Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Just to clarify MWB I wasn't pointing the finger specifically at you although of course you are a paid up member of the cold coven.

Not at this time of year Knocks, I prefer to eak out as much warmth as possible and besides a cold October will be devastating for my CET challenge! I was quite encouraged to see the GFS 06Z go for the back-door SEly in its latter stages but I'm not clinging to that olive branch particularly firmly, and studying the uppers shows how hard it is to get rid of cold air once it arrives, at this time of the year:

  

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

 

Oh, was just going a wee bit crazy there at the very thought of the s-word.. Sorry  

Hopefully it won't end up being the other s-word that ends with t..which applied to all of last winter!

I must say the models are looking more interesting with talk of rather cold temps by day and night for the next few weeks.

Edited October 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[DR(S)NO]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hopefully it won't end up being the other s-word that ends with t..which applied to all of last winter!

I must say the models are looking more interesting with talk of rather cold temps by day and night for the next few weeks.

You know what Frosty... At least it feels seasonal at the moment.... Something we really don't see often enough!!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, DR(S)NO said:

You know what Frosty... At least it feels seasonal at the moment.... Something we really don't see often enough!!

True, and it will be nice to hear the words becoming colder from the east, hopefully that will apply to the upcoming winter. It's also interesting that some on here have been saying this blocked pattern would last through next week because only yesterday the met office were calling for an unsettled Atlantic breakdown from early next week and today they have backtracked with the increasingly chilly easterly pattern set to continue..

[johnholmes]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

True, and it will be nice to hear the words becoming colder from the east, hopefully that will apply to the upcoming winter. It's also interesting that some on here have been saying this blocked pattern would last through next week because only yesterday the met office were calling for an unsettled Atlantic breakdown from early next week and today they have backtracked with the increasingly chilly easterly pattern set to continue..

Perhaps due to the possible effect of the latest hurricane? Also the 500mb anomaly charts, usually fairly good accuracy in both 6-10 and to a lesser extent using just NOAA in the 8-14 day periods are less than definite over the past week. Variations in positions of upper ridges and troughs which may be hurricane influenced. Not until we see no storms getting into the North Atlantic in the 6-15 day period can we rely on any model output from whatever source in my view. 

[mb018538]

I've also stopped looking for warmth now - it was great while it lasted, and those late September days over 30c were a joy.....but not it's time to look to the north and east (and not the south and west) for the winter we all deserve!  Very interesting weather patterns now for sure.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Eyes down - OK it's a start.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I've also stopped looking for warmth now - it was great while it lasted, and those late September days over 30c were a joy.....but not it's time to look to the north and east (and not the south and west) for the winter we all deserve!  Very interesting weather patterns now for sure.

I'm still looking for warmth, may as well have  the Atlantic back, 'cause from Friday my location looking rather unsettled, 

[sundog]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm still looking for warmth,

Good luck with that so 

[knocker]

How does that song go, oh yes, "So near yet so far away".

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z is firming up on locking in an increasingly chilly outlook..nice

[mb018538]

Looking slightly unsettled in the east with that upper trough digging closer for the start of next week - and chilly too. Won't be loads in the way of rainfall, just a lot of cloud, a keen breeze and some patchy ppn.

[blizzard81]

Is the ECM broken?

[knocker]

The evolution of the GEFs anomalies in the ten day time frame is not unfamiliar. In the latter period it gradually declines the Scandinavian HP but at the same time promotes NE ridging mid Atlantic north of the UK. Simultaneously it also promotes the upper low to the south east of the UK to become more adjacent and extending into a larger area of LP orientated W-E  This would portend some quite unsettled cool  weather drifting in from the east. But just to reiterate none of this is a done deal.

[Matthew.]

23 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is the ECM broken?

Just starting to come through nowReally looking forward to this!

[knocker]

 

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z shows the increasingly chilly blocked pattern locking in and lasting until beyond T+240 hours with temps falling below average with Ely / NEly winds which will make a nice change from the recent heat and very high humidity..this run certainly whets my appetite for winter, I feel cautiously optimistic this time around!

[markyo]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEM 12z shows the increasingly chilly blocked pattern locking in and lasting until beyond T+240 hours with temps falling below average with Ely / NEly winds which will make a nice change from the recent heat and very high humidity..this run certainly whets my appetite for winter, I feel cautiously optimistic this time around!

Thanks for getting my hopes up! ....still way to far out yet though,time will tell

[Frosty.]

50 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is the ECM broken?

I've often wondered that 

[Mucka]

ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer. 

Edited October 4, 2016 by Mucka

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer. 

Got to be a good sign!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer. 

It's great watching the cold pool advancing west over Europe 

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM is broken, much of central/eastern Europe in the freezer. 

I see why the ECM is late tonight - the latter stages could be x-rated!! 850s under minus 8 into eastern Europe - alignment at T192 would send the beast from the east in our direction!

Stalled low in the Atlantic throws up enough of a southerly in the end but my that was close!

Edited October 4, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Got to be a good sign!

Yeah interesting times but very different Northern blocking to 00z with split vortex.

 

Of course as much as the snow line will look impressive marching West across Europe at this time of year it can disappear just as dramatically with a return to a Westerly zonal flow.

Something like this could be quite prolonged though I imagine.

Edited October 4, 2016 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

Another 4 to 6 weeks this place would be in meltdown with charts like this

But as its early October temps would be a bit below average with cloud rolling in off the north sea