridging in the from the Atlantic/Azores?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, thestixx said:

Hi everyone, it's been a long time since I last posted on here, but as a long term lurker I'm seeing some pretty good signals for our summer.... High pressure is in an abundance which is always good news for heat lovers like me. I might be off kilter here but are there any similarities with 2003 with regards to the scale of HP ridging in the from the Atlantic/Azores?

Welcome

For me, its too early to be thinking 2003, that would be amazing though!

As it stands i think there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic but until we get agreement at 72h i won't be getting too carried away, so many times be it winter or summer i have seen glorious charts at 120 for it all to evaporate in the blink of an eye, essentially there is a 'tug of war' going on with the azores high getting pulled west and the door opening to the Atlantic, or as we see on this mornings runs, enough eastwards movement to hold of the lows to the north west.

Actually, GEM shows the first option this morning with the high getting dragged far enough west for the troughs to attack.

So, fingers crossed, but as Nick Sussex, if anything can go wrong for the UK it generally will, so lets hope on this occasion we get a bit of luck, METO updates will be important so look for something a bit more positive from the pros today, i'm always hugely sceptical of whatever the GFS/UKMO/ECM show if the metoffice boys and girls are not 'onside'..

[knocker]

Well I must admit I don't view the ecm run as anything to get excited about as it's very much a N/S split run.

And the GEFS anomaly is not exactly overwhelming There is a period between T144 and T216 where the Azores is the main player but the overall picture is not a great deal different to last night with the trough parked to the NW and HP to the SW. Ergo a westerly upper flow giving variable weather conditions over the UK (yes a N/S split) with temps around average.

[Gordon Webb]

52 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has the area of instability a tad further east on Thursday and the other low tracking more easterly. All on a knife edge regarding the extent of the convective activity.

not a surprise to see a eastward movement , this seems to happen often in these types of things , of course still time to go yet

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I must admit I don't view the ecm run as anything to get excited about as it's very much a N/S split run.

And the GEFS anomaly is not exactly overwhelming There is a period between T144 and T216 where the Azores is the main player but the overall picture is not a great deal different to last night with the trough parked to the NW and HP to the SW. Ergo a westerly upper flow giving variable weather conditions over the UK (yes a N/S split) with temps around average.

Well i will agree to disagree then as i view ECM as a really nice run, i suppose its all about opinion and debate so no worries on that front, in my opinion ECM is settled for the vast majority and increasingly warm to boot, of course it may be an outlier in its ens suite

edit looking the ecm 0z mean, it would seem the op will be on the warmer side of the suite with more of a n/s split as alluded to by knocker ..

Edited June 21, 2016 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

Unfortunately with the centre of the Azores high stretched out to the west, the UK won't get anything overly hot/settled. We need the low to pull back west a tad, the high to shift east, and then we're in business. That said, it doesn't look too bad really. Temps around average, and from an IMBY point of view, looks reasonable, so I wont complain!

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm anomalies there is a brief period after T132 when ridging from the Azores is the main player but from the end of that period to day 14 the trough takes over and the indications are unsettled. Anyway

 

Edited June 21, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Good news from the Gefs 00z mean with the Azores high ridging across southern uk next week, indeed, despite some ebb and flow it never looks bad for the south and there is another surge from the Azores high during early July, again, more so across the southern half of the uk but that's not to say the north won't enjoy spells of fine and warm weather too.

[mb018538]

The GFS 6z is also pretty good out to day 9/10, with high pressure moving across the country, and temperatures up to the mid to high twenties. Could be another warm outlier.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op turns into a peach of a run for the southern half of the uk with the Azores high ridging in from the start of next week, a fantastic start to Wimbledon if that happens with increasingly warm and sunny conditions, a thundery breakdown later next week followed by an even stronger anticyclone through early july which brings nationwide warmth and sunshine. In the meantime, turning warmer and more humid in the south through midweek with thunderstorms in the s / se on wed / wed night and through thursday. A showery trough / weakness over the uk on fri into Saturday before the high ridges in... some great charts here!

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 6z mean shows strong support for the Azores high to ridge across the south of the UK from the end of this week onwards with increasingly dry, warm and sunny weather across England and Wales, as I said before, this would be great news for Wimbledon with temps next week rising towards 27c 81f before a thundery breakdown but the 6z mean shows another reboot with the Azores high building in again through early July so hopefully we are now on track for a more summery outlook!

[Summer Sun]

After the chance of some thundery showers later this week ECM shows high pressure moving back during Sunday and this continues into next week

Good news for the start of Wimbledon as well

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Moving into the 2nd month of Summer an the models continue to tease for something warmer than average...Its similar to Winter fare, everything from the models getting watered down as it arrives in the reliable timeframe......The mid range models aren't fantastic for anything extreme either

The Ecm 12z is fantastic for the south / southeast with plenty of very warm weather, lots of sunshine and some thunderstorms to.. wish I lived down there, I would love it!

[Captain Shortwave]

The models suggesting that heights to our east will persist for quite some time, as a consequence the west/north westerly flow suggested by the models a few days ago has tended to recede with more of a west/south west flow with warmer than average conditions in the south as well as plenty of fine and settled weather with the north more unsettled with teperatures near average.

GFS ens

      

The ECM looks pretty decent for a time next week

      

With the 12C isotherm over the south in particular for a fair amount of time, temperatures in the mid to high twenties would be possible if we could get a solid ridge building next week. Even the GFS with the jet further south has temperatures widely into the low twenties so nothing too bad.

Overall whilst there are no signs of a heatwave or widespread settled conditions, it is far from a disaster with quite a bit of fine and warm weather possible, more so in the south.

As Nouska says below, there is one issue with this weeks trough and the fact that we still don't have agreement on the track.

Edited June 21, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Nouska]

Short term disagreement on what happens to this 'polka dot' of low heights. ARPEGE now agreeing with the GFS in taking it down to France.

             

The ECM and UKMO move it on swiftly to the Scandinavian area.