Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, DJ RY said:

 

Ah that's a shame, thanks anyway for the reply

No worries

Anyway, I agree with what Phil said on the previous page, it looks like becoming increasingly blocked / settled during the course of next week. In the meantime, following today's warmth (24c 75f on the Kent coast) it's going to become cooler from the northwest once a narrow band of rain clears the southeast tomorrow morning with sunnier skies following from the west and just a few sharp showers dotted around and then it's a weekend of two halves with saturday cool and showery but then sunday dry and mainly sunny.. Nights look chilly with a risk of ground frosts in rural areas and even slight air frost in the north of the uk.

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows a predominantly settled spell developing early next week and continuing until the end of the run further s / e with just the far northwest exposed to the atlantic for most of the run which becomes more pronounced by T+240 but for most of the uk it looks like a pleasant outlook from Sunday.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

Yes incredible charts for October. A real hope now for sustained high pressure. Longer term this may turn positive for cold lovers 

[mb018538]

I wouldn't go over the top! They are reasonable, without being exceptional! The longer the wind and rain fest is held back the better for me....my least favourite type of weather. A nice benign spell would be most welcome.

[knocker]

By Weds of next week the EPS has strong ridging up through the Baltic and with the trough mid Atlantic a SW flow over the UK with a significant NW/SE bias as the jet runs SW/NE. As the week progresses the pattern de-amplifies and moves east so that by the weekend the trough is just to west of the UK and the upper flow has veered so the likelihood is of the weather being generally being more unsettled with temps back to average. Looking further ahead a zonal flow becomes more prevalent with LP to the NW and HP to the SW with the HP to the east no longer a significant player.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean pretty much mirrors the operational with a robust anticyclone building to the east and holding back the atlantic throughout next week so for most of the uk away from the far northwest it's looking benign and very pleasant next week with above average / warm temperatures, especially further s / se where temps could reach the mid 70's F as they did today.

[johnholmes]

It is looking more likely that an upper ridge is going to be the main player 6-10 with both the EC and the NOAA 6-10 this evening showing fairly similar ideas.

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes incredible charts for October. A real hope now for sustained high pressure. Longer term this may turn positive for cold lovers 

Perhaps!

GFS sniffing out an evolution that could match what MO are suggesting for later in autumn.

[mb018538]

00z output doesn't look bad - GFS turns the warmth back on for a while, with high pressure dominating most of the run.



No signs of the Atlantic powering through just yet.

[knocker]

Today

Currently some very strong winds in Scotland gusting to 70 mph. These will ease during the day but still frequent heavy showers. Elsewhere in England a cold front and rain belt, currently orientated the Wash to the SW is moving slowly SE clearing the SE later. Behind brighter with some showers,

The GFS this morning is not dissimilar to last night in the reasonable time frame.

The shallow low with frequent showers Saturday giving way to a quieter, drier, Sunday. Then we have the expected amplification with the ridge building to the east and the Atlantic trough which gives a surface analysis of a large area of low pressure in the Atlantic and fronts stalled over Ireland.

A quick glance at the above chart will indicate where the complication is likely to arise with a shortwave forming in the circulation and running NE bringing some wet and windy weather to the NW on Tuesday/Weds with showers in England.

As the week progresses the upper pattern de-amplifies with the trough weakening accompanied by a resurgence of the Azores ridge leaving most of the UK, the NW being the exception,  under the influence of the high pressure.

 

[Matthew.]

The latest ECM has 6/7 days next week for England and Wales above 1020mb

[knocker]

 

Edited September 29, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows the high centered over Scandinavia extending over to the UK keeping any low-pressure systems away from us

[johnholmes]

11 hours ago, johnholmes said:

It is looking more likely that an upper ridge is going to be the main player 6-10 with both the EC and the NOAA 6-10 this evening showing fairly similar ideas.

rare that I repeat my own post but just once!

ECMWF-GFS reaffirms this idea, so now all 3 are fairly similar, with the synoptic models also showing towards this idea post 120h.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

and the Net Wx for 240h, well any of the hours shown out to 240 really, showing a surface ridge east and NE of the UK with most frontal activity going NW or affecting only the far NW of the country

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=04805beb866b9a274424c3da34bf5ea0

finally the Fax charts from UK Met also showing most frontal activity staying W or NW of most parts. How fine (blue sky) and warm to be decided on closer synoptic runs. No sign of any deep cold incursions though-yet.

[Matthew.]

The ECM showed blocking earlier for next week but the GFS takes us over 1030mb as the anticyclone strengthens in Northern europe

Edited September 29, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[mb018538]

UKMO looks wonderful tonight - strong ridge in just the right place to deliver a bit of warmth. If it verifies I think we'd be looking at maybe 22-24c in favoured spots. In high summer it would have been a 90f set up! GFS isn't bad either.

[Man With Beard]

Re: Matthew's post - And there is the "knife-edge". Theres a point on that chart where the warm southerly draw meets something more easterly. I would argue that the easterly is going to get to the UK on your chart. Not that anything seriously cold will result, but a downward trend in temperatures will happen at this time of year and the longer the setup is so, we could see maximums drifting down from 19 to 14, or even lower as time goes on.

[sundog]

21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Re: Matthew's post - And there is the "knife-edge". Theres a point on that chart where the warm southerly draw meets something more easterly. I would argue that the easterly is going to get to the UK on your chart. Not that anything seriously cold will result, but a downward trend in temperatures will happen at this time of year and the longer the setup is so, we could see maximums drifting down from 19 to 14, or even lower as time goes on.

I suppose it begs the question when does an easterly start giving below average temps instead of above average. Second half of October? 

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z is a peach, it shows an intensifying scandi high increasingly influencing the uk with warm continental breezes drifting our way..excellent charts for early october.

Edited September 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The upper low in SE Europe is complicating matters vis where will the surface HP be centred? It looks distinctly possible the the UK will not be within the circulation of the HP to the east but more the ridging from the Azores with any inclement weather confined to the NW.

Edited September 29, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

The ECM develops a full blown easterly to spice things up! Increasingly cool and windy in the east, warmer and sunnier in the west if this verifies. So many options on the table!! 

[Matthew.]

I'm struggling to contain myself after seeing what the ECM is predicting. 1035mb could edge into eastern England I don't want go post chart crazy so look forward to seeing them posted soon

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a cracker next week and beyond, becoming warmer and settled across the uk due to an intensifying scandi anticyclone..couldn't ask for better in early october really..Great run, even by T+240 it looks wonderful.

Yes I agree Matthew, the Euro models are incredible this evening regarding next week.

 

Edited September 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

A quiet start to October with high pressure dominating

[Matthew.]

There's no other word for it Frosty. Incredible charts. Where's the Atlantic gone! The most settled strongest anticyclone I've seen in a long long time

[blizzard81]

On 26/09/2016 at 15:37, blizzard81 said:

But this is what the GFS was showing on most of it's operational runs for the same time frame. ECM now jumps on board only for GFS to jump ship - a familiar tale. I expect GFS to climb back on board soon. A fine, warm first half to October beckons.

Well, I don't usually blow my own trumpet but it looks like the models are singing from the same hymn sheet as me