Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The Net/w MR take on next Tuesday..

 

WOW that shows a 31 in the manchester area, that really is very hot !!

[Summer Sun]

This morning's GEM keeps the warmth / heat till Thursday

ECM has similar ideas

[markyo]

Got that feeling again that models are overcooking the temps again,warm oh yes,hot very likely,but breaking the 30c barrier in Northern areas i doubt.

[mb018538]

On ‎08‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 19:07, markyo said:

Pretty certain that won't come off,again models just having a play with the data,very unreliable at this time of year especially.

Even 2 days ago you said you were pretty certain the heat wouldn't come off - look what's going to happen....it's getting hot, and the models were right. Not so unreliable after all.

[sundog]

39 minutes ago, markyo said:

Ok,can we have a show of hands the folk who DON'T find this model output interesting? Anybody with their hands up better have a think even if like myself are not a heat fan. I would agree with the stunning word which has been used is correct. Very unusual week coming up,much to keep even me interested!

I find it a bit disturbing tbh,gw and all that. Anyway looks like my neck of the woods will be avoiding much of the heat britan will get next week thankfully.

Edited September 10, 2016 by sundog

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Even 2 days ago you said you were pretty certain the heat wouldn't come off - look what's going to happen....it's getting hot, and the models were right. Not so unreliable after all.

Miss call on my part for this one,stand by what i said though,models at plus 5 days aren't really anything to build your hopes on if that's your weather.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, markyo said:

Got that feeling again that models are overcooking the temps again,warm oh yes,hot very likely,but breaking the 30c barrier in Northern areas i doubt.

More likely undercooking, BBC weather mention 31-32c for parts of southern UK next week, somewhere would reach 33-34c if the Ecm 00z verifies as it prolongs the very high T850s.

[markyo]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

More likely undercooking, BBC weather mention 31-32c for parts of southern UK next week, somewhere would reach 33-34c if the Ecm 00z verifies as it prolongs the very high T850s.

I'll stick to my guns on this one,Northern areas probably about 27ish max,but as usual could be very wrong!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, markyo said:

I'll stick to my guns on this one,Northern areas probably about 27ish max,but as usual could be very wrong!

Fair enough mark, I was really discussing southern uk as that is where the main core of heat will be, 31-32c as high as 90F in mid September, absolutely sensational and if the heat persists through wednesday into thursday as the Ecm 00z shows, it would go a notch or two higher..34c 93f is not out of the question somewhere in southern / southeast England around next Tuesday / Wednesday.

[Singularity]

Travelling today but as far as I can make out from mobile browsing, we're seeing a typical case of GFS being a bit flatter with the Atlantic jet stream than the other models, which results in it engaging more with the low over France, causing it to drift determinedly NNE while the other models generally have it drifting east as it remains separated from the main jet stream.

I find the move by UKMO toward keeping the low south, after that particularly progressive run yesterday evening, to be a significant development. ECM looks the best of all thing if you want several days of toasty weather and a shot at 33*C somewhere in the SE on Tue or Wed.

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Fair enough mark, I was really discussing southern uk as that is where the main core of heat will be, 31-32c as high as 90F in mid September, absolutely sensational and if the heat persists through wednesday into thursday as the Ecm 00z shows, it would go a notch or two higher..34c 93f is not out of the question somewhere in southern / southeast England around next Tuesday / Wednesday.

Yep,in in agreement Karl,wouldn't be surprised if 34c was even bettered in the south east. So thankful i'm further north!

[Nick L]

Not much model discussion going on in here...Can we please keep general weather chat in appropriate threads please? 

[Djdazzle]

Amazing model output for mid September, with 90F on the cards. That figure hasn't been reached in September since 1949 if my information is correct. Would be very noteworthy indeed.

Edited September 10, 2016 by Djdazzle

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, markyo said:

Yep,in in agreement Karl,wouldn't be surprised if 34c was even bettered in the south east. So thankful i'm further north!

Yes it's exciting times for the south for sure according to the latest models, it couldn't be hotter than the Ecm 00z shows in mid September..gob smackingly amazing 91F

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday is still on course to be a hot one with 32c or maybe even 33c possible somewhere in the south

Still very warm on Wednesday just not quite as widespread

Edited September 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[markyo]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's exciting times for the south for sure according to the latest models, it couldn't be hotter than the Ecm 00z shows in mid September..gob smackingly amazing 91F

Karl this is why i love the uk weather,never know what it'll come up with!! Gob smacking.....mmm yep on this one very much in agreement,will be very interesting to say the least.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

This morning's GEM keeps the warmth / heat till Thursday

ECM has similar ideas

technically that chart is Wednesday evening/night, but still think only SE areas nice on Thursday

[markyo]

Both meto and bbc now showing only 25c for Tuesday in my neck of the woods,suspect as i thought a little moderation in the forecast temps. But we will see,could change again.

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, markyo said:

Karl this is why i love the uk weather,never know what it'll come up with!! Gob smacking.....mmm yep on this one very much in agreement,will be very interesting to say the least.

The warmth and sun will be nice next week but I'm very interested in the potential for some decent storms. Could be quite severe.

[cheese]

14 minutes ago, markyo said:

Both meto and bbc now showing only 25c for Tuesday in my neck of the woods,suspect as i thought a little moderation in the forecast temps. But we will see,could change again.

Their forecasts are rubbish - usually underestimates temperatures.

[markyo]

23 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

The warmth and sun will be nice next week but I'm very interested in the potential for some decent storms. Could be quite severe.

Hopefully you'll enjoy that sunshine next week,but as you rightly say the potential is there for something special storm wise,not for me though!

[markyo]

20 minutes ago, cheese said:

Their forecasts are rubbish - usually underestimates temperatures.

To a certain extent i agree,slight moderation down in the forecast temps though is more than likely in my opinion.Will be a interesting what ever happens!

[Summer Sun]

Little change Monday with the 1st signs of the heat moving up into the south

Tuesday is a scorcher

Wednesday has some upgrades for the heat in the west

The west is most prone to rain

Upgrades to the warmth in the north for Thursday too

06z left 12z right

Edited September 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Gosh, topsy turvy chart SS, not often north hot/south cool

[phil nw.]

A number of posts today are really just one line chat sequences without any real model output discussion. 

Can we please get back on topic and use the other threads for general chit chit.

Thanks all.