Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS anomalies tonight are essentially much the same as all of the anomalies have been showing for a couple of days.

The 6-10 is particularly bleak with the upper low Iceland so maintaining a WNW flow and continuing unsettled with systems running in from the Atlantic probably favouring a track that will impact the west and north the greater. Of course there will sunny period in between, more so to the SE and temps generally a little below average.

Moving into the 11-15 period the trough does decline but we are still looking at a westerly flow but perhaps not quite so unsettled and temps picking up to a little above average.

Still it was a cracking morning today and Sidney enjoyed a healthy breakfast

Can sidney tell us if there will be a heatwave in July or August?

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is another slap in the face with a wet fish. It shows a generally unsettled outlook with temps on the cool side for most of the time, breezy at times with rain and showers, some heavy and thundery with longer spells of rain and only transient dry and brighter intervals. For the height of summer it's disgraceful and this run now joins the gfs, ukmo and gem which all show a cool unsettled outlook next week and probably beyond.

[B87]

3 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

I did suggest this 2 days ago that mid range models were looking average to poor an in the short term, models do suggest trough an rinse repeat material.....Typical UK Summer fare

Forecast doesn't look 'typical' to me, it looks awful. 19-21c and mostly cloudy every day is not typical UK summer weather. Try dry, partly cloudy and 23-24c.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

Forecast doesn't look 'typical' to me, it looks awful. 19-21c and mostly cloudy every day is not typical UK summer weather. Try dry, partly cloudy and 23-24c.

Not even 19-21c on some days next week, nearer mid to upper teens c....pathetic

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not even 19-21c on some days next week, nearer mid to upper teens c....pathetic

especially galling when south/central/east europe are baking hot, again.Pathetic is about right matey..

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

especially galling when south/central/east europe are baking hot, again.Pathetic is about right matey..

Yes mate, most of you guys on here know how positive I try to be but today has left me feeling as flat as an Azores ridge, it's been squashed by lowering heights to the nw and I'm gutted that the height of summer is going to be a damp squib.

[knocker]

The ecm and NOAA confirm the unsettled outlook for the next 14 days. I'll post the 5 day 850 mb temp rather than the 500mb contour.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm and NOAA confirm the unsettled outlook for the next 14 days. I'll post the 5 day 850 mb temp rather than the 500mb contour.

Yes its looking bleak for warm weather fans for a good 2 weeks - taking us into the first week of July, hoping to see something to be positive about but after seeing this and reading the meto update i just feel utterly fed up..

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its looking bleak for warm weather fans for a good 2 weeks - taking us into the first week of July, hoping to see something to be positive about but after seeing this and reading the meto update i just feel utterly fed up..

Yes it does look pretty bleak and as all the anomalies are in agreement and have been for two or three days this pattern is going to take some shifting.

[Costa Del Fal]

A bit depressing when looking at charts into July that there is no sign of that first 30c yet. What I don't get is how even with low heights near the poles, low pressure still 'seeps' down to the uk so much and sits there? As I said last night, the jet never seems to actually move north anymore. I thought it's summer position was between Scotland and Greenland or at least Iceland. No such thing anymore. What made 2013 so different (for a time at least). It does worry me arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If it was, we're screwed for years to come! Lol. 

But these are not typical summer charts. Again, no massive washout but very underwhelming and the most disappointing aspect is the temperatures knowing that December 2015 will probably be only marginally cooler than some of the upcoming dross. Even worse when everyone else in Europe seems pretty much unaffected. 

Still, lots of summer to go yet but based on recent summers and similar patterns to this, I place a good bet that September/October will as usual be the late summer saviour with high pressure finally sitting over the U.K. again! Lol.

 

Edited June 23, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Costa Del Fal said:

A bit depressing when looking at charts into July that there is no sign of that first 30c yet. What I don't get is how even with low heights near the poles, low pressure still 'seeps' down to the uk so much and sits there? As I said last night, the jet never seems to actually move north anymore. I thought it's summer position was between Scotland and Greenland or at least Iceland. No such thing anymore. What made 2013 so different (for a time at least). It does worry me arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If it was, we're screwed for years to come! Lol. 

But these are not typical summer charts. Again, no massive washout but very underwhelming and the most disappointing aspect is the temperatures knowing that December 2015 will probably be only marginally cooler than some of the upcoming dross. Even worse when everyone else in Europe seems pretty much unaffected. 

Still, lots of summer to go yet but based on recent summers and similar patterns to this, I place a good bet that September/October will as usual be the late summer saviour with high pressure finally sitting over the U.K. again! Lol.

 

Don't get the despondency, all the good summers of recent times, including 2013, had poor spells of unsettled weather. I recall 2013 specifically, which had a cool unsettled spell around this time in June, which many said would take some shifting and I fully remember the doom-mongers on here all but writing off summer, referring to this curse of the jet etc.

Even the first week of July had rather similar looking charts to what we're seeing at the moment:

 

And current charts for around the same time:

Look rather similar to me...

 

Edited June 23, 2016 by Scorcher

[stainesbloke]

18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Don't get the despondency, all the good summers of recent times, including 2013, had poor spells of unsettled weather. I recall 2013 specifically, which had a cool unsettled spell around this time in June, which many said would take some shifting and I fully remember the doom-mongers on here all but writing off summer, referring to this curse of the jet etc.

Even the first week of July had rather similar looking charts to what we're seeing at the moment:

 

And current charts for around the same time:

Look rather similar to me...

 

2013 had a 3 week period in July that was warm to hot and mainly sunny. That was pretty much it; yes, loads better than the previous year (!) and some before that but since when was our summer 3 weeks long? I'd much prefer periods of good weather each month mixed in with the garbage and I'd love to see that jet stream move north of Scotland for once in a summer month!

[knocker]

The EC32 means update has the upper trough declining around the 6th. Thereafter no strong indication of sustained positive heights prevailing but the Azores HP away to the south west does become more influential and indicates some drier and more pleasant weather, temps around average, for the next week until the 14th. We then see the return of the trough and the familiar tale of a N/S split and interactions between the colder air to the NW and warmer air to the SW with temps generally around average perhaps becoming a little below at times which takes us through July. All through this the upper flow is obviously in the westerly quadrant.

This morning's GFS for the next ten days. Not much point in looking beyond that.

Remaining unsettled with frontal systems tracking in from the west bringing spells of rain and perhaps strong winds which will be more orientated towards the north and west with the Azores Hp struggling gain a foothold. thus the better weather more confined the south eastern half of England. Temps around average but inclining towards below towards the end of the ten day period.

Edited June 24, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's ecm is also unsettled out to day ten. Temps starting around average but cooling as the run progresses.

 

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The EC32 means update has the upper trough declining around the 6th. Thereafter no strong indication of sustained positive heights prevailing but the Azores HP away to the south west does become more influential and indicates some drier and more pleasant weather, temps around average, for the next week until the 14th. We then see the return of the trough and the familiar tale of a N/S split and interactions between the colder air to the NW and warmer air to the SW with temps generally around average perhaps becoming a little below at times which takes us through July. All through this the upper flow is obviously in the westerly quadrant.

This morning's GFS for the next ten days. Not much point in looking beyond that.

Remaining unsettled with frontal systems tracking in from the west bringing spells of rain and perhaps strong winds which will be more orientated towards the north and west with the Azores Hp struggling gain a foothold. thus the better weather more confined the south eastern half of England. Temps around average but inclining towards below towards the end of the ten day period.

That sounds dreadful, another summer down the toilet!

[knocker]

Well look on the bright side we may well get a warm winter.

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well look on the bright side we may well get a warm winter.

As usual

[knocker]

The GEFS MSLP anomaly for next week

Edited June 24, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS MSLP anomaly for next week

It's looking a bit blue isn't it

[Frost HoIIow]

17 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Don't get the despondency, all the good summers of recent times, including 2013, had poor spells of unsettled weather. I recall 2013 specifically, which had a cool unsettled spell around this time in June, which many said would take some shifting and I fully remember the doom-mongers on here all but writing off summer, referring to this curse of the jet etc.

Even the first week of July had rather similar looking charts to what we're seeing at the moment:

 

And current charts for around the same time:

Look rather similar to me...

 

It's not often we get a month like July 2013 though which was in the top 10 hottest July's on record. Can never rule out something similar happening again next month but persistent very warm/hot weather ain't normal for the UK. The UK's climate isn't known for month's like July 2013. The default setting is a few days here and there per month of very warm weather in Summer & that's if we are lucky. However 700 miles to our east and south and you rarely go wrong if one likes frequent Summer heat.

[Summer Sun]

T120 and T144 between UKMO and GFS

GFS looks pretty windy in the north, UKMO still unsettled but not as bad as GFS

 

Edited June 24, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The 12 z models so far today are as expected and look generally unsettled and trough dominated. The Gfs 12z op does however show very occasional, brief ridging across the south / southeast bringing a few drier, brighter and warmer spells, but we all have bands of rain pushing in from the west interspersed with sunny spells and showers, many of the showers heavy and thundery. It also looks breezy at times, strongest in the north / northwest where the worst of the unsettled weather occurs and temperatures look close to average in the sunny periods but feeling cool under the cloud and rain.

Looking much further ahead it was encouraging to read that there could possibly be a pattern change around mid July with warm and settled conditions and some humid thundery events. I hope we do have a change of luck beyond the next few weeks.

[Summer Sun]

GEM looking anything but summer on this afternoon's run more like Autumn with these deep lows

[northwestsnow]

GEM is probably one of the worst runs i have seen for mid summer.

GFS is sensational in comparison to that !!

Hopefully the south may get the odd decent day in the coming weeks but for those up north,esp the north west, its so bad its laughable..

[mb018538]

Truly shocking some of these runs. Awful doesn't do it justice.