Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think the HIRLAM model will be proved wrong here! I wouldn't rule out more severe weather at all:

http://www.estofex.org/

ESTOFEX favour more severe weather in the same areas that got pummelled last night. I'd imagine some unlucky spots will be well and truly swamped by the end of the night!

A lot of houses got flooded so for their sake, I hope hirlam is right but in any case, from tomorrow onwards it doesn't look like there will be anything as severe as that in the foreseeable, just normal Atlantic filth.

[knocker]

Says it all really

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Says it all really

Have to agree k, the 3 anomaly charts I use all have a similar idea although this morning the EC variant did have a suggestion of height rises moving into the west of the UK. Otherwise trough is in charge with a tendency for the 500mb flow to be a shade N of West as an average on the odd day for 6-15 days. This has been predicted over the past 3 perhaps 4 days now.

Edited June 23, 2016 by johnholmes

[weatherguru14]

No the charts look like Summer in the UK.. Thats the way it is..

[knocker]

And the EPS 10-15 shows little change.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Have to agree k, the 3 anomaly charts I use all have a similar idea although this morning the EC variant did have a suggestion of height rises moving into the west of the UK. Otherwise trough is in charge with a tendency for the 500mb flow to be a shade N of West as an average on the odd day for 6-15 days. This has been predicted over the past 3 perhaps 4 days now.

And yet the mean charts have been showing something better for the south next week with the Azores ridge extending across southern England on both the gefs / ecm mean in the last few days as well as some peachy op runs.

[Frosty.]

52 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

No the charts look like Summer in the UK.. Thats the way it is..

No they look autumnal today

[mb018538]

It's a definite backtrack, the trough was shown to have much less influence on the charts from 2-3 days ago. It could get stuck and swirl around in this area for a while with strong heights either side. Nowhere to go!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

we cant have a summer without a brief autumnal week or so. Remember the autumnal first week of July 2002 ??

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, 40*C said:

we cant have a summer without a brief autumnal week or so. Remember the autumnal first week of July 2002 ??

The end of June/start of July 1997 wasn't too great either, very autumnal. Had a max of 11C in late June 1997. Not that this summer and that summer appear similar, but things can change. Most of summer is yet to arrive.

Edited June 23, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run should carry a government health warning, it's trough dominated with below average temps and plenty of rain and showers, it actually gets worse as time goes on!...this is not even remotely summery, it's sub standard!

[B87]

Well this summer seems to be quickly going down the drain! Just about to get the cloudiest June on record out the way, and now the forecast shows the first week of July with cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, and highs of only 20-21c. I want our normal summers back!

[Frosty.]

More severe storms on the way for the southeastern quadrant, more flooding likely and hitting the evening rush hour but unlike last night, they should clear away before dawn tomorrow and a quieter day for the SE on friday joining the rest of the UK in sunny spells and scattered showers.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

Well this summer seems to be quickly going down the drain! Just about to get the cloudiest June on record out the way, and now the forecast shows the first week of July with cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, and highs of only 20-21c. I want our normal summers back!

It's been worse in the rest of the UK, not looking good for the next few weeks either, zonal, cooler than average with troughs galore.

[phil nw.]

Quite a pronounced Icelandic trough is forecasted for next week,these are 2 x 3 day mean 500hPa anomaly charts for days 4 -9

which will certainly maintain a stiff westerly pattern through the coming week with those bands of rain and showers affecting many areas at times.Even areas in the south will struggle to see temperatures anywhere near average as the latest London ens graph shows

so it is a poor outlook as we approach the middle of the Summer-the only way is up!

 

 

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Quite a pronounced Icelandic trough is forecasted for next week,these are 2 x 3 day mean 500hPa anomaly charts for days 4 -9

which will certainly maintain a stiff westerly pattern through the coming week with those bands of rain and showers affecting many areas at times.Even areas in the south will struggle to see temperatures anywhere near average as the latest London ens graph shows

so it is a poor outlook as we approach the middle of the Summer-the only way is up!

 

 

It's ruddy awful isn't it Phil, pish poor summer going from bad to worse.

[phil nw.]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's ruddy awful isn't it Phil, pish poor summer going from bad to worse.

Yes Mate no real sign in the latest ens runs of a pattern change into the start of July.That Icelandic trough showing into the new month with only slow signs of it weakening.The main thing is that there is little sign of the jet moving north so the Azores high remains quite flat with any ridging likely to be quite minimal.

[level]

On 6/17/2016 at 08:19, joggs said:

 

Hi, long time lurker here.

At what stage would you all consider that the models are unlikely to significantly change? In particular are we at the stage where that awful Icelandic low is a dead cert for next week?

Does this depend on how far out in time we are or the level of agreement between the models or both?

I ask because I'm going on holiday to Cornwall Saturday for a week and this forums has made for depressing reading the last few days.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, level said:

Hi, long time lurker here.

At what stage would you all consider that the models are unlikely to significantly change? In particular are we at the stage where that awful Icelandic low is a dead cert for next week?

Does this depend on how far out in time we are or the level of agreement between the models or both?

I ask because I'm going on holiday to Cornwall Saturday for a week and this forums has made for depressing reading the last few days.

Looking out to mid next week we've not got any major change this afternoon

All in all fairly typical British summer weather I'm afraid in any sunshine it should be pleasant enough I suspect the wettest weather will be in the far north and west but all parts are likely to see some rain / showers at some point

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Mate no real sign in the latest ens runs of a pattern change into the start of July.That Icelandic trough showing into the new month with only slow signs of it weakening.The main thing is that there is little sign of the jet moving north so the Azores high remains quite flat with any ridging likely to be quite minimal.

I was quite encouraged yesterday but now I'm as flat as that Azores ridge!

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

I did suggest this 2 days ago that mid range models were looking average to poor an in the short term, models do suggest trough an rinse repeat material.....Typical UK Summer fare

Yes you did Greenland but the last few days the Ensemble mean from Gefs / Ecm did show a strong Azores ridge extending across the south which has now been squashed, I posted quite a few charts showing it but it's just typical it's gone pete tong. Charts look autumnal.

[Frosty.]

Ruddy awful charts for the so called height of summer taken from T+144 snapshot of Gfs / Ukmo / Gem 12z which all show increasing trough domination from the northwest with disappointing temps and Lots of cloud, rain and showers, worst in the nw but not much better elsewhere.

[northwestsnow]

Outputs pointing to last week in june being pretty vile with a north westerly and plenty of showers/troughs, more pronounced across the north and west no doubt.

Doesn't look to be an easy route out of this pattern either so i'd suggest 1st week of July looking similar, if anything the models look to be building heights across northern latitudes so it really does look like the pattern will become locked.

Meanwhile most of Europe bakes in the hot sun, taking a week away from the models as i find it thoroughly depressing - its just the same carp year in year out.

 summers HAVE changed, i'm old enough to remember decent weather in june july august, nowadays we just get stuck under a trough for weeks/ months at a time..

I'd say roll on winter but its just the same all year round pretty much...:(

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

I'd say roll on winter but its just the same all year round pretty much...:(

Indeed, I said the same earlier, all we get in winter is mild mush and knocker with his red crayon showing toasty charts and jokes about the woodshed.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight are essentially much the same as all of the anomalies have been showing for a couple of days.

The 6-10 is particularly bleak with the upper low Iceland so maintaining a WNW flow and continuing unsettled with systems running in from the Atlantic probably favouring a track that will impact the west and north the greater. Of course there will sunny period in between, more so to the SE and temps generally a little below average.

Moving into the 11-15 period the trough does decline but we are still looking at a westerly flow but perhaps not quite so unsettled and temps picking up to a little above average.

Still it was a cracking morning today and Sidney enjoyed a healthy breakfast

Edited June 23, 2016 by knocker