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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
13 hours ago, Nick F said:

Certainly tomorrow's date record of 28.3C set back in 1934 is under threat.

The max is higher than that Nick, see my post, close to Bawtry near Doncaster.

 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
6 minutes ago, thestixx said:

 

Go to the Wetter page, 850mb charts and surface charts to cover that period

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Out of interest which model does the accuweather app use? is it GFS?

Screenshot_20160913-120319.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Here you got chaps - that exceptional UK record chart from 1906:

Rrea00119060902.gif Rrea00219060902.gif

20c isotherm well through the heart of the UK - no wonder Yorkshire reached 35c!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Heathrow reached 33c 91f..I'm so pleased that this hot spell has delivered, and still 2 more hot days to come, 30c in the southeast tomorrow and 29c on thursday before it becomes cooler and fresher from the west during friday but still reaching 22c across the SE..another feature is the warmth of the next few nights with minima in some areas of 19-20c!

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Jezzer Explorer

Jezzer

Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
Posted
8 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

34.4c Gravesend Kent!

Possibly not a record, but has it ever been as hot at this stage in September?

September 2016 Heat.png

I think this is the hottest it's ever been so late in the year, nothing that I can see in the records beats it. I also wonder if the UK's hottest day of the year has ever been recorded so late in the season. Great to see this spell lasting into the week.

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Popular Post
Posted
19 hours ago, Nouska said:

On the AROME zoom,there's even a tiny pocket of 34C forecast for tomorrow - what is the September record?

3299_zox7.png

 

Nice job on the 34C

 

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

12z output looks half decent still, high pressure still holding on for dear life, and no steam train of Atlantic lows heading our way yet. Most of the unsettled stuff staying towards Iceland.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

So pleased about the 34.4c 94f achieved today, the tv experts this morning said 31c would be the highest!:D

Still another 2 days of hot weather to come across most of England and Wales, not as hot as today but hot enough!

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

So pleased about the 34.4c 94f achieved today, the tv experts this morning said 31c would be the highest!:D

Still another 2 days of hot weather to come across most of England and Wales, not as hot as today but hot enough!

west and NW though not joined in, here storms instead, think max around 22°, tomorrow should be hotter here

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gfs 12z doesn't show a change to proper autumn across the south, it shows a lot of high pressure close to or over the south during the next few weeks with temps generally respectable for mid-late sept but further north / north west does look cooler and windier with spells of rain with lower heights to the nw / n.

In the meantime, the heat goes on for wed / thurs across southern uk with some decent cape encouraging thundery showers to develop but still with good sunny spells until it gradually turns cooler and fresher from the west on Friday but the weekend shows ridging further south bringing mainly dry and bright weather. Next week it's a typical n / s split.

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
4 hours ago, Nouska said:

So proud of good old Gravesend wouldn't want to live anywhere else 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snow Shoes said:

Personally speaking I've had enough of this hot muggy weather and would welcome Autumn proper. I don't mind summer but its Autumn now and I would prefer the weather to reflect that.

Personally speaking I'm going to miss this lovely reminder of summer when it's gone but actually the outlook doesn't look bad further south on the Gfs 12z and well done to those on here who stuck their neck out and said low 90s F was achievable!:D

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

So pleased about the 34.4c 94f achieved today, the tv experts this morning said 31c would be the highest!:D

Still another 2 days of hot weather to come across most of England and Wales, not as hot as today but hot enough!

I thought this reading was questionable? Even so, it seems to have been used by the Metoffice.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I thought this reading was questionable? Even so, it seems to have been used by the Metoffice.

Well I just go by the information in the media and BBC news online reported that figure of 34.4c 94f but even if it's questionable, Heathrow reached 32.8c 91f so it's been a great day weatherwise and more very warm / hot weather to come in the next few days across the south of the uk, especially the southeast according to the latest models..I will miss this when it's over, there is plenty of time for autumnal weather in Oct / Nov but I like good weather in september.:)

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Wouldn't assume the next two days will be much cooler. ARGEPE going for 32C tomorrow and 31C on Thursday! Generally hottest in the south east but places that didn't do so well today may get their turn in the next two days :)

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I thought this reading was questionable? Even so, it seems to have been used by the Metoffice.

Aye, CC - it certainly rang alarm bells, at first. But, when we consider that very many other places have also recorded their hottest day (so far!:D) this year, today, it's maybe not all that questionable?

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Aye, CC - it certainly rang alarm bells, at first. But, when we consider that very many other places have also recorded their hottest day (so far!:D) this year, today, it's maybe not all that questionable?

Fair enough :) 

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

some off topic posts creeping back into the discussion despite repeated requests over the past 24-48 hours from the moderators......some of you really should know better, so please, stay on topic with model output discussion only......thanks

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Please keep this on topic ! Thankyou!:yahoo:If you want some fresh air then Friday will suit you!

challenge.png

challengex.png

freezing.gif

South-Park-no-life.jpg

raised-eyebrows-o.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

As no one has mentioned the ECM....broadly similar, trough parked near Iceland effecting the NW of the UK, the SE faring best nearer the high pressure.

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fat chad Apprentice

fat chad

Posted
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny days with the odd cloud.
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
Posted

Could this calm August/ September weather be anything to do with the very low sunspot count?? I know some say it has fog all to do with things, but considering it controls all of our climate, could it affect the way that the jet stream kicks in our direction??? Don't have a go.... Genuine question.. Thanks.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Morning all

This mornings output looking much more seasonal compared to what we've had of late - dare I say it even distinctly cool on the UKMO 144 chart with a brief northerly component!

Not desperately unsettled again, with high pressure just about clinging on in the south, but rain at times. Could be worse!

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