Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Reasonable ECM this evening with some warm air around, esp the further south and east you go.Generally low 20's for the south - hints the Atlantic is about to get lively as we head through next weekend with perhaps some unsettled stuff reaching NW Britain.

All in all though i'd suggest next week will be better than the current one!

Agreed, and here are the charts 

[northwestsnow]

Very happy with all the output this evening, ecm in the end looks warm and potentially muggy/thundery esp across southern britain.

The metoffice will shift tomorrow imho.:)

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with all the output this evening, ecm in the end looks warm and potentially muggy/thundery esp across southern britain.

The metoffice will shift tomorrow imho.:)

I'm also happy with the 12z operational output overall, especially the gfs/gem and ukmo, 3 out of 4 ain't bad and I'm thinking now that next week will at the very least be a warm one, especially the further south you are.

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly has a trough to the NW and HP to the east and the western Atlantic. Ergo the upper flow WNW and thus unsettled but more so in the north with the south getting some drier and warmer weather. In the 10-14 period, although not particularly anomalous, the trough remains in the NW and with the Atlantic HP declining a tad the upper flow may back a little. This still portends unsettled weather fron the Atlantic but still favouring a N/S split

[knocker]

All the anomalies tonight are on the same vis the distribution of the trough and HP centres. This portends an upper flow from the WNW/W with the likelihood of a N/S split with the more unsettled weather traversing the north and west with the drier and sunnier weather to the SE. Of course the surface detail still has to be resolved within this pattern

Perhaps one should note the movement of the upper trough is quite fluid and during this movement there is the odd day where it's influence declines thus the surface HP will affect more of the UK. The ecm 5-10 temps are average in the north and slightly above in the south.

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

An interesting GFS18z, the Azores high from day 5 to 16 basically parks itself in the same place and just stays there. Strong evidence of a westerly dominated pattern if that's the case though with the troughs and transient ridge extensions fighting it out.

[knocker]

A brief resume of this morning's GFS

The front is through and over the North Sea by Monday morning leaving the UK in a fresh, showery westerly.

Thereafter the Azores ridge edges in, which would be good news for Glastonbury, before the N/S split at the weekend with LP to the NW and HP to the SW.

Temps on the whole around average perhaps a little above in England.

[knocker]

The ecm is not a million miles from the GFS this morning. It's still bringing the area of instability north on Thursday but on more of a NE track so into the North Sea. Thus it also builds the ridge from the SW until the Atlantic pops back in on Sunday.

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is not a million miles from the GFS this morning. It's still bringing the area of instability north on Thursday but on more of a NE track so into the North Sea. Thus it also builds the ridge from the SW until the Atlantic pops back in on Sunday.

Not as keen on ecm this morning, longer term it brings the Atlantic into play..

GEFS ens look mixed although majority of members bring a mini plume across the south around the 22nd/23rd

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not as keen on ecm this morning, longer term it brings the Atlantic into play..

There still remains room for manoeuvre on this I would imagine as the timing and distribution of the interplay between the LP and HP is going to be tricky.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

There still remains room for manoeuvre on this I would imagine as the timing and distribution of the interplay between the LP and HP is going to be tricky.

Agreed knocker, ecm seems to want to drag the azores high into the western Atlantic opening the door to troughs from the north west.

 

[summer blizzard]

Once again the GFS parks the high west of the Azores and then just keeps it there the entire run. The Euro shows what happens when that ridge starts to amplify.

[northwestsnow]

59 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Once again the GFS parks the high west of the Azores and then just keeps it there the entire run. The Euro shows what happens when that ridge starts to amplify.

Yes there does seem a trend to pull the az high west on the 00z runs,leaving us at the mercy of troughs moving in from the north west.

[mb018538]

I feared that scenario might happen the last couple of days....could be a bit drab and unsettled for a while if the trough gets pushed SE towards us. Have to hope for some interference that prevents the Azores high migrating up to the NW.

[Summer Sun]

Its looking quite hot in France from mid week as for the UK its high teens low 20's

[DR(S)NO]

Any idea of the weather conditions to go with that French heat SS?

Is there the possibility of more violent storms for them?

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Any idea of the weather conditions to go with that French heat SS?

Is there the possibility of more violent storms for them?

Its certainly possible

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, DR(S)NO said:

Any idea of the weather conditions to go with that French heat SS?

Is there the possibility of more violent storms for them?

This is what Météociel are saying for my part of France:

http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances/31908/saint_sulpice_lauriere.htm

Looks like an interesting week if it comes off!

[damianslaw]

As we move into summer proper, we see a very typical outlook, the classic NW-SE split emerging with the azores high playing with us, but not at least for the time being in a way which will deliver sustained warm settled conditions away from occasional flirts with the SE..all very normal service, and quite underwhelming in my opinion, hence perhaps time to take a break from model watching.

The northern hemisphere typically settles into its summer base state in late June, and trends are often set for the remainder of the summer, i.e. interaction of the azores high and the jetstream. The models are showing the flow backing more WNW as we end June with no strong ridging, with the trough squeezing down across the UK propped into position by strong heights to our east, its a pattern that can take some shifting, more so as we enter the depths of summer than in early summer. 

I'm not sensing a July 2013 or 2014 is on the cards.

[MP-R]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As we move into summer proper, we see a very typical outlook, the classic NW-SE split emerging with the azores high playing with us, but not at least for the time being in a way which will deliver sustained warm settled conditions away from occasional flirts with the SE..all very normal service, and quite underwhelming in my opinion, hence perhaps time to take a break from model watching.

The northern hemisphere typically settles into its summer base state in late June, and trends are often set for the remainder of the summer, i.e. interaction of the azores high and the jetstream. The models are showing the flow backing more WNW as we end June with no strong ridging, with the trough squeezing down across the UK propped into position by strong heights to our east, its a pattern that can take some shifting, more so as we enter the depths of summer than in early summer. 

I'm not sensing a July 2013 or 2014 is on the cards.

I partly agree and partly disagree. Late June often sees a change in weather pattern but it very rarely sets the tone for the rest of the summer. How about the summers where June and July are below par only for an improvement in August or vice versa. Hopefully this year won't be as drastic as 1992 given May/June haven't come close to that year, especially June.

Regardless, a look into the current FI reveals no particular weather dominating - a slack fare which could go in either direction:

 

[Frosty.]

I think the south and southeast will become warmer and more humid for a time later next week with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius as continental air drifts north as shown on the Ecm 00z and there is also likely to be an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms with sunny spells between. The further northwest you are it looks relatively cooler with sunshine and showery rain.

Edited June 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Looking like we won't see much higher than 23c really, and potentially stormy to go with it in the SE. I'm already getting a bit worried about late June/early July, I've got a nasty feeling the trough is going to pull SE towards us, and pressure is going to rise in the Greenland area.

[phil nw.]

To be fair the ens through the last few days have been favouring a north /south type setup in a weakish westerly pattern and today's outputs should be no surprise really.

It still leaves room for some bright and warm interludes especially in central and southern parts of the Uk but we will see some Atlantic fronts coming through at times but often in this pattern they weaken as they come south with some places seeing minimal rainfall.

This is the type of pattern often seen in many UK Summers at times but i don't believe at this stage it sets the tone for the rest of the season.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows the southern half of the uk and especially the southeast becoming warmer and more humid for a time around the midweek period (wed / thurs) with temps generally into the low 20's c and as high as 25/26c in the s / se with sunny spells but with an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms which would be a repeat of what some of us have just had but with higher temps. Further NW it looks cooler throughout with sunny intervals and some rain / showers. It turns cooler everywhere from next Friday.

Edited June 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

For the end of the week UKMO shows high pressure centered out in the Atlantic but close enough to keep the UK settled