Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

The main theme of the EPS and NOAA anomalies is HP Scandinavia and western Atlantic with a weak trough to the NW and the Mediterranean region. This promotes a very weak westerly flow, more pronounced on the NOAA 6-10 which surface wise could easily translate into something akin to the col previously mentioned with perhaps instability brewing to the south. In the 10-15 period the westerly does become more amplified as the trough and HP to the east decline.

So really the surface evolution for the end of next week is really still up for grabs and I certainly would not  have a lot of confidence in any prognosis at the moment. Can't post the EPS 6-10.

[Weather Boy]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

the spreads on ECM have been supportive of exeters view for next week.  The trend is away from that now and unless the cut off upper lows create havoc, I can see the forecast changing quite soon. 

Very helpful comment thanks.

I thought I'd point out that it's not black or white: the solution could be shades of grey. If you look at the charts Frosty posted, they would produce pretty good conditions in the S and E, poorer towards the NW. It's possible that we end up with a scenario where the High tries to push in but just enough to influence the south, whereas the low is say just south of Iceland making it generally poor in the NW  (or at least worse).

 

Incidentally regarding your comment about a forecast change, tonight there was a noticeable silence about next week whereas on Monday I think it was, there was a resolute 'back to square one' forecast after the weekend's blip. Is that the first sign of a change in view in Exeter? I hope so!

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Very helpful comment thanks.

I thought I'd point out that it's not black or white: the solution could be shades of grey. If you look at the charts Frosty posted, they would produce pretty good conditions in the S and E, poorer towards the NW. It's possible that we end up with a scenario where the High tries to push in but just enough to influence the south, whereas the low is say just south of Iceland making it generally poor in the NW  (or at least worse).

 

Incidentally regarding your comment about a forecast change, tonight there was a noticeable silence about next week whereas on Monday I think it was, there was a resolute 'back to square one' forecast after the weekend's blip. Is that the first sign of a change in view in Exeter? I hope so!

I hope so too

[knocker]

The GFS this morning has the expected ridge from the SW putting an end to this unsettled period.

Bur also as expected this was confined to the weekend and by Monday fronts sweep in from the west heralding an alternate wet and dry period until once more the HP ridges from the south west at the end of the week, perhaps this time of longer duration but don't bank on it.

 

 

[knocker]

Looking at the GEFs 6-10 anomaly and taking into account the ops it's still difficult to get a handle on the period. It's still hinging on whether the trough or HP will be more influential and I suspect nothing in any way definitive will emerge until the weekend

Edited June 16, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows a north south split on Monday and Tuesday before the high moves further north by midweek

ECM shows a similar set up

[knocker]

Interesting the ecm is still going for a col at T144 and then moving the unstable area over central Europe north to Scandinavia. Also moving another unstable area developed over Iberia north to be affecting south east England by Friday 00z. Place your bets.

 

[Matthew.]

All up in the air still but at least we haven't got the same heights further north on GFS and ECM. Hopefully soon we'll have baroclinic gradients pushed right into the arctic so Lows go that way.

[Frosty.]

No problems with temperatures next week according to the Ecm 00z, it looks warm for many, some days warmer than others, Tuesday looks v warm further south, into the mid 20's celsius and potentially into the 80's F across the south / southeast later next week, increasingly humid too, continental warmth with 564 dam thicknesses and a chance of thundery showers as well as sunny periods. I'm certainly not seeing a cool zonal outlook on the Ecm this morning!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Looking at the GEFs 6-10 anomaly and taking into account the ops it's still difficult to get a handle on the period. It's still hinging on whether the trough or HP will be more influential and I suspect nothing in any way definitive will emerge until the weekend

Looking at the anomalies I use and I think the above comment is about right, no model seems to really have got a consistent handle on the 6-10 day range let alone beyond that.

[Faronstream]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No problems with temperatures next week according to the Ecm 00z, it looks warm for many, some days warmer than others, Tuesday looks v warm further south, into the mid 20's celsius and potentially into the 80's F across the south / southeast later next week, increasingly humid too, continental warmth with 564 dam thicknesses and a chance of thundery showers as well as sunny periods. I'm certainly not seeing a cool zonal outlook on the Ecm this morning!

Well 3-5 days ago it looked much better, the high pressure will move fast to the east and then again cool zonal flow just like the last 10 years of  june

[Frosty.]

35 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Well 3-5 days ago it looked much better, the high pressure will move fast to the east and then again cool zonal flow just like the last 10 years of  june

Love your positive attitude!

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the ECM ens It doesn't look too bad it could be a hell of a lot worse that's for sure

Take 2 at getting the right charts

Edited June 16, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

On ‎15‎/‎06‎/‎2016 at 09:32, Summer Sun said:

The ECM ens doesn't look too bad from Sunday some showers around at times still but it could be a lot worse

I had a groundhog day moment there Gavin, could swear you said something similar yesterday...I was right!

Edited June 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I had a groundhog moment there Gavin, could swear you said something similar yesterday...I was right!

Well that's strange the charts have updated yet when I've pasted they over they've gone to yesterday's 00z

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Well that's strange the charts have updated yet when I've pasted they over they've gone to yesterday's 00z

No it was your comments from yesterday and today I meant, not the charts you posted.

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No it was your comments from yesterday and today I meant, not the charts you posted.

Ah well, when looking back on the charts you quoted they were yesterday's date probably why my comment looked similar...

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Ah well, when looking back on the charts you quoted they were yesterday's date probably why my comment looked similar...

Exactly, anyway, as you rightly say, it could be a lot worse!

[Faronstream]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Love your positive attitude!

The GFS are famous for exaggerate high pressure in long range forecasts.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to discussing the 'Model Output' please.

[knocker]

This is nearer the GFS

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows increasing Azores high (ridging) influence towards the end of June and into early July, signs of hope there!

Thoughts and prayers are with Jo Cox MP and her family following the horrific attack earlier this afternoon.

 

Edited June 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm a really poor GFS 12z this evening, cant see ukmo on wz after 96h but looks to be going the way of gfs, things seem to be going a bit downhill to me today..

Edited June 16, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm a really poor GFS 12z this evening, cant see ukmo on wz after 96h but looks to be going the way of gfs, things seem to be going a bit downhill to me today..

Yeah UKMO is stuck on t96 not far away from GFS as you say

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS model I believe in, expect ECM to trend towards it as well, HP is becoming so rare, it's as much as a novelty as southern UK low level snow