Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[markyo]

Looking strongly like 2 day warm period in my area then thankfully a sharpish cool down. Shouldn't be to bad as i doubt humidity levels will be to high but we shall see. Time will tell.Think many are now fed up with the warm nights and uncomfortable sleeping,but again that is what only some of us feel,many i know relish this type of weather......no idea why!

[damianslaw]

Models suggesting another repeat version of this week for next week, another plume event occuring Tuesday-Thursday with temps widely into mid-high 20's once again, 30 degrees a possibility is one or two favoured spots before we see the atlantic crashing through again.

Always worth keeping an eye on the jetstream profile, current forecasts show its position changing once we get to next weekend, with a more direct path across the country and for the first time in a bit we end up on the colder side. Mind during September it is prone to error thanks to tropical storm activity, which incidentally is having a major impact on conditions right now, fuelling warm air advection just to our west and locking the jet on a very northerly position.

A look outside the window right now, and it definately feels and looks like autumn. Next week in look and atmosphere despite promised high temps and sunshine certainly won't feel or look like high summer, gone is the fresh green of early summer, light levels distinctly different, sun much less warm as well. 

I'll say it again wake me up when september ends -last time I say this, promise!

[Frosty.]

We are still on course for another plume event next week according to the GEFS 12z mean..don't put the BBQ away yet!

 

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ECM keeps the heat in place till Wednesday quite widely then still warm on Thursday but not quite as hot as the start of the week

Edited September 9, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

50 minutes ago, markyo said:

Looking strongly like 2 day warm period in my area then thankfully a sharpish cool down. Shouldn't be to bad as i doubt humidity levels will be to high but we shall see. Time will tell.Think many are now fed up with the warm nights and uncomfortable sleeping,but again that is what only some of us feel,many i know relish this type of weather......no idea why!

It looks very humid to me for at least Monday to Wednesday- not sure what your idea of high humidity is?? In fact the ECM keeps most of us in the warm humid air until at least Thursday with the warmth peaking on Tuesday/Wednesday. The GFS has also come more on board with the ECM when compared to this morning.

[Singularity]

It perplexes me how the majority of the models are lifting the low pressure system north through the UK at a time when the jet is angled NW-SE well into Europe, and the upper evel trough is over Iberia.

  

This outcome from ECM makes a lot more sense in that respect. Now just watch the low lift north anyway, out of sheer spite 

Edit: Funny what Damian says about the sun being much less hot now; two days ago I was sitting out on the (plastic!) garden chair with it facing away from the sun, and it heated up to the point that I had to lean forward to avoid getting singed. I've never had that problem in summer so I can only imagine that the lower angle of the sun allowed heating of a larger area of chair (i.e. the whole back as opposed to the seat and arms).

Anyway, with light winds and temperatures into the 30s I expect it'll feel absurdly hot for the time of year in The Southeast on Tuesday (perhaps Weds too if ECM has it right).

Edited September 9, 2016 by Singularity

[markyo]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We are still on course for another plume event next week according to the GEFS 12z mean..don't put the BBQ away yet!

 

Agree,could be interesting further south. Short lived though i feel then a possible more mobile setup

[cheese]

Just now, markyo said:

Agree,could be interesting further south. Short lived though i feel then a possible more mobile setup

Looks hot your way too markyo!

[Scorcher]

Sheffield is very much in the firing line for the warm air markyo. I get a sense of denial in your posts.

[Summer Sun]

Remaining warm in the south on Friday

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z really turns up the heat for the first half of next week..I think another plume is incoming with hot sunshine and thunderstorms, more like the height of summer.

[markyo]

Just now, cheese said:

Looks hot your way too markyo!

mmm ok...... your probably right! Just this time of year i can cope better! Being that grumpy old fart i am Hoping for a peak of 25ish but we'll see

[mb018538]

BBC look east has shown 32c here for midweek! Looking like 30c will be topped with 850s that high, and a continental feed. One last hurrah perhaps.

[markyo]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Sheffield is very much in the firing line for the warm air markyo. I get a sense of denial in your posts.

Thank you so much for such a gem of info,one can hope though! I feel denial is the best option sometimes. Mid 20's,poss 26 at a push is showing to be honest,things may change though,interesting to say the least

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

BBC look east has shown 32c here for midweek! Looking like 30c will be topped with 850s that high, and a continental feed. One last hurrah perhaps.

It leads to the obvious question as to what the latest dates on record are for 33, 32 and 31*C.

Looks like ECM was being a bit enthusiastic with the ridge from the Azores on the preceding two runs. Odds are the low departing the UK will neither lift out fast and far enough to allow a ridge to follow on behind, nor drift down into Europe and allow the ridge to build over the top... but that assumption is based on Sods Law, and those alternatives remain very much a possibility. For just how long can we escape the embrace of the (weakly) low GLAAM state?

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It leads to the obvious question as to what the latest dates on record are for 33, 32 and 31*C.

Looks like ECM was being a bit enthusiastic with the ridge from the Azores on the preceding two runs. Odds are the low departing the UK will neither lift out fast and far enough to allow a ridge to follow on behind, nor drift down into Europe and allow the ridge to build over the top... but that assumption is based on Sods Law, and those alternatives remain very much a possibility. For just how long can we escape the embrace of the (weakly) low GLAAM state?

 

September - 35.6c 2nd September 1906 Bawtry, Hesley Hall (South Yorkshire) - This figure does have some reservations so it might not be 100% accurate

October - 29.9c 1st October 2011Gravesend

[Summer Sun]

Don't like the heat? want some fresher air?

I bring you good news but it's 8 days away yet   

[knocker]

The ecm has the Azores ridge edging in Weds/Thurs getting rid of that nasty instability and the brief interlude of quite warm temps in the east/south east.The ridging is quite short lived as it gets squeezed by low pressure to the north resulting in a NW flow veering northerly with the Azores ridging to the west. Not a particularly warm evolution.

Edited September 9, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Another thing of interest on the GEFS 12z mean is the increasing influence of the Azores high during the second half of September..but I'm going to enjoy next weeks bonus hot plume first!

[Matthew.]

44 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It leads to the obvious question as to what the latest dates on record are for 33, 32 and 31*C.

.                                                                 For just how long can we escape the embrace of the (weakly) low GLAAM state?

Is tropical storm activity over-riding weak GLAMM influence? We should be in phase 1 by the forecast soon.

[Newberryone]

Ah Karl, the same Azores high that will no doubt have you along with 99.99% on here reaching for the Prozac from Nov-Feb inclusive. 

You know it's true! 

[Man With Beard]

My take on it all - well maximum heat levels look highly likely to come our way now - it's all about where the rain will be - studying all the charts, it looks to me like Tuesday is most likely to be clear except in the far west, possibility of thundery imports from France but that would be late in the day. Surprisingly to me, Wednesday also looks to be clear of rain for most - again the west most likely to get the rain, a chance that the front might buckle and straddle southern areas but that's only a chance. A realistic chance of 30C being exceeded on two successive days then, and 25C being exceeded in a large number of places. But it's all by fractions...

Edited September 9, 2016 by Man With Beard

[mb018538]

How can the bbc come up with such varying forecasts?? Look east say 30c Monday and 32c here Tuesday, whereas the national forecast and website go more for 25/28c??? :

[sundog]

38 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Ah Karl, the same Azores high that will no doubt have you along with 99.99% on here reaching for the Prozac from Nov-Feb inclusive. 

You know it's true! 

Funny isn't it ,those egging on the Azores high now,but in a few weeks time they will be cursing the bloody thing lol. Keep it the hell out of the way if possible IMO

Edited September 9, 2016 by sundog

[cheese]

28 minutes ago, sundog said:

Funny isn't it ,those egging on the Azores high now,but in a few weeks time they will be cursing the bloody thing lol. Keep it the hell out of the way if possible IMO

In December yes, but in October? Nah - too early in the season to care. A warm, settled October will suit me and most people just fine.

Edited September 9, 2016 by cheese