Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I'm liking the past few updates from ECM good to see the Azores high getting closer maybe its about to wake up

Agreed, the met office still seem to think there is a summery spell on the way in a two or three weeks time, hope they are right!

[Frosty.]

T+216 looks ok on Ecm 12z but what happened next?

Only been waiting 25 mins to find out. So far

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Where the hell is the Ecm 12z T+240.. lol

Its finally updated could be better be it could be much worse

Edited June 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Its finally updated could be better be it could be much worse

Jeez I waited an extra 30 mins for that. Lol

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Its finally updated could be better be it could be much worse

Jeez I waited an extra 30 mins for that. Lol and then just when it looked like England might win.. they didn't! Typical

[knocker]

Although there is brief ridging next weekend with the ecm and to an extent the 6-10 NOAA  it soon gives way to a rather indeterminate zonal westerly in both the 10-15 EPS and the 8-14 NOAA so a mixture of weather which will need a couple more days to see if a more prominent signal can be detected.

Edited June 11, 2016 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for those last few updates above folks. I was in danger of starting to get a little bit too optimistic for week 2

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

Thanks for those last few updates above folks. I was in danger of starting to get a little bit too optimistic for week 2

Don't give up on week 2 yet, the Gfs 6z showed an anticyclone building north from France bringing increasingly warm and sunny weather.  There is a lot of water to go under the bridge before then...and a lot of water to come out of the sky in the next 6 days or so! .  But don't give up

[knocker]

A slack area of low pressure dominates proceedings mid week bringing a showery regime, perhaps thundery, to many areas. This gives way to transient ridge before the fronts again move in from the west. The key question at the moment is how much influence will the Azores HP have in the future evolution? At the moment it's looking very much like a N/S split but this isn't by any means a done deal.

 

[knocker]

The ecm not hugely different to the GFS but by day 10 it has the Azores ridge more prominent. As this is day 10 and there continues to be uncertainty in this evolution I'll just note it and await the EPS update.

[Matthew.]

The ECM is quite a joy this morning with the Azores having more influence on D10+ and the Low moving away Ne from Iceland

[Frosty.]

Yes Matthew this is much, much more pleasing from the Ecm 00z op, beyond day 10 would get better still!

An Anticyclonic spell would be most welcome

[Summer Sun]

Lovely run from ECM this morning that's 3 or 4 runs now its shown the Azores trying to move in

UKMO also shows high pressure arriving just in time for the weekend

Edited June 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

ECM is pretty nice this morning with the azores high making a move next week and the jet lifting north.

Too far out still to have any sort of confidence but its looking good as it stands, all eyes on the meto updates in the coming days..

[johnholmes]

All 3 anomaly charts have slowly changed from a trough dominated upper air pattern to what looks more ridge dominated in the upper air. This change has developed over the last 2-3 days.

[Frosty.]

Check out the huge improvement in the Ecm 00z compared to the 12z last night at T+240 which was flatter with a more suppressed Azores high, the 00z AH is far better placed / aligned to force the PFJ way north and bathe the UK in fine summer warmth! Let's hope its a sign of things to come and we have some flaming june

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM ens shows high pressure is never far away from t144 probably the chance of some rain / showers in the far north but a fair amount of dry weather for the south at least

Edited June 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The ecm 6-10 anomaly this morning does show faint ridging over the UK but rather flattens it to a westerly flow by day 10. In the 10-15 day period this very much the order of the day with the Azores HP to the SW and weak trough to the NW with westerly streamlines. The question still remains how much of the Uk will be influenced by the HP. Taking a snapshot on the 24th from the 850mb chart it's very much a N/S split so still all to play for.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows welcome respite from the changeable showery weather just in time for next weekend as a nice ridge of high pressure builds across the UK bringing some pleasant conditions, especially further south. Looking into the first half of week 2, with high pressure building in across the near continent, the south benefits with largely dry, increasingly warm and sunnier weather until midweek whereas it remains more unsettled in the north but at least this run shows some better weather once next weeks trough eventually fills in situ and pressure rises.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next weekend shows a ridge of high pressure bringing welcome respite from the showers and further ahead, with high pressure close to the south, it would mean that southern parts see the best of the fine and warm weather but progressively more unsettled further north, at least the Azores high looks like having more influence beyond the week ahead, at least for the south. Hopefully what we saw at the end of the Ecm 00z will be what we can look forward to beyond day 10 and bring widespread settled and warmer weather.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[DTHFCJ]

 

looks like a nice warm up too...;) some very warm runs there after a blip.....

thats showing the 12z mind not the 6z which is much better dont know why its showing the 12z?

Edited June 12, 2016 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

 

looks like a nice warm up too...;) some very warm runs there after a blip.....

thats showing the 12z mind not the 6z which is much better dont know why its showing the 12z?

 

edit..done.;)

Fingers crossed DTHFCJ...would be very nice to see the Azores high do the right thing and bring the UK a spell of flaming june

[DTHFCJ]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Fingers crossed DTHFCJ...would be very nice to see the Azores high do the right thing and bring the UK a spell of flaming june

 

agree Frosty the 6z's are much better too..;)

 

 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2016 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

 

looks like a nice warm up too...;) some very warm runs there after a blip.....

 

agree Frosty the 6z's are much better too..;)

Yes fingers crossed, just checked MO update and longer term it still indicates increasingly warm and sunny weather across the south, eventually spreading to most of the UK which means they still anticipate the Azores high will become much more influential by the end of June and more particularly during July.. hope they are right, they say its a low chance at the moment but lets be positive here and HOPE we have a summer that stays in the memory for the right reasons!

Edited June 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

On the meto update on the bbc, Tomasz schafernaker has gone from yesterday showing high pressure dominating, to today saying only a brief ridge before things go rapidly downhill again? Doesn't seem to match any output I'm seeing...