Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[William of Walworth]

Any chance of a non-washout Glastonbury (mid-Somerset) next week folks? Everything still looks far too uncertain!

 

I'm onsite down there from Sunday (19th) onwards .... and out of the house/completely offline from about 9 am tomorrow (Fri 17th)

 

I'm glad England won this afternoon,  but these latest outputs are so mixed that I fear the worst ....

[knocker]

I shouldn't think anyone is prepared to stick their neck out for the end of next week WoW but pretty safe that Monday will be wet.

[phil nw.]

Just a reminder to please just put your own views of the models.A few posts are going off topic and discussing the Met Office/BBC forecasts for which there are separate threads.

Thanks all 

[phil nw.]

ECM mean for a week today NH view

again similar to the  GFS ens showing the Azores high held at bay and the Icelandic trough to the north west.Thus a westerly pattern with changeable conditions for the UK.The warmest and driest weather likely further south at times although at a guess most areas will be prone to some effect from Atlantic fronts with the jet currently modeled across the UK next week.

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm and NOAA tonight it's not that easy to agree with the gfs or ecm ops. It would appear that the weather should improve as the trough to the NW declines particularly in the southern half of the UK with temps just a little above normal. This still isn't done deal by any means but something along these lines would appear to be the percentage play at the moment.

 

[knocker]

A brief look at the latest EC32 means keeping in mind the models seem to be struggling at the moment

Next Tuesday sees a deep upper low Iceland with trough running south and SW flow covering the UK; ergo very unsettled.

But this low/trough rapidly declines and by Friday sees a large area of high pressure mid Atlantic thus veering the upper flow W/NW and drier and more settled conditions pertain which would be good for Glastonbury.

But this is a very mobile pattern and by Tuesday 28th the next trough to the NW is in play backing the wind a tad and bringing more unsettled weather to the north although the south shouldn’t be too bad.

I’m a bit loathe to go much further with this given the uncertainty involved and no strong signal but up to around July 10th this interplay between the LP to the NW and HP to the W/SW seems to be the order of the day thus a typically varied weather pattern over the UK with perhaps the north more prone to rain outbreaks and temps around average.

So the GFS this morning.

Well after a wet start to the week it's decided to join the ecm and and move a slack area of instability north into the UK Thursday before HP exerts itself for the weekend  with some quite warm temps. Be bold, be very bold.

Edited June 17, 2016 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning (in isolation) is showing some hot settled summer conditions towards the end of the Month, As high pressure pushes up over the Uk from the S/E with max temps touching 27/28/29c over a vast swathe of the UK, Bar the far N/W Scotland.. 

Obviously under these synoptic's the Cape is rather high to say the least.. 

  

Edited June 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Wow, just Wow, what an Epic Gfs 00z in low res just look how that very warm / hot spell blossoms. Wonderful charts!..Bank

[Frosty.]

In the meantime, what's this! a ridge of high pressure at the weekend 

Today is the last day of flash floods / thunderstorms in southern england. It looks quieter in the next few days with more in the way of dry and bright weather, still a few light showers around in the south tomorrow and then persistent rain spilling in off the Atlantic into the far west on Sunday.

[knocker]

The ecm still running with the unstable area pushing north Weds/Thursday into the col area and then attempting to build the ridge but fails as unsettled westerlies push in again over the weekend. This trough/HP battle is an ongoing theme. Bank.

[joggs]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow, just Wow, what an Epic Gfs 00z in low res just look how that very warm / hot spell blossoms. Wonderful charts!..Bank

Low res.What about a balanced view?.

Might be seen as leading people down the garden path.Yes it's what it shows at the time but there's other charts that show the opposite for that time frame.Wouldn't be a crime to balance it out imo.

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, joggs said:

Wouldn't be a crime to balance it out imo.

Please feel free, Frosty was only describing the GFS in isolation, Just like mine above.

Edited June 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, joggs said:

Low res.What about a balanced view?.

Might be seen as leading people down the garden path.Yes it's what it shows at the time but there's other charts that show the opposite for that time frame.Wouldn't be a crime to balance it out imo.

What are you on about, read what I said! I didn't say it's going to happen, I just said it looks nice. At least i post charts and only describe what they show!

[Man With Beard]

Can anyone remember the last time we had model agreement at D6?? Seems a long time ago. Early next week finally coming together - the GFS, completely alone at points this week, seems to have picked the pattern well for the start of the week - rain Monday, clearing up Tuesday. Most models then give us a couple of warm days (away from the north). Then the divergence is back for the end of the week. ECM still looking at a thundery breakdown, but GFS this morning cuts the tough off to our SW, leading to a heatwave. The GFS is way out of kilter even with its own ensembles, but this week has proved once again, never discount it!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a warm spell next week, even very warm for a while in the south / southeast and increasingly humid with a risk of thundery activity but sunny spells too, temps generally low to mid 20s celsius and touching the low 80s F in the s / se...it cools off later but next week looks warmer than average, at least further south.

[Matthew.]

Hi Frosty. I noticed on your post earlier the red indicated the high twenties but silver shading over southern France south. What temps does this indicate?

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Hi Frosty. I noticed on your post earlier the red indicated the high twenties but silver shading over southern France south. What temps does this indicate?

Is this what your on about?

If so that's in the mid 30's some parts of inland Spain would be into the low 40's potentially

Edited June 17, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Hi Frosty. I noticed on your post earlier the red indicated the high twenties but silver shading over southern France south. What temps does this indicate?

Hi Matthew, I would say low 30's celsius, low 90's F, perhaps mid 90's in favoured spots on the Gfs 00z op for southern France but hotter still further south, into the 40s c low 100s F

Edited June 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

Thankyou. I tried to post the chart in isolation but it kept deleting the lot 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op doesn't show an FI heatwave like the 00z op but it does show a lot of pleasant / rather warm weather during the next few weeks, warmest across the southern half of the uk and especially across southern / eastern England. Looking at the next few days, a ridge of high pressure pushes east across the UK with more in the way of dry and bright / sunny weather, still a risk of a few showers tomorrow across the south / southeast but nowhere near the intensity of recently and currently in the south. Things go downhill in the far west on sunday as a band of persistent rain, some of it heavy, spills in off the Atlantic. That band of rain sweeps east across the uk on sunday night and clears the east coast on monday morning followed by sunshine and showers but not the deluges some of us have seen.

The outlook beyond that looks changeable with some rain and showers mixed with spells of sunshine, breezy too with temps around average but eventually pressure rises further south with drier, sunnier and warmer weather with temps into the low 20s c, the coolest temps and most of the rain / showers across the northwest of the BI with the best of the warmth and sun further s / se where temps could push towards the mid 20s c so it's not a bad run in my opinion.

[johnholmes]

6 hours ago, joggs said:

Low res.What about a balanced view?.

Might be seen as leading people down the garden path.Yes it's what it shows at the time but there's other charts that show the opposite for that time frame.Wouldn't be a crime to balance it out imo.

How about, instead of reposting a set of charts with comments at the end, you post your charts to show the 'balanced' view as you call it?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

id ignore the 00z - ensembles mean is much cooler and follows the zonal cooler ECMs

[northwestsnow]

Well after a pretty poor week for many the good news is next week is hopefully looking better, certainly a good few degrees warmer - GFS12Z is an improvement in the reliable timeframe - we await the ukmo for some agreement hopefully..

[mb018538]

UKMO shows it pretty warm indeed in the SE by 120-144 hours. More unsettled and cooler the further NW you head. After that, anything could happen, so I'm not paying too much attention that far ahead.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO shows it pretty warm indeed in the SE by 120-144 hours. More unsettled and cooler the further NW you head. After that, anything could happen, so I'm not paying too much attention that far ahead.

Yes the ukmo 12z imports warmer and more humid continental air into the south of the uk next week, closer to average further north...could become very warm in the s / se with temps close to 80F and we should all see sunny spells after a wet start to the week but with scattered heavy showers with an increasing chance of thunderstorms in the south.