Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

According to the ecm the main convective area at 0600 Thursday lies east of a line Portsmouth to Great Yarmouth it then proceeds to move away north east. The rest of the run is typical N/S scenario ending with a depression between Iceland and Scotland with a westerly bringing showers to most of the UK. Temps generally around average.

Edited June 21, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a cracker further south with the Azores high ridging in by sunday and lasting most of next week, becoming warmer, drier and sunnier with temps easily into the mid 20's c and upper 20's for favoured spots, a beauty for wimbledon but then with a more humid thundery breakdown near the end of the run.. speaking of thunder, I think the s / se will see some intense storms on Wednesday and Thursday with a risk of local flooding.

[Matthew.]

The Models seem to be doing well this week for next week. Much agreement in this Ridge of HP influencing Uk weather for next week. A marked difference in last weeks forecast which was clumsy and a bit of a dogs dinner imo.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Temps are actually slightly below..but that's nit picking...

Are you actually in London or greenland? sometimes it's difficult to tell with your comments

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

Temps are actually slightly below..but that's nit picking...

Certainly not away from the SE...

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks good for the southern half of the UK next week, especially the further south you are with a ridge of high pressure across the south with increasingly warm and sunny conditions and temps around the mid 20's celsius which would mean a good start to Wimbledon. 

[Frosty.]

Well that was a strange Gfs 18z tonight, next week doesn't look as good as earlier output today with this weekend's trough taking longer to fill and lower heights to the northwest but then week 2 looks beautiful with high pressure dominant!

It's been a long day, think I deserve some sleep now

[knocker]

First a warning for later today over the SE and possible E. Anglia for possible torrential rain and storms. I think the area on this chart may be a little further west.

As for the GFS

The unstable area of low pressure hangs around to the weekend before giving way to unsettled westerly regime bringing periods of wet and windy weather in the next ten days.

[mb018538]

Not much change this morning, low pressure around Iceland affecting the north and west at times, high pressure waxing and waning from the Azores, but generally keeping things a bit warmer and that bit more settled in the south. No sign of any real heat yet, temperatures around average, or slightly above in the south and east at times. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at Hirlam, this evening and tonight looks severe across the southeastern quadrant of England with torrential rain and embedded violent thunderstorms, flash flooding looks likely. They clear away for a time but then later tomorrow they return across the SE corner.

[knocker]

The ecm has the shallow unstable low hanging around until Saturday before giving way to unsettled westerlies although slightly more of a N/S split than the GFS.

It's a good test of the new coat of Ronseal on the woodshed in readiness for the wet, mild, Nina winter.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

It's a good test of the new coat of Ronseal on the woodshed in readiness for the wet, mild, Nina winter.

I thought we just had a wet, mild, Nino winter..so whether it's Nino or Nina it's going to be wet and mild.. get ready for knockers red crayon. Be afraid all ye who enter here!

[Summer Sun]

Wimbledon should be starting on a dry note if UKMO is correct as should large parts of England and Wales

[Gordon Webb]

58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at Hirlam, this evening and tonight looks severe across the southeastern quadrant of England with torrential rain and embedded violent thunderstorms, flash flooding looks likely. They clear away for a time but then later tomorrow they return across the SE corner.

no doubt the leave campaign will blame this on the french to keep their voters at home lol , seriously though it does look quite nasty in the SE though looking pretty placid elsewhere

[johnholmes]

In the 6-14 day period then the 3 anomaly charts, over the 6-10 day period, all suggest trough dominated rather than ridge dominated. Perhaps a NW-SE split in terms of how changeable/settled? The 8-14 looks no better with the major upper trough sitting down across the country. This pattern, (6-14 days), has been showing now for at least 3 days.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

no doubt the leave campaign will blame this on the french to keep their voters at home lol , seriously though it does look quite nasty in the SE though looking pretty placid elsewhere

I would love to be in the middle of those thunderstorms, it looks action packed in the SE tonight, I'm jealous!

[Frosty.]

Next week looks to have gone pete tong, the 18z last night was a warning and the Gfs 6z has really flattened that ridge across the south with lowering heights swinging down from the northwest..pity

[northwestsnow]

Yes its a shocker of a run really, we just cant seem to shake off these troughs at the moment.

The METO update is ok if you live in the south east but for those further north its looking preety poor as move towards the end of June.

 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its a shocker of a run really, we just cant seem to shake off these troughs at the moment.

 

 

The models haven't changed much, it looked rubbish across the north on yesterday's runs, the only change is the ridge across the south which looked robust yesterday, is now flattened with a large trough to the northwest swinging SE bringing breezier, cooler and more unsettled weather down across most or all of the UK during next week so not good for Wimbledon sipping champagne and eating strawberries on the Murray mound!

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 6z mean shows a filling trough / weakness this weekend followed by a ridge of high pressure building in from the southwest across southern areas for a while next week, so once the weekend showers die out, it's an improving picture across more southern parts of the uk with increasingly dry, warm and sunny conditions but it doesn't last all week, unsettled and cooler weather already across the n / nw spreads south and east to remaining areas but further on the Azores high ridges NE again with a better sw / ne jet profile through early July so the 6z mean is not as bad as the op as far as next week is concerned, at least further south. There are grounds for cautious optimism for further warm / settled conditions as we go further into July too.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z shows a ridge across southern areas early next week but by T+144 there is trouble brewing to the northwest, I imagine it would turn unsettled across the south too from next midweek, the 00z looked better..

[mb018538]

Yes frosty, definitely a bit of a shift from yesterday's more ridge dominated output to today with more low pressure influence. Things looking very average indeed in the mid term, sunshine and showers, with some longer spells of rain at times.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z looks better than the ukmo to me, a ridge of high pressure holds across the south with largely fine and warm weather with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius, not bad for wimbledon week 1!

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yes frosty, definitely a bit of a shift from yesterday's more ridge dominated output to today with more low pressure influence. Things looking very average indeed in the mid term, sunshine and showers, with some longer spells of rain at times.

It could be decent in the south next week, say from Wales, the Midlands, East Anglia southwards and most unsettled and cooler across  northwest uk.

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 12z mean shows the Azores ridge extending across the south next week so there could be a spell of very useable weather down south, the further south the better with fair and warm conditions until later next week. It's a different story further north / northwest where it looks cooler and more unsettled. There is then a more unsettled blip in the south too but the Azores high builds in again but with a more favourably aligned jet so early July could again become fine and warm, at least across the southern half of the UK.