Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

An update from hirlam on tonight's severe weather across the southeastern quadrant. Violent thunderstorms are now crossing the channel and tonight the above zone will have large hail, frequent lightening and as much as 2 inches of rain in an hour locally. Not everyone in the SE will see it but where it is bad it could be very bad with flooding in places.. and then following a lull from around mid morning to late afternoon tomorrow, the SE looks like taking another bashing....be prepared, I'm actually jealous because it looks benign in most other areas!

[phil nw.]

Yes the change to the Atlantic westerly setup looks like coming through by Sunday as the last of the humid,thundery air moves away from the south east quarter.

GFS12z T96hrs.

then going forward it does look changeable with the Icelandic trough holding sway with fronts coming se through the week

A glance at the 3 op runs for day 6 show quite a brisk westerly pattern

the jet stream again modeled across our latitude so the coming week does look mixed to say the least with temperatures again nothing to write home about as we chase any sunny interludes between the cloud and rain or showers from those frontal systems.

As Frosty points out,areas further south, look more favoured for any decent drier and bright interludes closer to any transient ridging.At the moment there is no real sign of a prolonged spell of high pressure with our friend over the Azores keeping his distance on this evening's models.  

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[mb018538]

ECM is also disappointing, the low at 168 hours looks more like something out of Autumn than the middle of summer. Pretty unsettled run really, and no signs of things settling down. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows the current warm and very humid thundery weather across the southeastern quadrant not finally clearing the SE corner until Friday morning and then we have a flabby trough in situ for a few days with sun and heavy slow moving showers with the trough only slowly filling with the remnants being shunted away to the east as a ridge of high pressure extends across southern England from the west which takes us into next week which looks changeable but with some fair and warm spells in the south, especially southern and southeast england and particularly later next week but progressively cooler and more unsettled further n / nw, the end of the run looks cooler and unsettled but in the short term there is really extreme weather about to hit the SE.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

Normal service outlook, broadly westerly pattern dominating, with the trough exerting more influence than any ridge development - classic weak ridge/strong trough scenario - that often embeds itself as the summer wears on (less so at this early stage in the summer though). Models are showing quite a strong trough formation early next week with some cool uppers mixed in, northern parts set to fayre worse, with below average late June temps, nearer average for the south.

 

No signal or slightest hint of any sustained warm dry weather for the foreseeable, but plenty of summer to go.. preferably such a spell occurs around mid July, optimum time in my book, as we drift into high summer.

[knocker]

Tonight's anomalies all agree on unsettled weather in the ten day period.with the upper trough in control, Systems winging in from the west bringing periods of rain and strong winds more likely to affect the north and west. Temps around average.

And looking further afield no huge change

[knocker]

And in the short term the storm potential for the SE in the morning

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ens mean shows the south is most certainly best next week as the Azores high ridge extends across southern areas with a lot of fine and warm weather, not completely dry but much better than further north which looks zonal with breezy, cooler and unsettled conditions but the further south you are, the better it looks next week with very useable weather and a decent start to Wimbledon through most of week 1.

The Azores high influence looks like it will wax and wane as its in conflict with lower heights to the northwest but my impression of the models today is that the Az Anticyclone will become more influential during early July with the jet orientated more favourably sw / ne.

[joggs]

Horrible charts fir mid range,further out.The amount of times the set up is wrong for the UK(summer and winter).You'd think we get punished for the occasional time it falls right.

Arrrrrrgh.Sorry folks lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Very underwhelming output on the whole. No washout yes but just very meh if you ask me. Always a bad sign when you see a big fat circular high in the Atlantic which current model output shows - the higher the heights there the lower heights seem to be here. Just allows depressions to roll around and sit over is. The U.K. Seems to have the winter equivalent of the Icelandic semi-permanent low pressure in summer. I'm sure in the pet the jet had a much easier time of aligning SW-NE. It's always said the jet shifts north in summer - it doesn't seem to do that anymore? The Azores high never seems to exert influence on is like it has done before either. Seems to struggle so much to ridge towards us and form the 'sausage' shape towards us. Instead it is a big round ball doing no one any favours. 

[The Pluminator]

Hey all, new user here. I follow the charts but not exactly sure of al the meanings, I am a bit of an amateur! From what I can see, looks like a continuation of the frankly dreadful June London has had, at least for the SE (I understand June has been better elsewhere). I'm getting married in a month, so I'm hoping for some signs of some normal summer weather for this part of the country ,as I can count on the fingers of a withered hand how many times you could reliably hang the washing out this June! Looking like a daily sun and showers pattern from what I can see, mixed in with some frontal rain for 'unfavoured' parts.

[mb018538]

Pretty dreadful runs this morning. Unsettled by 144 hours on both the GFS and UKMO, and this carries on throughout the entire GFS run. I think we can wave goodbye to the rest of June.

There aren't really any heights to speak of around the polar areas - very low pressure dominated.....yet we still can't get a decent break here! It's like heads I win tails you lose!

[knocker]

According to this morning's GFS the unstable low pressure area finally moves off east on Sunday but not before a final hurrah on Saturday with some quite general outbreaks of possible thundery activity. Thereafter the rest of the week is eminently forgettable with depressions to the NW/N the order of the day and frontal systems traversing the UK bringing rain and strong winds with the north and west particularly in the firing line.

Edited June 23, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Less said about gfs the better, an appalling run for those of us wanting some warmth - i can see where the metoffice are coming from, maybe some decent days in the south but for those up north it really is grim viewing, again..

[mb018538]

ECM completes the disappointing set. Low pressure dominating, best in the SE. The north and west could have a pretty poor week of weather coming up, pretty autumnal rather than mid summer.

[Frosty.]

Do I not like this!

Pretty awful Gfs 00z next week with the jetstream right over the UK and temps struggling, we all see some rain, it's very Atlantic dominated and its the first week of Wimbledon...not much fun on the Murray mound next week!

[knocker]

No surprise but the ecm is pretty much on the same page as the GFS.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

No surprise but the ecm is pretty much on the same page as the GFS.

I'm so mad I could crush a grape!

[Frosty.]

Remember the wonderful hot spanish plum we had on 1st July 2015...this is what the Gfs is showing for 1st July 2016

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Remember the wonderful hot spanish plum we had on 1st July 2015...this is what the Gfs is showing for 1st July 2016

Desperately bad Frosty

Its just the same carp summer after summer, with the odd exception thrown in like 2013. Winters are equally depressing for those of us wanting seasonal weather, we just cant escape the never ending Atlantic attack..

[cheeky_monkey]

charts look very autumnal don't they?

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows a low that's more akin to Autumn and winter rather than summer...

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Desperately bad Frosty

Its just the same carp summer after summer, with the odd exception thrown in like 2013. Winters are equally depressing for those of us wanting seasonal weather, we just cant escape the never ending Atlantic attack..

Yes it's garbage.  Roll on winter!  on second thoughts, scrub that, if it's going to be a Nina mild mush fest

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[Frosty.]

There was some spectacular thunderstorms last night across the SE quadrant but according to hirlam they won't be anything like that later today / tonight, the worst of them missing the southeast.

[mb018538]

I think the HIRLAM model will be proved wrong here! I wouldn't rule out more severe weather at all:

http://www.estofex.org/

ESTOFEX favour more severe weather in the same areas that got pummelled last night. I'd imagine some unlucky spots will be well and truly swamped by the end of the night!